Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[WxWatcher007]

On 10/21/2026 at 8:21 AM, Terpeast said:

That's the best case scenario. The worst case? well... 

I'll be in Quebec during the holidays. Even if it torches in the east, it'll still be cold enough there for snow.

Don’t you dare jinx us up here in God’s Country lol

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Head to Canaan valley this winter lol

 

14 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

If there is a storm on a weekend I just may. 

My IKON pass is good at snowshoe, kids love it there.  Might be there a lot of weekends this winter.  In 2022 I was at Snowshoe for that big storm they got in January, I think we had a few inches here before rain but it was like 30-40" there, hard to tell it was windy but it made that winter feel a lot better. 

[CAPE]

16 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo- it could be a signal of a potential strong -AO in Dec. That in itself, regardless of enso state, is the single best long range indicator of an above normal snow season. I'd have to dig in a hard drive of a computer in storage to find my spreadsheet... so that won't be happening lol but iirc, a December mean AO of -1.25 or lower indicates an 80% chance of above average snowfall for the season. 

My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

[CAPE]

Way out there, but this looks Negative AO-ish

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Way out there, but this looks Negative AO-ish

Ya think lol

[Terpeast]

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000

A bit west would have more ridging into AK which would help us with cold air

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

100!  That's my fear if we have a total fail...that's probably how.  

[stormy]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

I agree 100%!!     IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO.

I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27.  For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall.

The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 -  72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO  and 91/92 at +2.3  with an average +1.10  AO and -.50 NAO. 

Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.

[WEATHER53]

The main thing is that Miller A’s will make their return and instead of 0-1 this season we will have 6-8 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The main thing is that Miller A’s will make their return and instead of 0-1 this season we will have 6-8 

Yes. Perfect track Miller A rainstorms.

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, stormy said:

I agree 100%!!     IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO.

I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27.  For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall.

The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 -  72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO  and 91/92 at +2.3  with an average +1.10  AO and -.50 NAO. 

Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.

More times than not, a -AO and a -NAO occur simultaneously. Probably more so in  Nino. -AO tends to bring the colder air southward instead of keeping it bottled up well north- which is obv important- but a NAO block tends to lock in cold HP in an ideal spot for coastal storms.

[CAPE]

Some here don't recognize a simple troll job when they see it lol.

[stormy]

The desired pattern occured in 2009 - 2010 when we had an AO at -2.0 and a - AO of 3.50.

Will this ever happen again with an El Nino of +1.5???  

[stormy]

Just now, stormy said:

The desired pattern occured in 2009 - 2010 when we had an AO at -2.0 and a - AO of 3.50.

Will this ever happen again with an El Nino of +1.5???  

Make that an NAO of 2.0.

[stormy]

Just now, stormy said:

Make that an NAO of 2.0.

NAO of -2.0

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

100!  That's my fear if we have a total fail...that's probably how.  

I mean...is there any evidence fo suggest that low doesn't park there like that? Guessing that's how 97-98 failed

[WxUSAF]

Euro apparently had a true SSW in today’s run. Would be unprecedented so early in the year 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

Oh man that is an ugly look.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Oh man that is an ugly look.

Yeah. With how east based this is, i think it will try to default to this pattern. Maybe the strat warming will somehow shake this up and give us something better

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah. With how east based this is, i think it will try to default to this pattern. Maybe the strat warming will somehow shake this up and give us something better

I'm not sure a favorable Atlantic side would even save us with flow off the Pacific like that. Even if we got a strong -NAO pattern what would our cold air source be? I suppose you could try to get homegrown air from Canada but with an active STJ I wonder if you could ever reduce heat fluxes from the south enough to allow a real buildup of cold air. 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm not sure a favorable Atlantic side would even save us with flow off the Pacific like that. Even if we got a strong -NAO pattern what would our cold air source be? I suppose you could try to get homegrown air from Canada but with an active STJ I wonder if you could ever reduce heat fluxes from the south enough to allow a real buildup of cold air. 

NAO probably won’t save us with a pac like that. But if we get something (like a strat warming or -AO) to buckle that pac jet and allow cold air to get down here, we could time it with a STJ wave and that’s how we score big. 

[SnowenOutThere]

On 10/21/2026 at 10:46 PM, bncho said:

This is a great post. I'm currently reading about a book about the carbon cycle and global warming, so hopefully I'll be able to understand more about this topic!

Thank you, I try to share what I learn in my courses with the forum to pass it forward. Also, it's nice that you're learning all that stuff. If you ever have questions about the global climate response piece I can help you with that (carbon cycle wise I've lost most of that knowledge post AP environmental science in Junior year). While learning the concepts might not (but hopefully does) feel interesting they lay the groundwork for understanding the atmosphere as a dynamic system. I don't know what you plan to major in (you have a lot of years to figure that out, if you want to go to college that is) but if it's related to atmospheric science/environmental science you will thank yourself for paying attention now. 

On 10/22/2026 at 10:16 AM, psuhoffman said:

100%

I commend your effort, but we've had this discussion before and the handful of people in here who need to hear that again I don't think are on a cognitive level capable of understanding it.  And before you come for my head, yes that makes me sound incredibly conceited, but the few of you I am talking about (and you know who you are) have given me absolutely no objective evidence to the contrary.  

I understand your feeling on this but I truly believe that most everyone in this subforum is capable of understanding the math behind our climate; after all, it's a mix of algebra and the most basics of calculus alongside understanding some concepts (those being the solar constant, albedo effect, and greenhouse gas effect).

However, some very influential people have a strong vested interest in creating a reality where that equation is wrong. I do not blame the people for believing in that reality - no one wants to be wrong after all. That said, if there is one thing that my social psychology class has taught me it is that attitude change requires the ability to admit you're wrong which is a very difficult thing for people to do. The people who don't believe in climate change aren't stupid, they aren't evil, and they aren't backwards. They are humans. Yes, humans who are wrong on the issue, and yes humans who actions cause real harm, but you aren't ever going to change their minds by pretending they are somehow below you. If you truly care about changing other peoples minds then you need to put aside malice and extend empathy towards them with how you explain the concept. Ultimately, we are all extremely susceptible creatures to outside influences and the only way we can really understand one another is through seeing people as people and not a walking conglomeration of ideas.

If you are one of the posters who disagree with me on climate change I want to say two things directly to you. 1. Thank you for reading this far. 2. Think about who benefits from a world where climate change doesn't exist. Think about how much political power and influence those groups have to loose if climate action occurs. Think about if those groups truly have your best intentions at heart of if they are trying to use you as a voting block to hold onto their power. Just think about it for a minute or two the next time year hear/read an anti-climate change ad or paper - and think about where the money for that ad came from. 

If you can't tell this moral goes beyond climate change for me.