Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

HRRR did a very good job in this area, pretty much went exactly as I expected . 

[Chrisrotary12]

39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sam areas all summer.

 

On 7/21/2026 at 9:18 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

After all that bitching you got over 2”? LOL 

Congrats on 2-3”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

Congrats on 2-3”

Hard sell here. HRRR crushes the areas raining now and everyone else gets half inch 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hard sell here. HRRR crushes the areas raining now and everyone else gets half inch 

Still drunk?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hard sell here. HRRR crushes the areas raining now and everyone else gets half inch 

Have you met any possible new wives there yet?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man why is BOX running so much “hotter” than OKX or any other radar.

They’ve been like that for years

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Will it rain on the chickens?!?

0.06”

Getting the big L so far

[w1pf]

NWS dialed the Holyoke PnC back to 1-2" from 2-3" 

Yesterday overperformed, got 1.4" not "a tenth to a quarter"

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still drunk?

What’s your call for SE Mass

[SJonesWX]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

15% chance of an area within 25 miles seeing rainfall that exceeds flash flood guidance. Kind of similar to SPC outlooks of having a certain percentage chance of seeing severe within 50mi or whatever it is. Flash flood guidance varies depending on recent rainfall (among other things, probably). 
 

Caveat is moderate risk on rainfall is not the same as a mod risk for severe. When I see a mod rain risk it’s noteworthy but not uncommon. A high risk is serious though—they almost always precede catastrophic flooding somewhere within the zone. 

I get it, and mostly understand it. my point is this: we are all weenies, hobbyists, and meteorologists here, so I'd say that this forum gets it. But what does the general public think that map means? i am sure more than one twitterologist has posted that map with no context.

[dendrite]

6z HRRR is like 0.25” here. Euro isn’t much better. Holy hell.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

0.06”

Getting the big L so far

You have more than me lol

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You have more than me lol

5.46” vs 0.95” MTD

[dendrite]

Glue factory

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

5.46” vs 0.95” MTD

And you had 9” in June 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’ve been like that for years

I know, but today it looks exceptionally bad.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And you had 9” in June 

5.61”

I also had 10” in 2009. Point?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast mass are up next for some good heavy downpours

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast mass are up next for some good heavy downpours

Keep it south don't need it here.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

5.61”

I also had 10” in 2009. Point?

That you’re ok 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know, but today it looks exceptionally bad.

My only guess is the relatively recent change of the 0.3° beam angle. With a cool season like storm and “flatter” beam they’re returning a lot of area in the mixed-phase layer. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That you’re ok 

You’ve been complaining about Stein for months and you’ve had a May-Jun-Jul of 13” and counting so you can just

[powderfreak]

ALB with 4.95” so far.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

ALB with 4.95” so far.

[CoastalWx]

That area east of Albany is getting annihilated 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’ve been complaining about Stein for months and you’ve had a May-Jun-Jul of 13” and counting so you can just

 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

I’m not down with other people’s precip

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m not down with other people’s precip

 

Ya down with David Epstein.. 

“ Yeah , we know Stein”

[WxWatcher007]

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m going to take the Kev & TBlizz approach. WXW1 doesn’t get more than .50” total. 

 

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Storm total of 0.09” at WXW1 

Storm total of 0.53” at WXW2

I mean what can you say 

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Glue factory

• Delete

 

Yeah... the synoptic forcing is weak. Hence the mere 1001 mb low.  But when that's the case ( for the general readers...) that means there is less unity of physical forces occurring above and below the threshold of model grid ...  the model processing only partially handles ... we end up with a dart board

Subtle example of relativity ... even though the forcing/mechanics are petty, since there is nothing else to offset them, the actual rain production and impact ends up being rather high - or higher than it should be for 1001er.   It also (obviously) doesn't hurt the scenario that there's a heavy PWAT in this mess.   The former and this latter facets on top of each other ... viola!  It was/is both difficult to pin point where, but somewhere is likely to get zonkered because the whole of it doesn't require much triggering