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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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OceanStWx
OceanStWx

This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest. Around here you typi

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant s

vortex95
vortex95

Not that many sig tor (F2/EF2+) in NNE on record.  Attached is a list of the farthest N ones.  Any tor documented close to the Canadian border outside the CAR area are rare.  Only one since 1975 I

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest.

Around here you typically have much more stable air to the southeast, the complete opposite of central CONUS severe weather. Northwest flow allows stable air to be in the right top quadrant relative to the storms. Check out the line of cumulus marking the surface based instability. Also the forecast for theta-e later today. That marks the warm front, and storm motion is parallel to this. So this is the exact orientation you need for long tracked supercellular storms.

164c2423-52c9-4e14-9ba9-004dd5686e37.png

0ece6e8b-2638-4400-95fc-85c43859cd3e.png

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, we had putrid lapse rates that day. A ton of shear, but not a lot of instability. You know what that means in SNE.

The same can be said anywhere really when it comes to lapse rates. There was a setup in the midwest a few months back which was flagged with higher tornado probabilities and potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes but that never materialized...and it was a setup in which they had relatively weak lapse rates. It truly is hard to get a full fledged higher end severe weather outbreak without the present of steep lapse rates. 

The lapse rates here that day were horrible...but I recall they weren't modeled to be as bad as what actually transpired. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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As of 11:45 here in Central NH we have a very thick smoke layer above us.  The whole landscape is yellowish and the sun disc is sharp but so dim you can look at it directly.  A very eerie situation.  It is only 74.7F.  I have no idea how this will impact the severe threat later but it is the densest smoke layer above us that I have ever seen.  Meanwhile at near ground level I can see mountain ridges 30 miles distant.

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Winter Wizard

Winter Wizard

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12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

As of 11:45 here in Central NH we have a very thick smoke layer above us.  The whole landscape is yellowish and the sun disc is sharp but so dim you can look at it directly.  A very eerie situation.  It is only 74.7F.  I have no idea how this will impact the severe threat later but it is the densest smoke layer above us that I have ever seen.  Meanwhile at near ground level I can see mountain ridges 30 miles distant.

In theory, wildfire smoke could be a potential fly in the ointment since it reduces surface heating and limits instability to an extent. Though the question is how much would that mix down to the surface? In this case, it probably wouldn't and I think the surface dynamics are more than enough to overcome that. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

image.png.48a2c7dee2e33fc65afabd06c5ea1c16.png

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

In theory, wildfire smoke could be a potential fly in the ointment since it reduces surface heating and limits instability to an extent. Though the question is how much would that mix down to the surface? In this case, it probably wouldn't and I think the surface dynamics are more than enough to overcome that. 

It has mixed down to MWN, so it's starting to get into the near boundary layer. The EML may help keep that off the surface until late though.

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