Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[ineedsnow]

12z NAM is wild for some 

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mins on this day in 2001. Yes that’s a 45° at BED.

Someone get grandpa off the internet.

Frost at HIE - cool.  We had 40/39 on 27-28 that year.  Farther back/north, we lost half our pumpkins on July 31, 1978 in Fort Kent, and the next door neighbor's beans were torched - their garden was 2-3 feet lower than ours, probably had 31 while we only got down to 32.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mins on this day in 2001. Yes that’s a 45° at BED.

Someone get grandpa off the internet.

Looks like the ASOS crapped the bed in the late afternoon and they just placed a bunch of M’s for “missing” to finish that month before it was fixed.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Frost at HIE - cool.  We had 40/39 on 27-28 that year.  Farther back/north, we lost half our pumpkins on July 31, 1978 in Fort Kent, and the next door neighbor's beans were torched - their garden was 2-3 feet lower than ours, probably had 31 while we only got down to 32.

Yup…even pulled a 31° there on the 28th.

BED probably would’ve been around 46° that morning, but we’ll probably get another “coldest 7/28 of our lives” tomorrow.

[weatherwiz]

ehhh this isn't looking that impressive for widespread significant rainfall totals. Greatest concern for several inches of rain is going to be the Hudson Valley into NJ tomorrow into the overnight but as the system continues sliding east its going to begin occluding. Also seems like there are two warm fronts with this...we get a diffuse warm front maybe into southern CT and dynamics are solid...so we're going to see rain but it should generally be light-to-moderate and a bit more on the spotty side with heavier rain tied into convection. The true warm front seems to get pinched off well south. 

There will be some wild gradients with totals...some spots will probably see 2-3-4" of rain (but really spread out over multiple days) and some spots may struggle to even get an inch. All in all, a nice good soaking rain for some, perfect because the ground can easily absorb it and limit any major concerns for flooding. Could be big flooding through Hudson Valley into NJ 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh this isn't looking that impressive for widespread significant rainfall totals. Greatest concern for several inches of rain is going to be the Hudson Valley into NJ tomorrow into the overnight but as the system continues sliding east its going to begin occluding. Also seems like there are two warm fronts with this...we get a diffuse warm front maybe into southern CT and dynamics are solid...so we're going to see rain but it should generally be light-to-moderate and a bit more on the spotty side with heavier rain tied into convection. The true warm front seems to get pinched off well south. 

There will be some wild gradients with totals...some spots will probably see 2-3-4" of rain (but really spread out over multiple days) and some spots may struggle to even get an inch. All in all, a nice good soaking rain for some, perfect because the ground can easily absorb it and limit any major concerns for flooding. Could be big flooding through Hudson Valley into NJ 

NAM floods you down the CT river

[ineedsnow]

congrats @weatherwiz

 

[dendrite]

12k nam…what could go wrong?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

congrats @weatherwiz

 

That's cute 

Love how the bullseye is right over me. That's how you know it isn't happening

But looks like the NAM wants to pump the fire hose Wednesday night. Still seems a quite a bit overdone 

[Torch Tiger]

wrong but we hope it's so right....give 'em 6-12" and call it a day

[CT Rain]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's cute 

Love how the bullseye is right over me. That's how you know it isn't happening

But looks like the NAM wants to pump the fire hose Wednesday night. Still seems a quite a bit overdone 

Strong dynamics for late July.

Seems like someone will get crushed to me. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Strong dynamics for late July.

Seems like someone will get crushed to me. 

Someone for sure, but how widespread of an area? That's what I'm a bit iffy on. Could be the Berks that get smoked in this. 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh this isn't looking that impressive for widespread significant rainfall totals. Greatest concern for several inches of rain is going to be the Hudson Valley into NJ tomorrow into the overnight but as the system continues sliding east its going to begin occluding. Also seems like there are two warm fronts with this...we get a diffuse warm front maybe into southern CT and dynamics are solid...so we're going to see rain but it should generally be light-to-moderate and a bit more on the spotty side with heavier rain tied into convection. The true warm front seems to get pinched off well south. 

There will be some wild gradients with totals...some spots will probably see 2-3-4" of rain (but really spread out over multiple days) and some spots may struggle to even get an inch. All in all, a nice good soaking rain for some, perfect because the ground can easily absorb it and limit any major concerns for flooding. Could be big flooding through Hudson Valley into NJ 

3k nam shows what you're saying

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

3k nam shows what you're saying

ahh yeah I didn't check the 3km yet. Something like that is exactly what I am trying to envision happening. You can see too how that really hammers the lower Hudson down to around Newark...could be some serious flooding down that way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

3k nam shows what you're saying

No wonder I'm in a severe drought...this spot is always a regional min.

[Damage In Tolland]

3k is the much more likely scenario.  Most towns get .50.-2” and a few get a bit more . And it’s got the jack where you’d think it would be to the NW. Also notice it lost that ridiculous Noreaster it had. So many wild tweets and posts about a July Noreaster lol. It’s a closed ULL over NY state. As boring as it gets unless someone sees a spinner or something 

[Ginx snewx]

COC city 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No wonder I'm in a severe drought...this spot is always a regional min.

Congrats on Jack !

[CoastalWx]

Some good analysis in this thread.  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some good analysis in this thread.  

How many deep are you?still on board for a wild storm ?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Some good analysis in this thread.  

Noah comes 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How many deep are you?still on board for a wild storm ?

90% of the posts have been based off emotions and wishcasting. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

90% of the posts have been based off emotions and wishcasting. 

Guys talking about arcs and 1/100 year flooding yeah 

[Damage In Tolland]

Feels nice to get these high dews back today