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Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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powderfreak
powderfreak

Made it to my grandparents’ homeland… Norwegian family here.  Second time over in Norway, but man, this place is absolute sensory overload. Fun watching the Red Sox win 14 from various airports t

HIPPYVALLEY
HIPPYVALLEY
CT Rain
CT Rain

This is a big/strong signal for big rains.   

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, dendrite said:

Coldest of our lifetime according to some

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!"  The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field.  Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal!  Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!"

And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative?  So how does one resolve atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season?  Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is?  Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!"  The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field.  Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal!  Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!"

And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative?  So how does one resolve atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season?  Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is?  Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

There’s posters here ( ACATT) as an example .. that think this is chilly and below normal and that the month of July is and will finish BN. It’s hard to understand or fathom , but just look at their posts 

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The point was. He posts every tweet from them about cold and below normal and leaves out anything related to heat, AN. It’s part of his agenda 

The door swings both ways, and neither far end is good!  If one is going to cover wx for a big audience, state things objectively and try not to let personal bias sway you.  Sadly, this position is harder and harder to find these days.  And the most devious things about it is that some know better, are on the level, yet are well-aware that instigating conflict and divide w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging is an easy way to get attention and monetize, so they disingenuously take this route.  Some are more subtle than others.  Look at the rhetoric and most importantly, how things are over time.

 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!"  The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field.  Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal!  Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!"

And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative?  So how does one resolved atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season?  Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is?  Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

Ive never been a fan of using 30 years "blocks" for determining " normal". I'd much prefer the entire dataset for a site be used.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, dendrite said:

The leaves are getting that leathery look

Odd statements like this that you would say, "no one ever says that!" or "says it that way!" are a red flag for AI-generated content.  I've seen it many times in wx posts already on various social media platforms.  One was talking about tornadoes and it said, "F5-class."  First, not using the EF-scale is a red flag, and second, no one ever says "F5-class" for a pre-2007 tornado rating.  We say, "F5-rated" or "rated F5"!

In narration, it can sound great and getting all its facts correct, but you get thrown off whenever you hear a mispronounced word from AI not knowing usage context.  Like "lead" or "wound."  It stands out so much and it takes you out of the listening/learning part, and you immediately go, "AI SLOP!"
 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Odd statements like this that you would say, "no one ever says that!" or "says it that way!" are a red flag for AI-generated content.  I've seen it many times in wx posts already on various social media platforms.  One was talking about tornadoes and it said, "F5-class."  First, not using the EF-scale is a red flag, and second, no one ever says "F5-class" for a pre-2007 tornado rating.  We say, "F5-rated" or "rated F5"!

In narration, it can sound great and getting all its facts correct, but you get thrown off whenever you hear a mispronounced word from AI not knowing usage context.  Like "lead" or "wound."  It stands out so much and it takes you out of the listening/learning part, and you immediately go, "AI SLOP!"
 

Longtime inside joke here :lol:

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

As if what happened last August has *any* relevance or influence on what this August will be like?  Useless filler statement in the context of forecasting.

This would be like saying, "recall last winter CoastalWx has two 20"+ snowstorms in Weymouth..." for this upcoming winter fcst.  And not to leave out Wxwiz, for July 10 any year that has a tor risk on this day, "recall on July 10, 1989 we had 17 tors in the NEUS for its biggest outbreak on record!" :weenie: 
 

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stupid

And leave out conditions have improved in the last week in SNE.  And in the large pix, I find it hard to believe that srn RI and SE MA are still svr drought conditions given the 8-11" of rain in the past 3 weeks (the way the drought conditions are calculated I have long have issues w/ despite how it isn't just about rainfall). 

Although the cut off day of 7/21 at 8am missed the big rains the following 24 hr, the post could have said how it has improved just in the last 48 hr which the map did not account for.  Omission of facts to promote a particular narrative or prevent deflating hype!

And really, how much of daily routine life has been impacted for the general public b/c we have had drought conditions for awhile?  Yes, there are some impacts but nothing that we can't handle/absorb and have done so for a very long time.  The way the MSM pushes drought often you'd think it is debilitating issue and our water supply is running out!

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Ive never been a fan of using 30 years "blocks" for determining " normal". I'd much prefer the entire dataset for a site be used.

Yes, I agree.  30-yr does have practical uses, but for long-term climate, and I am  talking on geological scales, it is useless.  Things exist in a rather large range from a local to global scale when you consider how long the Earth has been around, and that's ok.  Geez, the range of things from a climatic POV over millions of years? 

Also, I have seen things done w/ 30-year normals, both on a deliberate and accidental level.  Using some random 30-year period to scale wx and records in the present. Which 30-year normal baseline is best to quantify changes or trends to the present?  You see one can pick and chose to get desired results here either way.

And why 30 years?  Is this something significant climate-wise about 30 years?  Given that is a tiny speck geologically, I would say not.  It sounds more like a human convenient period (generational?) than anything else!  We have a tendency to scale and build things around what humans consider a "long-time," but that does not work on geological scales.

And then you run into period of record varying greatly for many locations across the globe, so there is big challenge here.  We have to have something for a baseline, but having something does not mean it works well for all things.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
On 7/20/2026 at 7:10 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot. 

 

On 7/20/2026 at 7:27 AM, moneypitmike said:

The season is not record hot/cold until it's over.  Let's' see how the remainder plays out.

Bump.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Atleast if its hot in August the sun is starting to lower so it doesnt feel as bad.. Just like when its 20 in mid February but your car can still be warm when you get in it during the day. 

Yeah but you don't deserve it 'cuz you've been chiding and debasing warmth all along  haha

'Sides, solar max doesn't exit until ~ the 9th of August

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Definitely running warm again. Looks like maybe a step change last fall, but it’s a lot more noticeable this summer.

image.png

how and perhaps what on Earth are you seeing here that looks like anything  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No apparently summer is basically over just like how some said cool weather was here to stay in mid June. 

Ensembles clearly show more hot weather as August arrives and I wouldn't rule out more 100+ readings 

Augdewst looks hotter and hotter each successive ensemble run. Super Ninos love end humid hot summers well into fall

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