SouthCoastMA Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 September is the new August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 next Tuesday could be fun, esp. SW NE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: next Tuesday could be fun, esp. SW NE? Its a really good pattern for MCS developing across the Great Lakes and propagating ESE across the Northeast (whether that ends up being just to our southwest or more across northern VT/NH and ME). One thing really lacking is some stout EML advection, though the GFS does hint at some plumes of steeper lapse rates trying to move in at times but they lose their integrity. If we can get a clear signal for EML advection we could rock next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 had a quick shower here but everything's hitting a brick wall around the CT/NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: had a quick shower here but everything's hitting a brick wall around the CT/NY border This is a good thing...allowing more breaks of sun and stronger instability to build. There is a subtle pre-frontal trough back across eastern PA to west of the Hudson. This should slide east during the day and that's when we'll see storms develop across the Hudson and western MA/CT...at least this is what I ws envisioning yesterday occurring but guidance does show this eastward shift. I still think it will be an active day for western sections 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is a good thing...allowing more breaks of sun and stronger instability to build. There is a subtle pre-frontal trough back across eastern PA to west of the Hudson. This should slide east during the day and that's when we'll see storms develop across the Hudson and western MA/CT...at least this is what I ws envisioning yesterday occurring but guidance does show this eastward shift. I still think it will be an active day for western sections Always appreciate your input-thanks! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 In shocking news … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Nice mid-level meso on that cell headed towards Fairfield County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 NW CT and Berks. Yawn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In shocking news … Unbelievable….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 What's with this recent uptick of tropical systems going straight from Invest to Tropical Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What's with this recent uptick of tropical systems going straight from Invest to Tropical Storm I've noticed that too over recent seasons... I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling. When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if/when it occurs ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, yet NHC has the basin in a nada status. It's because no model has it developing. The models went through an evolutionary upgrade over the last 10 to 15 years. The Katrina's and Maria's of the last 20 years sort of lit a candle under the ass of R&D. Proven in their forecast statistics. They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring of prior generations. I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is. They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Dolly is highly likely being dry air inhibited when looking at the SAL products at Wisc EDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've noticed that too over recent seasons... I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling. When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if/when it occurs ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, yet NHC has the basin in a nada status. It's because no model has it developing. The models went through an evolutionary upgrade over the last 10 to 15 years. Katrina and Maria's sort of lit a candle under the ass of R&D. Proven in their forecast statistics. They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring of prior generations. I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is. They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map - That's an interesting take. And by no means am I speaking negatively about the NHC or questioning this in a negative manner, its just an observation. At least with Dolly, I'm a bit surprised at the "comeback" made over the last 24-hours. It was clearly being impacted by a hostile environment but it survived and, at least for a brief period, is in a less hostile environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting weather from app?? You post NOYES app all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You post NOYES app all the time Never have I once done that . Never have I posted any kind of 14 day forecast app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 19 hours ago, kdxken said: I corrected the 100% in a later post. Here's the actual breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Here comes Newark’s 6th cane force wind gust of the summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Lake Ontario is now Lake America.. you cant even make this stuff up 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lake Ontario is now Lake America.. you cant even make this stuff up Lake Michigan is now Lake Epstein. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Preparing for a stormy afternoon in the berks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 9 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: Preparing for a stormy afternoon in the berks. Preparing for a sunny afternoon in the Tol’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Couldn't happen to nicer folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Part of the problem is their infrastructure with drainage is crumbling...not too mention everything is clogged with garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Preparing for a sunny afternoon in the Tol’s SPF 30 advised. The winter will make up for your drought, watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 31 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lake Ontario is now Lake America.. you cant even make this stuff up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Just now, jlauderdal said: SPF 30 advised. The winter will make up for your drought, watch and wait. No rain drought .. just storm drought. Rest assured , I will absolutely see more tstorms this winter than I did in the summer. I mean zero is an easy number to beat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 14 minutes ago, kdxken said: Wow so much winning. Tackling the important issues. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 While we’re at it, I’m not a fan of the name of our region sharing a name of the country we defeated to gain our freedom. Please change New England to New America 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: While we’re at it, I’m not a fan of the name of our region sharing a name of the country we defeated to gain our freedom. Please change New England to New America Right ... and "New America" blithely so named because it stole the land from the "old Americans" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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