Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[tiger_deF]

Come to papa 

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 9:47 AM, tamarack said:

Acclimation can occur without moving a bit.  Sometime next month or early September we'll have a morning in the mid-upper 30s and it will feel quite chilly.  In January that would be shirtsleeve weather.  The early heat this month hit hard due to tall dews and not having had much real heat before that.  With several weeks of mostly CoC since then, another big heat next month will take some more acclimation.  Could happen - we've had only 2 heat waves here, each 3 straight 90+, and one came last year.  In 28 summers, we've had 90+ on 23 days.  June leads with 9 and August is 2nd with 7.  Only 3 in July and 2 each for May/September.

30 thunder days in AK?  That's twice my average here and last year we had a mere 5.  Go far NW for SVR?

Yes, acclimation can be in a very short period.  I recall one big cold period in New England in the late 00s I think, and for several night in a row, when I went out to my car to go to work, it was 0 F.  Then it "warmed" to 20 F the next night, and it felt really good!

My avg yearly in Woburn MA for days w/ thunder is 23.  It gets up around 30 in western parts of the region.  Most I know of for a single location in New England is 42 days in ASH in 1988 (15 days in July alone - MQE also had 15 days that month for an all-time record!).  @weatherwiz and @ineedsnow snow would faint in ecstasy if that happened to them!    @CoastalWxwould still be like MEH!

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 9:04 AM, weatherwiz said:

Was intrigued in potential for a strong or two within CT today should anything pop but I wonder if there is a window early afternoon for a localized damaging wind gust or brief tornado across SE MA. 

So nothing ended up happening from a "Scott Spinner" POV.  However, look at the radar at 1521z 7/29 attached. The HRRR fcst radar nailed this configuration w/ the flared cells E of the low center.  One could easily think this was a TS landfall in SNE!  Actually the fact it slowed and stalled near the MA/NY border and then drifted E reminded me of what TS Henri in 2021 (several spinners from that!).

So why no spinners?  I don't know but all the ingredients were there.  However, as we know, just b/c all the ingredients are there does *not* guarantee sensible wx results one would expect (or wants to in @CoastalWx case!) occurs.  And this happens a *lot* for spinner setups!

How many times do the SCP and SIGTOR look great on paper, and nothing happens beyond run-of-the mill svr cells, barely mesos?  These parameters only account for some of what is going on the atmosphere, so you have to use w/ caution.  And the line between no tor and tor, or a bunch of meh QLCS spin-ups and honkin' long-tracked, intense tors is rather narrow.  *One* thing off and it can be "ruined!"

So in hindsight, I'd make the same exact fcst for potential spinners for this past event. And really how often do you get a discrete, compact sfc low that is non-tropical "make landfall" over LI and CT in the warm season?  Not that often!  Yes, a summer Nor'easter in a sense but things are much different this time of year, owing to much higher PWATs and more CAPE available superimposed on synoptic-scale lift!  And the fact that low pressures in the summer are smaller and not as strong as their cool season counterparts actually favors more rain and higher flood risk, b/c things tend to move slower and the synoptic forcing does not overwhelm the mesoscale, so you can get weenie RW++ stationary boundaries like we had in ern NY this past event!

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 10:17 AM, CoastalWx said:

All those storms last few years? Now it's

 

 

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 12:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Jancock says 1/1000 year type event 

 

Don't get me started on 1-in-X year events!    There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what they say.  The reference points/periods for climo to calculate such a stat for any given location and wx parameters are fluid/relative, to say the least.  But never let such details get in the way of hype or a narrative!

Event return periods that extend beyond our period of record are curved to fit our period of record based on numerous statistical assumptions.  This means just one extreme event can drastically alter return rates, giving a false sense of what actually has changed.

If you divide whole world into county warning areas like what is done in the U.S., then you would have about 394,000 zones.  So a 1-in-a 1000 yr flood would happen many, many times a year.  It is not exactly 394x as the math would suggest due to non-linear factors, but it is still a lot, relatively speaking, and this is just for one type of wx event.  How many are there out there to measure/quantify?  And this is just choosing CWA for spatial, you can play games w/ numbers forever, slicing and dicing down location areal coverage to a single point for any wx parameter/measurement, and create any scenario as to frequency and trends to your hearts consent!  This goes back to "how to lie (or exaggerate) w/ statistics" notion.

The law of large numbers and averages results in many 1-in-X year events every day all over the world.  It is similar to winning the lottery, odds are astronomically against, but many ppl each year win despite these odds b/c so many ppl play, and many repeatedly, so this *guarantees* there will be winners!  It is a big planet and the atmosphere has endless combinations that in are high flux all the time, and it is going to split out big/record wx events at times w/ their frequencies waxing and waning over various time cycles naturally.

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 2:52 PM, weatherwiz said:

McDonalds overall is awful now...not that it was ever particularly great but its extremely overpriced and significantly worse quality. Can let to to like Applebees or Chilis and get a better burger dinner for only a few extra bucks. The McDonalds across from BDL isn't bad though. Had a double quarter pounder from there not long back and it was great.  

I used to go McDonalds.  But I can not go there out of good conscience b/c of the ridiculous prices.  Funny, Taco Bell and Little Caesars, there prices have not gone up much at all over the last 5 years.  So I do not want to hear inflation or min wage mandates excuses.

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

This.is true.. when I saw the springfield tornado I could of got closer.. my heart was like do it.. but my brain was saying your close enough and try to live another day to see another one 

@ineedsnow wants this!

 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, BrianW said:

More rain coming in for BDR. Hopefully they will pull of the wettest July on record.

Fell just short. 12.33"  Unless they happen to get TRW+ today.

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

never fails 

GFS has been persistent in showing this thing for many days now, but that mean little b/c it is the GFS and it is beyond a week.  However, the recent ECMWF runs now show a distinct wave moving W S of the subtropical ridge and then recurving offshore.

But @ineedsnow *only* cares about this I bet from the 00z GFS!  "It's just GOTTA come up!"  
 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There won't be a cane. 

"But, but, the ECMWF is now at least showing a disturbance that recurves!" @CoastalWx needs to be reminded this is a "home grown" type of hurricane season.  Last 'cane to hit New England was a super El Nino based on RONI 1991-92 -- no, not the Bobby Brown song! LOL.

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Water temperatures are way too cold once you quickly get north of NC and there will be a lot of upwelling early next week.

You would need probably a high end 3 or 4 approaching the Carolina coast and rapidly accelerate northward to get a cane hit here. Otherwise any system is would transition to extra-tropical or sub-tropical extremely quickly. 

Yah, but maybe we can get a grazing PRE like Arthur from July 2014!

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

GFS has been persistent in showing this thing for many days now, but that mean little b/c it is the GFS and it is beyond a week.  However, the recent ECMWF runs now show a distinct wave moving W S of the subtropical ridge and then recurving offshore.

But @ineedsnow *only* cares about this I bet from the 00z GFS!  "It's just GOTTA come up!"  
 

Pattern would really have to change to bring something up.. but I wouldn't mind a NC trip 

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. 

Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. 

That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues.

Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. 

Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. 

Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. 

Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well off the East Coast or north of the Antilles seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years. 

 

Far too much focus on SSTs -- column TPW (and by extension instability) and shear is what it is all about.  All the anomalously high SST/OHC is meaningless if the atmosphere does not cooperate.  Something that seems to elude many --  "but the ocean is SO hot!!!"  TCs are more tenuous that the MSM thinks.  A lot has to line up for one to form, and even more for one to get intense.

SSTs are more than warm enough around the globe in much of the tropics and subtropics year-round to support strong TCs, and how many named storms form each year and how many get intense?  And formation is confined to distinct parts of the year in each basin, again showing how what goes on in the atmosphere dictates things.

Of all the 3 primary factors, SSTs are least important.  You can get hurricanes up to Cat 2 status w/ SSTs below the 26 C threshold, and min hurricanes as low as 20 C as long as the TPW and shear are favorable.  But if the wind shear is high and/or the column is dry, you get nothing to even develop in the first place, despite torch SSTs!

You don't need to do research or run a model to see this, Empirical observations alone over time clearly show this.  That's a sig problem these days, some are so caught up in "what the models say" they forget to look at what actually happens in the real world, currently and in the past.  Empirical. real-world observations override what models say every time.  Basic common sense and logic!

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, jlauderdal said:

SAL puts the lid on it for the next 7-10 days, 2nd week of august looks better but El Nino is in full control until further notice so keep expectations muted for now.

SAL is another big factor, esp. in recent years.  2024, the SAL was dominant in the MDR.  The 700 and 500 temp anomalies were impressive, and that why the heart of the season was squashed and why we did not get the fcst "2005 redux" in 2024.  I recall seeing 0 C at 500 in part of the MDR in Aug-Sep 2024, and this was w/ no ridging present.  It is not often you get 0 C at 500.  In the core of a Cat 1 hurr or higher and under the hottest continental ridges.  So to have 0 C at 500 just "there" w/ nothing atypical synoptically, you want to take about "extreme?"  The SAL was so strong in 2024, it extended to the EPAC and that suppressed things big time initially, resulting in the latest first NS in the EPAC since reliable satellite records (1970).

In 2025, what stood out was the African dust outbreaks.  They usually peak in June and wane in July, but they went on into Sep, again knocking down MDR formation big time.  2025 was unique b/c all the major hurricanes except Melissa peaked and got intense outside the deep tropics.

So what happened in just the last two seasons in the ATLC were non-trivial as to suppression of TC activity, and something that needs to researched more and included in the discussion.  It is esp. important b/c of all the TC basins in the world, the ATLC is the most variable.
 

[kdxken]

Feels like summer.

[kdxken]

 Ocean State needs to make a service call to Worcester. Pretty sure it didn't reach 85 yesterday. 

 

 

 

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 Ocean State needs to make a service call to Worcester. Pretty sure it didn't reach 85 yesterday. 

 

 

 

Strange. The CLI says the error happened at 840am, but the 6hrly max at 18z looks ok. I assume the daytime observer augmented the bad data out. But yeah, the ASOS crapped the bed after that. Only problem is the 85° was apparently still stored for the 24hr max at 5z.

The high should be 74°.