Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Psychguy said:

That looks a little toasty…

It’s coming 

[Baroclinic Zone]

What a day!

Got about 1” in last nights rains, couple that with the day before’s 1.5”. Probably won’t do much for drought as it came too fast to soak in and most ended up in storm drains.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

00z MAV for tomorrow morn

40 at HIE on the latest GFS MOS.  *Almost* a touch of frost!

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, dendrite said:

Coldest of our lifetime according to some

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!"  The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field.  Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal!  Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!"

And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative?  So how does one resolve atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season?  Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is?  Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

[kdxken]

Stupid

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!"  The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field.  Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal!  Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!"

And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative?  So how does one resolve atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season?  Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is?  Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

There’s posters here ( ACATT) as an example .. that think this is chilly and below normal and that the month of July is and will finish BN. It’s hard to understand or fathom , but just look at their posts 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The point was. He posts every tweet from them about cold and below normal and leaves out anything related to heat, AN. It’s part of his agenda 

The door swings both ways, and neither far end is good!  If one is going to cover wx for a big audience, state things objectively and try not to let personal bias sway you.  Sadly, this position is harder and harder to find these days.  And the most devious things about it is that some know better, are on the level, yet are well-aware that instigating conflict and divide w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging is an easy way to get attention and monetize, so they disingenuously take this route.  Some are more subtle than others.  Look at the rhetoric and most importantly, how things are over time.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!"  The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field.  Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal!  Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!"

And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative?  So how does one resolved atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season?  Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is?  Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

Ive never been a fan of using 30 years "blocks" for determining " normal". I'd much prefer the entire dataset for a site be used.

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

The leaves are getting that leathery look

Odd statements like this that you would say, "no one ever says that!" or "says it that way!" are a red flag for AI-generated content.  I've seen it many times in wx posts already on various social media platforms.  One was talking about tornadoes and it said, "F5-class."  First, not using the EF-scale is a red flag, and second, no one ever says "F5-class" for a pre-2007 tornado rating.  We say, "F5-rated" or "rated F5"!

In narration, it can sound great and getting all its facts correct, but you get thrown off whenever you hear a mispronounced word from AI not knowing usage context.  Like "lead" or "wound."  It stands out so much and it takes you out of the listening/learning part, and you immediately go, "AI SLOP!"
 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

It can easily get over 100° in August I'm not sure what folks are talking about. 

Enter August 2, 1975!

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Odd statements like this that you would say, "no one ever says that!" or "says it that way!" are a red flag for AI-generated content.  I've seen it many times in wx posts already on various social media platforms.  One was talking about tornadoes and it said, "F5-class."  First, not using the EF-scale is a red flag, and second, no one ever says "F5-class" for a pre-2007 tornado rating.  We say, "F5-rated" or "rated F5"!

In narration, it can sound great and getting all its facts correct, but you get thrown off whenever you hear a mispronounced word from AI not knowing usage context.  Like "lead" or "wound."  It stands out so much and it takes you out of the listening/learning part, and you immediately go, "AI SLOP!"
 

Longtime inside joke here 

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT will stop at nothing to prove their agendas . And I’m as far right as it gets 

How much did it set you back to fill up your truck with freedom fuel today?

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

As if what happened last August has *any* relevance or influence on what this August will be like?  Useless filler statement in the context of forecasting.

This would be like saying, "recall last winter CoastalWx has two 20"+ snowstorms in Weymouth..." for this upcoming winter fcst.  And not to leave out Wxwiz, for July 10 any year that has a tor risk on this day, "recall on July 10, 1989 we had 17 tors in the NEUS for its biggest outbreak on record!"  
 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Enter August 2, 1975!

I believe that was Billy Martin's 1st day as manager of the Yankees.

[vortex95]

30 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stupid

And leave out conditions have improved in the last week in SNE.  And in the large pix, I find it hard to believe that srn RI and SE MA are still svr drought conditions given the 8-11" of rain in the past 3 weeks (the way the drought conditions are calculated I have long have issues w/ despite how it isn't just about rainfall). 

Although the cut off day of 7/21 at 8am missed the big rains the following 24 hr, the post could have said how it has improved just in the last 48 hr which the map did not account for.  Omission of facts to promote a particular narrative or prevent deflating hype!

And really, how much of daily routine life has been impacted for the general public b/c we have had drought conditions for awhile?  Yes, there are some impacts but nothing that we can't handle/absorb and have done so for a very long time.  The way the MSM pushes drought often you'd think it is debilitating issue and our water supply is running out!

[Torch Tiger]

OT but heard this on AM radio today. banger with the sax.  minor hit

 

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Ive never been a fan of using 30 years "blocks" for determining " normal". I'd much prefer the entire dataset for a site be used.

Yes, I agree.  30-yr does have practical uses, but for long-term climate, and I am  talking on geological scales, it is useless.  Things exist in a rather large range from a local to global scale when you consider how long the Earth has been around, and that's ok.  Geez, the range of things from a climatic POV over millions of years? 

Also, I have seen things done w/ 30-year normals, both on a deliberate and accidental level.  Using some random 30-year period to scale wx and records in the present. Which 30-year normal baseline is best to quantify changes or trends to the present?  You see one can pick and chose to get desired results here either way.

And why 30 years?  Is this something significant climate-wise about 30 years?  Given that is a tiny speck geologically, I would say not.  It sounds more like a human convenient period (generational?) than anything else!  We have a tendency to scale and build things around what humans consider a "long-time," but that does not work on geological scales.

And then you run into period of record varying greatly for many locations across the globe, so there is big challenge here.  We have to have something for a baseline, but having something does not mean it works well for all things.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Today should be the 8th day in a row of BN temps for ORH. 
Strong start out of the gates for the month, but fading down the back stretch

+1.5F MTD

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

OT but heard this on AM radio today. banger with the sax.  minor hit

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOS is +3.1F.  Which is impressive 

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOS is +3.1F.  Which is impressive 

*

[moneypitmike]

On 7/20/2026 at 7:10 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot. 

 

On 7/20/2026 at 7:27 AM, moneypitmike said:

The season is not record hot/cold until it's over.  Let's' see how the remainder plays out.

Bump.

[dendrite]

6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

*

Definitely running warm again. Looks like maybe a step change last fall, but it’s a lot more noticeable this summer.

[kdxken]

8 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Today should be the 8th day in a row of BN temps for ORH. 
Strong start out of the gates for the month, but fading down the back stretch

+1.5F MTD

Hartford + 0.8

[Damage In Tolland]

Odd someone living in BOS is daily tracking where HFD temps are MTD and posting 

[ineedsnow]

Atleast if its hot in August the sun is starting to lower so it doesnt feel as bad.. Just like when its 20 in mid February but your car can still be warm when you get in it during the day. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Atleast if its hot in August the sun is starting to lower so it doesnt feel as bad.. Just like when its 20 in mid February but your car can still be warm when you get in it during the day. 

Yeah but you don't deserve it 'cuz you've been chiding and debasing warmth all along  haha

'Sides, solar max doesn't exit until ~ the 9th of August

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Definitely running warm again. Looks like maybe a step change last fall, but it’s a lot more noticeable this summer.

how and perhaps what on Earth are you seeing here that looks like anything