pen_artist Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 After yesterday's surprise uptick, figured creating a thread might be good for what models have really highlighted-- consistently-- as being the most active stretch, is warranted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 lots of sun this morning, feels juiced af even with the light e winds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 Day 2 Enhanced introduced. The way it is outlooked, has the making of a long term wind event, possible derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 lots of guidance selling an early morning long track MCS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 klot currently 86/82 dews def pooling along the stationary boundary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 severe watch just got expanded WAY west, covering i think all of ILN's FA now. pretty surprising, given neither the hrrr or rrfs develop much (if any) convection here through sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Interesting discrepancy between the CSU and NWS on the area of severity. CSU seems to be leaning more south central IN / southern OH event. I guess we'll see what 00z offers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 Doubt it verifies verbatim but 18z HRRR sniffing out some max wind gusts of 100 mph in DuPage co. with the midday complex tomorrow. Taking it with a grain of salt but thinking we'll see some 80+ gusts if consistency continues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Possum Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 The thunder last night was unbelievable, some of the loudest I can recall hearing.As for today, sun just started peeking out in Humboldt Park. Feels juicy out there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 2 minutes ago, Possum said: The thunder last night was unbelievable, some of the loudest I can recall hearing. As for today, sun just started peeking out in Humboldt Park. Feels juicy out there. . Yeah banged good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 hot hand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 klot now @ 90/84 about as juiced as this area gets 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Had pea size hail at home with yesterday afternoon's round of activity. The evening/night round of activity didn't amount to much, kind of splitting by north and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 The hires Nam was bleh, but that hrr run was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 3 hours ago, nvck said: severe watch just got expanded WAY west, covering i think all of ILN's FA now. pretty surprising, given neither the hrrr or rrfs develop much (if any) convection here through sunset. Expired the watch two hours early amidst totally blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Big towers going up south and east of me with peaks of sun. Skies to the north and west a blanket of gray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Blue box just issued. HRRR still coming in hot for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Flooding may end up being the bigger headline around here if the timing doesn't play out right with the rounds of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Storms are firing a county or two south of me. And they’re probably going to stay down there most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 It looks like the mode will be slow moving semi-supercells just like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 What was the point of that watch. Canceled after an hour lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 hour ago, nvck said: Flooding may end up being the bigger headline around here if the timing doesn't play out right with the rounds of storms Look out Fort Wayne. Storms are lined up like a train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Look out Fort Wayne. Storms are lined up like a train. already a radar estimated 1-1.25" along an axis just south of the city, in about an hour. feel like we'll start to FFWs issued in another hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Really cool seeing the outflow boundary from the storms to the south of me on radar and in person. side note: it feels so much nicer out here now lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is. there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Pretty beefy RAOB this evening from DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Pretty beefy RAOB this evening from DVN. good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is. there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard. I'm wondering about that and also in the 2:43 PM IWX AFD they mentioned signs of the boundry pushing south into central Indiana tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is. there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard. development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning. the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours. if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 My windows are covered in moisture and I’m well north of the main risk areas. Feels juiced but I guess we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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