Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, you’d think if the state’s HI record was 115F, the post would want to focus on all the sites above that level in this image… not the one showing an erroneous 133F.  Numerous sites above that 115F level but they lose the viewer by elevating the highest outlier.

Not questioning it is nasty for heat index, just let's not get carried away.  When big wx is going on, all too often some just deliberately "pile on" the negative b/c they know many are already in a vulnerable state of alert, fear, or anxious.  

Actually, these days it does not even had to be "big wx" going for this nonsense.  "Run-of-the mill wx" does just "fine." 

[bristolri_wx]

Taking the opportunity to take advantage of these “cool” low 80’s temps to get the backyard ready for the 3rd/4th. Can’t believe it’s 81 at 10:45 at night. 

[JJBASHB]

I actually see it as purposefully using bad data, not to support climate change, but to discredit it.  The point isn’t to cause fear or anxiety, the point is to cause skepticism through intentionally flawed/exaggerated statements.  It takes the narrative away from the event, makes it seem like it’s agenda/hype driven, and takes away from legitimate discussion.  The dupe isn’t getting you to think everything extreme, the dupe is making everyone overly skeptical so it’s okay to buy into whatever you choose to believe regardless of fact.  
 

It’s like dressing up like a clown before having a serious discussion.  You aren’t trying to be taken seriously, you’re trying to get people to think that those who hold the position are clowns.  

[Torch Tiger]

those NNE storms sent out a distinct outflow boundary visible on radar- through here to nearing pike -  seems to be interacting with W MA storm(s) now. 

[Torch Tiger]

pop-up south shore zygote, too

[NoCORH4L]

This is 100% what summer is all about.  Just like summers of yore 250 years ago. Bonnets and breeches all over the beach at Walden Pond. 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Not here but I think we're going to hear alot about this Typhoon in the coming days

NW Pac is typically very active in strong El Nino years, and so far that is the case.  Most standard parameters (NS, NSD, ACE, etc.) are running about 200% of avg season-to-date, and TY Bavi will add to ACE big time in the next week.

 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

The all time record high min for PVD is 80F from 6/6/1925. I've always questioned that particular record. It was only early June there's no way that it's accurate. The second highest on record is 78F and that was set multiple times but in the middle of summer, not the first week of June.

[TheClimateChanger]

Damn, looks like Canada forgot to rake their forests again!

 

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, tamarack said:

No surprise at EWR, while Central Park gets surrounded by ever taler trees.  From 2000 on, NYC has reached 100 six times, the most recent in July of 2012.  EWR has notched 40 triples during the same 26 years (don't have June numbers yet) and 17 of those have occurred in the 2020s.

KNYC 100°

And 15 minutes later my data becomes outdated.  

Earlier this decade for a significant period, EWR was clearly 2 F too warm.  Every month, it would be +2 higher than all the other CLI sties in the OKX CWA.  The issue go beyond just UHI and asphalt runways nearby.  New constriction causes artificial heat issues as well.  BWI has this issue, but only when the wind blows a certain direction.  This is why one can't smooth out or "THREADEX"  warm biases over time b/c each CLI location has different issues over time.

Probably the worst sited CLI site, at least at an airport, is PHX.  Right downtown and given the massive growth of the city in the last 70 years alone?

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

The media nowadays likes to hype every weather event to the max. Every heat wave is "extreme". This event isn't anything crazy. Although I doubt that many people would notice a big difference between 100F and 105F anyways.

And the media mode skews perception big time.  It makes things appear a lot worse than they actually are.  The relentless nature of it wears on ppl psychologically, to the point pp start believing it merely b/c it is repeated so many times.  That's more in line of propaganda, rather that proof/fact.

The most overused wx buzz word or phrase these days is "we're tracking!"  Why wouldn't they be tracking?  That's would be like saying, "we're forecasting!  Superfluous and fluff language to make things sound more important than they actually are.

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

für Vortex 

 

Classic vague tease.  "Get ready"  For what?  Makes one click!  And the arrow points to northern Mexico?  And it is totally unclear what the color shading is depicting, but as long as it is bright and flashy, who cares! 

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

Classic vague tease.  "Get ready"  For what?  Makes one click!  And the arrow points to northern Mexico?  And it is totally unclear what the color shading is depicting, but as long as it is bright and flashy, who cares! 

I was about to give you a hard time for being so triggered over these clowns, but then here I am ready to Will Smith the next person I hear say "heat lightning". 

[OrangeCTWX]

80F at midnight. Brutal. Meanwhile it’s possible on Tuesday some places don’t get out of the 50s for a high.  Doubt this happens, but what a swing if it did. 

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

I live 11 miles sw of Boston and the high for these 2 days has been 97.  Comparing Boston temperatures to the 40's ignores the massive heat island effect of all those skyscrapers built since then.

How about this?  The temp sensor at Logan in the late 1970s was moved from near the NWS building area to the center of the runways.  This is why you see many 100 F+ readings up to July 21, 1977 and then not another 100 F reading until July 14, 1995.  The UHI increase took 18 years to build enough to push temps to 100 again in the runway area that is surrounded by water on 3 sides.

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Cookin’

The running joke back in the day was if you want hot, look at the bank thermometer!  Pre-Internet all you had was the wx radio and the local news, so *any* other thing you could find that gave you wx was big!

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

How do scientists explicitly account for urban heat when measuring Earth's global temperature to ensure that local heat islands do not skew data on global climate trends?

They largely do not/can not or ignore it.  Why let something like that interfere w/ a particular narrative or ideology?  And actually accounting for it is practically impossible.  Sites move, land and water areas near and around sites change, and so does equipment type, and every location has its own unique changes over time.

Given only about 2% of globally land is urbanized, and there is a distinct bias having GHCN stations near or in urban areas, well, it's not rocket science to see the problem here.

Here's another thing that is not generally known or mentioned.  Digital thermometers run warm.  This is b/c they can record instantaneous temps well, unlike analog/glass thermometers of the past.  Yes, ASOS is designed to take an avg of the temp for the last 5 min, but this is not standardized w/ all sensors/sites globally.  And some agencies will take instantaneous temp spikes from artificial heat sources, and call that a max temp for a day or a record if applicable, even when it is obvious something is off.  Or just use a site's 1-min temp data in calculations for mean temps.  This falls along the lines of "how to lie w/ statistics."  There are many, many way to crunch and manipulate data, let alone pick and chose data sources, that validate this statement.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Anvil is collapsing a bit

Fuzzy anvils = bad sign for storm!

[Torch Tiger]

52 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Classic vague tease.  "Get ready"  For what?  Makes one click!  And the arrow points to northern Mexico?  And it is totally unclear what the color shading is depicting, but as long as it is bright and flashy, who cares! 

It's histrionic clickbait, agree 100%. 

I just liked the "tHiS sToRm is going to EXPLODE" headline and the heat dome thing 

that is what makes money.  we adapt

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, JJBASHB said:

I actually see it as purposefully using bad data, not to support climate change, but to discredit it.  The point isn’t to cause fear or anxiety, the point is to cause skepticism through intentionally flawed/exaggerated statements.  It takes the narrative away from the event, makes it seem like it’s agenda/hype driven, and takes away from legitimate discussion.  The dupe isn’t getting you to think everything extreme, the dupe is making everyone overly skeptical so it’s okay to buy into whatever you choose to believe regardless of fact.  
 

It’s like dressing up like a clown before having a serious discussion.  You aren’t trying to be taken seriously, you’re trying to get people to think that those who hold the position are clowns.  

That's a good point, but the door swings both ways here.  Repeating lies or gross exaggerations enough, people will start believing it.  This results in the bandwagon fallacy (everyone is saying it, so it *must* be true!).

Being skeptical is an invaluable tool.  Not enough ppl IMHO use it, or more specifically, apply/handle it in the best (most balanced) way.  So we often end up w/ the false dichotomy logical fallacy, believe everything or don't believe anything.  Neither is good.

How one presents data is paramount.  Just posting random tidbits lacking detail or sources that more and more have AI-generated slop are rife these days and deserve to be called out.  If one can recognize crap/nonsense/slop better, one will make better decisions and avoid being duped/scammed/brainwashed.

There is one constant and fundamental issue that that makes the warming issue very enticing politically, socially, and economically.  Touting the end of the world or civilization as we know it -- can you think of anything else more urgent and absolute than that to society?  So riding that narrative sells easily and instills deep psychological fear in the population.  In such a state, they can be molded/manipulated better.  Claims the world is going to end due to AGW fits this category, and is why high skepticism and push back exists, b/c it is not so much about the science anymore, it is more about ideology/agenda/control.

Having problems in general sense, real or imagined, unfortunately has been realized and abused in recent decades that there is enormous power and profit having such.  Hence, where we are today.  Nothing is scaled or put into proper context/perspective anymore.  It's always "the worst ever" or "it was never like this before" or some variant.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

pop-up south shore zygote, too

"Zygote?"  LOL.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

That's a good point, but the door swings both ways here.  Repeating lies or gross exaggerations enough, people will start believing it.  This results in the bandwagon fallacy (everyone is saying it, so it *must* be true!).

Being skeptical is an invaluable tool.  Not enough ppl IMHO use it, or more specifically, apply/handle it in the best (most balanced) way.  So we often end up w/ the false dichotomy logical fallacy, believe everything or don't believe anything.  Neither is good.

How one presents data is paramount.  Just posting random tidbits lacking detail or sources that more and more have AI-generated slop are rife these days and deserve to be called out.  If one can recognize crap/nonsense/slop better, one will make better decisions and avoid being duped/scammed/brainwashed.

There is one constant and fundamental issue that that makes the warming issue very enticing politically, socially, and economically.  Touting the end of the world or civilization as we know it -- can you think of anything else more urgent and absolute than that to society?  So riding that narrative sells easily and instills deep psychological fear in the population.  In such a state, they can be molded/manipulated better.  Claims the world is going to end due to AGW fits this category, and is why high skepticism and push back exists, b/c it is not so much about the science anymore, it is more about ideology/agenda/control.

Having problems in general sense, real or imagined, unfortunately has been realized and abused in recent decades that there is enormous power and profit having such.  Hence, where we are today.  Nothing is scaled or put into proper context/perspective anymore.  It's always "the worst ever" or "it was never like this before" or some variant.

Being overly skeptical also makes people seem like crack pot conspiracy theorists. It’s necessary to think. But when all people do is whine and complain about the media, etc, eventually they come across as nuts. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Damn, looks like Canada forgot to rake their forests again!

 

Blame the wildfire smoke as to why BDL did not hit 103! 

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Being overly skeptical also makes people seem like crack pot conspiracy theorists. It’s necessary to think. But when all people do is whine and complain about the media, etc, eventually they come across as nuts. 

Again, it is about balance and handling skepticism in the proper way.  It can get out of control very quickly, as you noted mentioning conspiracies.

As for the media, scaring ppl into watching I find unethical and counterproductive in the end.  That's what it is -- all about for profit.  It wasn't always this way.

And just b/c "that's the way it is" does not mean you just accept it and act like everything is ok and will be fine.  So many being put into a semi-permanent state of fear or "flight or flee" mode is not healthy.  I purposely over time has cut back (de-expose) myself to the MSM, b/c even if you are resilient, confident, and understand why things the way they are, the relentless negativity and hype is distracting and will test those even those w/ the strongest mettle.  Being reminded constantly of all the problems/issues in the world, how is that good?  And communicating this to others who may have trouble handling it all, that is a good thing b/c understanding it at least will help to assuage stress/anxiety.

[Torch Tiger]

he here

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, tunafish said:

I was about to give you a hard time for being so triggered over these clowns, but then here I am ready to Will Smith the next person I hear say "heat lightning". 

Oh, I am not triggered at all.  I know the main clowns on YouTube and other social media.  Still, practice in calling them out w/ their methods can be a entertaining at times.  Also, just sharing some critical thinking skills on "how to spot pseudoscience" and the like has value for ppl on the forum,

[codfishsnowman]

6 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

EWR 96 at the 10 PM ob, lol.  

Ewr obs yesterday are just sick 

Peak at 105 and bottom out at 84

89 at 4 am like Arizona but with dews

[Damage In Tolland]

Logan is 83 for the low. Wow

[dendrite]

69.4°

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Logan is 83 for the low. Wow

EWR 88