6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[A-L-E-K]

 

[cyclone77]

Main action likely to miss east and especially south of here.  Should get a nice non severe MCS in the morning though.

[Torchageddon]

42 minutes ago, mjwise said:

According to this database (still seemingly updated), it would be record-breaking or nearly so for June once it gets into the lower GL region. Per the map below, record low pressure in June from Chicagoland into the central portion of the lower peninsula of michigan is ~992-993mb

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

I love those maps, its been a while. I'm surprised in OH valley the rec low slps are that high, and the gradient between central ON and central MI.

[pen_artist]

12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

I want to believee

[cyclone77]

Kind of wondering if this setup is going to over-convect.  Several models are showing a line of supercells.  May be too much storm competition for a widespread tornado setup.  Gonna be interesting to see how this plays out.

[A-L-E-K]

should see initiation right overhead tomorrow afternoon

[metallica470]

StormNet went wagons south again:

[A-L-E-K]

rip champaign

[nvck]

Record low slp

[metallica470]

SPC expanded the enhanced north and east:

[sbnwx85]

Zoomed in view 

 

[sbnwx85]

Also a large 45%

[andyhb]

42 minutes ago, nvck said:

Record low slp

Generally when you blend a record strength 500 mb shortwave with a record strength surface low, you're going to expect some pretty anomalous outcomes assuming moisture is available, which it looks to be.

[MidwestChaser]

New NAM brings the action up to the 88. area.

[Jackstraw]

Mid 980's is getting into Cat 2 Hurricane territory lol. This seems to be a classic Great Lakes/Ohio Valley kinematic setup that we would normally see in some of the Feb/early March or Nov. outbreaks we've had in the past as currently modeled. See how the models respond tomorrow before I get too excited. That upper level jet timing and strength as modeled right now certainly has me intrigued anyway.

[CheeselandSkies]

21Z RAP box soundings are nuts. 730 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH.

 

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

 

 

 

[MidwestChaser]

[Jackstraw]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

21Z RAP box soundings are nuts. 730 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH.

 

There's shotgun soundings everywhere in IL/IN between I70 and I80 on some of the CAM's. Might be too good lol

[andyhb]

Have to imagine a D2 MDT is coming given the magnitude of the setup being shown by the 00z guidance thus far, with some supercells on the CAMs interacting with it. Just incredible wind fields.

[pen_artist]

Little under 48 hours out looks like a thread the needle event for areas of DuPage and Cook near the city. Will be incredibly fast storm motion

[KeenerWx]

Nice. D2 Moderate. 

[andyhb]

Quote

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of
damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.

Main uncertainty being the placement of the warm front and antecedent convection.