Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Torch Tiger]

It was an amazing summer.  Really looking forward to the extreme cold, snow that the winter of 2026-27 will bring! *

[tiger_deF]

Come to papa 

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 9:47 AM, tamarack said:

Acclimation can occur without moving a bit.  Sometime next month or early September we'll have a morning in the mid-upper 30s and it will feel quite chilly.  In January that would be shirtsleeve weather.  The early heat this month hit hard due to tall dews and not having had much real heat before that.  With several weeks of mostly CoC since then, another big heat next month will take some more acclimation.  Could happen - we've had only 2 heat waves here, each 3 straight 90+, and one came last year.  In 28 summers, we've had 90+ on 23 days.  June leads with 9 and August is 2nd with 7.  Only 3 in July and 2 each for May/September.

30 thunder days in AK?  That's twice my average here and last year we had a mere 5.  Go far NW for SVR?

Yes, acclimation can be in a very short period.  I recall one big cold period in New England in the late 00s I think, and for several night in a row, when I went out to my car to go to work, it was 0 F.  Then it "warmed" to 20 F the next night, and it felt really good!

My avg yearly in Woburn MA for days w/ thunder is 23.  It gets up around 30 in western parts of the region.  Most I know of for a single location in New England is 42 days in ASH in 1988 (15 days in July alone - MQE also had 15 days that month for an all-time record!).  @weatherwiz and @ineedsnow snow would faint in ecstasy if that happened to them!    @CoastalWxwould still be like MEH!

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 9:04 AM, weatherwiz said:

Was intrigued in potential for a strong or two within CT today should anything pop but I wonder if there is a window early afternoon for a localized damaging wind gust or brief tornado across SE MA. 

So nothing ended up happening from a "Scott Spinner" POV.  However, look at the radar at 1521z 7/29 attached. The HRRR fcst radar nailed this configuration w/ the flared cells E of the low center.  One could easily think this was a TS landfall in SNE!  Actually the fact it slowed and stalled near the MA/NY border and then drifted E reminded me of what TS Henri in 2021 (several spinners from that!).

So why no spinners?  I don't know but all the ingredients were there.  However, as we know, just b/c all the ingredients are there does *not* guarantee the sensible wx results one would expect (or wants to in @CoastalWx case!) occurs.  And this happens a *lot* for spinner setups!

How many times do the SCP and SIGTOR look great on paper, and nothing happens beyond run-of-the mill svr cells, barely mesos?  These parameters only account for some of what is going on the atmosphere, so you have to use w/ caution.  And the line between no tor and tor, or a bunch of meh QLCS spin-ups and honkin' long-tracked, intense tors is rather narrow.  *One* thing off and it can be "ruined!"

So in hindsight, I'd make the same exact fcst for potential spinners for this past event. And really how often do you get a discrete, compact sfc low that is non-tropical "make landfall" over LI and CT in the warm season?  Not that often!  Yes, a summer Nor'easter in a sense but things are much different this time of year, owning to much higher PWATs and CAPE available superimposed on synoptic-scale lift!  And the fact the low pressures in the summer and smaller and not as strong as their cool season counterparts actually favors more rain and higher risk, b/c the things tend to move slower and the synoptic forcing does not overwhelm the mesoscale, so you can get weenie RW++ stationary boundaries like we had in ern NY this past event!

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 10:17 AM, CoastalWx said:

All those storms last few years? Now it's

 

 

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 12:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Jancock says 1/1000 year type event 

 

Don't get me started on 1-in-X year events!    There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what they say.  The reference points/periods for climo to calculate such a stat for any given location and wx parameters are fluid/relative, to say the least.  But never let such details get in the way of hype or a narrative!

Event return periods that extend beyond our period of record are curved to fit our period of record based on numerous statistical assumptions.  This means just one extreme event can drastically alter return rates, giving a false sense of what actually has changed.

If you divide whole world into county warning areas like what is done in the U.S., then you would have about 394,000 zones.  So a 1-in-a 1000 yr flood would happen many, many times a year.  It is not exactly 394x as the math would suggest due to non-linear factors, but it is still a lot, relatively speaking, and this is just for one type of wx event.  How many are there out there to measure/quantify?  And this is just choosing CWA for spatial, you can play games w/ numbers forever, slicing and dicing down location areal coverage to a single point for any wx parameter/measurement, and create any scenario as to frequency and trends to your hearts consent!  This goes back to "how to lie (or exaggerate) w/ statistics" notion.

The law of large numbers and averages results in many 1-in-X year events every day all over the world.  It is similar to winning the lottery, odds are astronomically against, but many ppl each year win despite these odds b/c so many ppl play, and many repeatedly, so this *guarantees* there will be winners!  It is a big planet and the atmosphere has endless combinations that in are high flux all the time, and it is going to split out big/record wx events at times w/ their frequencies waxing and waning over various time cycles naturally.

[vortex95]

On 7/29/2026 at 2:52 PM, weatherwiz said:

McDonalds overall is awful now...not that it was ever particularly great but its extremely overpriced and significantly worse quality. Can let to to like Applebees or Chilis and get a better burger dinner for only a few extra bucks. The McDonalds across from BDL isn't bad though. Had a double quarter pounder from there not long back and it was great.  

I used to go McDonalds.  But I can not go there out of good conscience b/c of the ridiculous prices.  Funny, Taco Bell and Little Caesars, there prices have not gone up much at all over the last 5 years.  So I do not want to hear inflation or min wage mandates excuses.

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

This.is true.. when I saw the springfield tornado I could of got closer.. my heart was like do it.. but my brain was saying your close enough and try to live another day to see another one 

@ineedsnow wants this!

 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, BrianW said:

More rain coming in for BDR. Hopefully they will pull of the wettest July on record.

Fell just short. 12.33"  Unless they happen to get TRW+ today.