August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[Roger Ramjet]

11 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This will be DC's first wetter than normal month in a while.

Dry for some, wet for most. I've had so much rain since the 4th of July that I have had to mow every 5 or 6 days, and every time I need to scrap grass from my lawnmower deck.

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Roger Ramjet said:

Dry for some, wet for most. I've had so much rain since the 4th of July that I have had to mow every 5 or 6 days, and every time I need to scrap grass from my lawnmower deck.

Same here. I think the I95 folks haven't been as lucky, or unlucky, depending on whether you like to mow grass <which I do not!>

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly. 

Yup. Both the Euro and GFS, heck even the GEFS, try to pop a 594dm ridge from Tennessee to North Carolina next week. The upside of this is that it opens the door to some NW flow potential in these parts.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts? Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

[frd]

This is a crazy ring of fire pattern next week,  unfortunately it looks like most of the activity will be North of us, very little rain the next 7 to 10 days. 

 

 

[SolidIcewx]

2 hours ago, frd said:

This is a crazy ring of fire pattern next week,  unfortunately it looks like most of the activity will be North of us, very little rain the next 7 to 10 days. 

 

 

Why am I not surprised..

[stormy]

9 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts? Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

There is no guarantee that an "EL Nino" will ever "kick in"

I have on more than one occasion said that El Nino guarantees nothing.

1965 had a +2.1 Nino.   November and December of 1965 were very dry for D.C..

Less than a half inch for each month.  There are far too many who think with a strong Nino, we will soon turn wet.

That is simply not guaranteed.   It is likely, but not guaranteed.

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts? Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

As many other respected ENSO folks on here have said, we need to wait until we get deeper into autumn to see if and how this El Nino would couple with the atmosphere. Some early signs suggest this has already starter, brand it would be great to see this thing lead to a wet autumn. A couple decent regionwide shakers would end this persistent drought.

[frd]

 

Yikes,  here we go again.  

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Yikes,  here we go again.  

 

It never ends.  3 month arid pattern followed by a couple wet weeks that benefits some and fails the usual places, followed by another region-wide drought pattern.  It's been going on for years.

[frd]

 

 

 

 

[frd]

[JenkinsJinkies]

I just don't understand how a modeled wetter pattern can completely and utterly collapse in a matter of days. If this niño fails to deliver is this the new normal now? I thought climate change meant more rain for this region...

[Gloves]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I just don't understand how a modeled wetter pattern can completely and utterly collapse in a matter of days. If this niño fails to deliver is this the new normal now? I thought climate change meant more rain for this region...

Your profile pic, is it you or a vibe or something? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

46 minutes ago, Gloves said:

Your profile pic, is it you or a vibe or something? 

This will send you down a rabbit hole

[nw baltimore wx]

Wtf???

Am I now on a watch list?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Summer’s last prolonged flex might be loud, but the end is in sight
 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Summer’s last prolonged flex might be loud, but the end is in sight
 

 

Until we get a week of 80s in mid October.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Until we get a week of 80s in mid October.

We'll hit 80s into November, and wager this is the year we hit 80 in December. 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Until we get a week of 80s in mid October.

Hopefully a big ole heat dome sits over the lakes getting LAKE ONTARIO water nice and warm. I want that thing putting out dangerously intense snow bands by Dec 1 right over Barnes Corner. I've never rooted for a warm fall in my life until now lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Hopefully a big ole heat dome sits over the lakes getting LAKE ONTARIO water nice and warm. I want that thing putting out dangerously intense snow bands by Dec 1 right over Barnes Corner. I've never rooted for a warm fall in my life until now lol

Where's Lake Ontario?  Is that in Canada?  Lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hopefully a big ole heat dome sits over the lakes getting LAKE ONTARIO water nice and warm. I want that thing putting out dangerously intense snow bands by Dec 1 right over Barnes Corner. I've never rooted for a warm fall in my life until now lol

But lake effect snow never makes it over the Alleghenies.

[dailylurker]

38 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

But lake effect snow never makes it over the Alleghenies.

That's a problem for this area. Barns Corner is in the heart of the snowbelt. Legend has it there's been 500+ inch winters.