Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[SouthCoastMA]

September is the new August

[Torch Tiger]

next Tuesday could be fun, esp. SW NE?

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

next Tuesday could be fun, esp. SW NE?

Its a really good pattern for MCS developing across the Great Lakes and propagating ESE across the Northeast (whether that ends up being just to our southwest or more across northern VT/NH and ME). One thing really lacking is some stout EML advection, though the GFS does hint at some plumes of steeper lapse rates trying to move in at times but they lose their integrity. If we can get a clear signal for EML advection we could rock next week

[Brian5671]

had a quick shower here but everything's hitting a brick wall around the CT/NY border

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

had a quick shower here but everything's hitting a brick wall around the CT/NY border

This is a good thing...allowing more breaks of sun and stronger instability to build. There is a subtle pre-frontal trough back across eastern PA to west of the Hudson. This should slide east during the day and that's when we'll see storms develop across the Hudson and western MA/CT...at least this is what I ws envisioning yesterday occurring but guidance does show this eastward shift. I still think it will be an active day for western sections 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is a good thing...allowing more breaks of sun and stronger instability to build. There is a subtle pre-frontal trough back across eastern PA to west of the Hudson. This should slide east during the day and that's when we'll see storms develop across the Hudson and western MA/CT...at least this is what I ws envisioning yesterday occurring but guidance does show this eastward shift. I still think it will be an active day for western sections 

Always appreciate your input-thanks!

[Damage In Tolland]

In shocking news …

[weatherwiz]

Nice mid-level meso on that cell headed towards Fairfield County. 

[CoastalWx]

NW CT and Berks. Yawn.

[Cyclone-68]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In shocking news …

Unbelievable…..

[weatherwiz]

What's with this recent uptick of tropical systems going straight from Invest to Tropical Storm

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What's with this recent uptick of tropical systems going straight from Invest to Tropical Storm

I've noticed that too over recent seasons...  I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling.  

When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if/when it occurs ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. 

Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, yet NHC has the basin in a nada status. It's because no model has it developing.  The models went through an evolutionary upgrade over the last 10 to 15 years. The Katrina's and Maria's of the last 20 years sort of lit a candle under the ass of R&D. Proven in their forecast statistics.  They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring of prior generations.

I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is.  They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map -

[Typhoon Tip]

Dolly is highly likely being dry air inhibited when looking at the SAL products at Wisc EDU. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've noticed that too over recent seasons...  I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling.  

When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if/when it occurs ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. 

Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, yet NHC has the basin in a nada status. It's because no model has it developing.  The models went through an evolutionary upgrade over the last 10 to 15 years. Katrina and Maria's sort of lit a candle under the ass of R&D. Proven in their forecast statistics.  They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring of prior generations.

I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is.  They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map -

That's an interesting take. And by no means am I speaking negatively about the NHC or questioning this in a negative manner, its just an observation. At least with Dolly, I'm a bit surprised at the "comeback" made over the last 24-hours. It was clearly being impacted by a hostile environment but it survived and, at least for a brief period, is in a less hostile environment. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Getting weather from app??

You post NOYES app all the time 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You post NOYES app all the time 

Never have I once done that . Never have I posted any kind of 14 day forecast app 

[Ginx snewx]

19 hours ago, kdxken said:

I corrected the 100% in a later post. Here's the actual breakdown.