6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[nvck]

Looking like another impactful stretch of weather coming up, with Wednesday, as of now, having the highest ceiling. StormNet, CSU-MLP, and other ML products have all had very "hot" runs lately, pretty eyecatching stuff, especially as the northern bound of the highest prob area is over the same area that saw several tornadoes on Thursday. The GEFS has been consistent in showing an area of high P[SCP>1] over portions of Missouri and Illinois, even back into Kansas, for multiple runs now, while other models expand the risk further east towards Ohio. Regardless, very strong flow for this time of the year will overlap an area of ample moisture. Should be an interesting couple days.

[andyhb]

As of right now, this looks like an outbreak over potentially a large expanse of real estate, with both strong tornadoes and a derecho possible. I’m amazed at how strong the LLJ is across many models right now.

[A-L-E-K]

Miss south for mby, glad to see IL staying hot tho

[nvck]

hoping we get some more of an east trend, am pretty tired of getting 2am weakening MCSs, would at least like to see some lightning in the daytime

[nvck]

More of a march/april look here than anything else, but loving the shear profile

[mjwise]

Nice baroclinic support so far into June with the GEFS, EPS, and AIFS ensemble means all showing a 992-995mb low traversing southern Lake Michigan late Wednesday.  Looks like most likely a cool rain for MBY. 

[CheeselandSkies]

I couldn't chase last Thursday due to being in Cleveland on a family trip (probably would have ended up on the still-tornadic relative junk in western IL anyway), but it'd be nice to have the target not be south of I-80 for once since I rarely can take PTO on short notice from my job.

[cyclone77]

Multiple models are showing a large MCS traversing Iowa again the morning of the event.  Will be interesting to see how the evolution of that affects the development later in the day.  

Very impressed by the synoptics of this.  Powerful upper jet knifing in with very impressive shear profiles over a wide area on the nose of that.

[andyhb]

The 12z Euro… holy moly.