August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[Roger Ramjet]

11 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This will be DC's first wetter than normal month in a while.

Dry for some, wet for most. I've had so much rain since the 4th of July that I have had to mow every 5 or 6 days, and every time I need to scrap grass from my lawnmower deck.

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Roger Ramjet said:

Dry for some, wet for most. I've had so much rain since the 4th of July that I have had to mow every 5 or 6 days, and every time I need to scrap grass from my lawnmower deck.

Same here. I think the I95 folks haven't been as lucky, or unlucky, depending on whether you like to mow grass <which I do not!>

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly. 

Yup. Both the Euro and GFS, heck even the GEFS, try to pop a 594dm ridge from Tennessee to North Carolina next week. The upside of this is that it opens the door to some NW flow potential in these parts.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts? Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

[frd]

This is a crazy ring of fire pattern next week,  unfortunately it looks like most of the activity will be North of us, very little rain the next 7 to 10 days. 

 

 

[SolidIcewx]

2 hours ago, frd said:

This is a crazy ring of fire pattern next week,  unfortunately it looks like most of the activity will be North of us, very little rain the next 7 to 10 days. 

 

 

Why am I not surprised..

[stormy]

9 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts? Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

There is no guarantee that an "EL Nino" will ever "kick in"

I have on more than one occasion said that El Nino guarantees nothing.

1965 had a +2.1 Nino.   November and December of 1965 were very dry for D.C..

Less than a half inch for each month.  There are far too many who think with a strong Nino, we will soon turn wet.

That is simply not guaranteed.   It is likely, but not guaranteed.