Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[ravensrule]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO. 

Who hacked your account Chuck? You're making me nervous with your positivity. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold?

I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case

An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao. 

[Cobalt]

On 9/14/2026 at 8:27 PM, Terpeast said:

2 things can be true. A winter could be warm and rainy, and it could also have a blizzard. 

This is the thing forky is deliberately forgetting. 2023-24 averaged 0.7F warmer (DCA) compared to 97-98, and had 8" of snowfall. 15-16 was only 0.5F colder than 97-98. Likewise, 72-73 was 3F colder than that winter, but was also a shutout. A Super Nino can overwhelm the base state with torcherrific airmasses for 90% of the winter, but it very evidently does its best to load the deck in the few intervals that temperatures are remotely seasonable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold?

I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case

An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao. 

Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/14/2026 at 2:23 PM, forkyfork said:

this is stronger and further east than 1997. why is anyone remotely hopeful

I think your thought process is intentionally linear here.....you know damn well how chaotic snowfall is and the bar that year is pretty damn low...I'll take the over. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/15/2026 at 3:16 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO. 

You don't think +EPO has been historically favored during super El Nino with a huge GOA low?? The seasonal mean will be +EPO, but I think we can have some fleeting periods of cross polar flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We won the toss in 2016 so I'm predicting we lose it this time, lol We only win the super niño toss every other time!

There will undoubtedly be less MC influence this season relative to 2016.

[psuhoffman]

23 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

Who is saying it will be?   Most I see are saying it's likely to be warm and wet but at least we have a chance to score one huge snowstorm if we get lucky and time up one of the storms with cold...which is what all the east based strong nino's indicate is our fate.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who is saying it will be?   Most I see are saying it's likely to be warm and wet but at least we have a chance to score one huge snowstorm if we get lucky and time up one of the storms with cold...which is what all the east based strong nino's indicate is our fate.  

100%. Strong ninos tend to run on the mild side but they also favor decent qpf makers and good storm tracks for our specific region. A good track can't do it by itself though so now we're drilled down into a level a detail that can only be wildly guessed at and not predicted until much further down the road. East based and basin wide ninos don't "eliminate" cold air in the east when it matters and there is no reason to assume warmth will completely overwhelm at this stage. 

I feel pretty confident that the AO will not be hostile and is more likely to be favorable than the opposite. December is important there. Even if it doesn't help during December, a solid -AO in December often translates into a -AO in Jan and/or Feb. NAO? Beats me. Fickle beast... lol

I don't see anyone around here banging a big snow drum in the MA region. Cautiously optimistic until proven otherwise is a fair take imho. The only thing I feel pretty certain about is this winter will not be as cold and dry as last winter. Easy call there.

[Winter Wizard]

Even in the two Super El Ninos (1972-73 and 1997-98) that produced near shutout winters, it wasn't because of lack of opportunities. There were big storms, just elsewhere.

January 1973 was one of the biggest daily snowfalls in Virginia Beach's history. Then February 1973 was one of the most greatest snowstorms in the Southeast.

1998 had one of the worst ice storms on record in New England and an all timer blizzard in Kentucky. Even interior areas of the Northeast managed to do well in some of the events that were all rain near I-95. It's not hard to see how those storms could become an I-95 hit instead if the deck is reshuffled. 

Pinpointing whether storms are a hit or miss comes down to storm track, which partially comes down to luck but more so based on large scale teleconnections that cannot be accurately pinpointed this far out. Either way, warm overall (dare I say torch) with a higher than usual chance of a KU seems like a reasonable call. 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. Strong ninos tend to run on the mild side but they also favor decent qpf makers and good storm tracks for our specific region. A good track can't do it by itself though so now we're drilled down into a level a detail that can only be wildly guessed at and not predicted until much further down the road. East based and basin wide ninos don't "eliminate" cold air in the east when it matters and there is no reason to assume warmth will completely overwhelm at this stage. 

I feel pretty confident that the AO will not be hostile and is more likely to be favorable than the opposite. December is important there. Even if it doesn't help during December, a solid -AO in December often translates into a -AO in Jan and/or Feb. NAO? Beats me. Fickle beast... lol

I don't see anyone around here banging a big snow drum in the MA region. Cautiously optimistic until proven otherwise is a fair take imho. The only thing I feel pretty certain about is this winter will not be as cold and dry as last winter. Easy call there.

If the AO is persistently negative, it seems to correlate to at least some -NAO episodes, esp in a Nino. Just going on memory/intuition. They do seem to jibe more times than not. Ofc 2009-10 is the benchmark, but this Nino is not going to be that. Just need a 2 week period where everything aligns like Jan 2016.

[JenkinsJinkies]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

I never heard of the authors/site, but 40/70 was pretty critical of them over in the New England forums winter thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, Winter Wizard said:

Even in the two Super El Ninos (1972-73 and 1997-98) that produced near shutout winters, it wasn't because of lack of opportunities. There were big storms, just elsewhere.

January 1973 was one of the biggest daily snowfalls in Virginia Beach's history. Then February 1973 was one of the most greatest snowstorms in the Southeast.

1998 had one of the worst ice storms on record in New England and an all timer blizzard in Kentucky. Even interior areas of the Northeast managed to do well in some of the events that were all rain near I-95. It's not hard to see how those storms could become an I-95 hit instead if the deck is reshuffled. 

Pinpointing whether storms are a hit or miss comes down to storm track, which partially comes down to luck but more so based on large scale teleconnections that cannot be accurately pinpointed this far out. Either way, warm overall (dare I say torch) with a higher than usual chance of a KU seems like a reasonable call. 

Yea, major El Niño season's are very high stakes....the dice are loaded towards huge events, but opportunities for more quotidian, or pedestrian snowfalls are limited by a dearth of cold in the seasonal mean, so it can be tough to sniff climo snowfall if you whiff on the big dogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great stuff in here today.

[bncho]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great stuff in here today.

the mid-atl forum is really great, i'm glad to be able to discuss with and learn from such knowledgable and down to earth posters

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016. 

You also have to consider potential hybrid patterns and what that may look like. I think it's safe to assume that there will be more of a traditional El Nino response than 2023 and even 2015.

[Terpeast]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great stuff in here today.

Keep coming here more often. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Keep coming here more often. 

I was thinking similar to 2015 as far as residual MC influence when I did my early polar and Pacific work this summer in an effort to start conservative and err on the side of caution, but I am starting to lean less than that now.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking similar to 2015 as far as residual MC influence when I did my early polar and Pacific work this summer in an effort to start conservative and err on the side of caution, but I am starting to lean less than that now.

I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016

 

2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

 

 

The mean DJFM AO value of the polar composite near neutral and barely positive, at .09, and the NAO is moderately positive at .49, with high latitude blocking heavily weighted towards February and March, all of which represent a reasonable preliminary seasonal forecast for winter 2026-2027.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...

Conclusions Concerning the Extra Tropical Pacific

It will be the volatility of the northern Pacific that will dictate the mercurial nature of winter 2026-2027, and an unprecedentedly powerful El Niño will be the primary catalyst. The barrage of immense WWBs responsible for the extreme magnitude of El Niño will also ensure that winter is mild in the mean due to the initial eastern orientation of the warm ENSO event. Ironically enough, it is these same WWBs that will also preclude winter 2026-2027 from being as warm as many within weather circles who have been conditioned by climate change may think, as it will also act to reduce the heavy MC flavor that we have become so accustomed to in modern versions of El Niño. There are no "silver bullets" with respect to seasonal forecasting, but perhaps the closest notion is the ability to hone in on the most anomalous pattern driver and simply follow its' lead. In case it hasn't been mentioned, El Niño is about to set the record for just about every measurement used to assess its' intensity, and the 4.1C anomaly measured in region 1.2 the weeks of July 29th and August 5th are the greatest ever recorded within any ENSO region. Excuse this forecaster for not being surprised that the winter 2026-2027 Extra tropical Pacific composite just so happens to be a carbon copy of the ENSO region 1.2 correlation with the winter pattern.

 

In closing, forecast symmetry for winter 2026-2027 continues to strengthen with he addition of the extra tropical Pacific to the consensus.

Polar Analog Composite, Solar Analog Composite

QBO Analog Composite, Extra Tropical Pacific Composite

Intense El Niño Composite, Basin-Wide El Niño Composite:

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Latest CFS December won't make many friends in the east but this type of configuration makes sense to me as winter gets underway. Imho, a fast start is unlikely no matter how the hemisphere plays out in real time. A deep trough off the west coast and Pac overwhelm in the east is a very real possibility as the winter season gets started. 

I'm not sold on this look or anything the CFS puts out in general lol but I also wouldn't be surprised if some version of this is how Dec looks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Latest CFS December won't make many friends in the east but this type of configuration makes sense to me as winter gets underway. Imho, a fast start is unlikely no matter how the hemisphere plays out in real time. A deep trough off the west coast and Pac overwhelm in the east is a very real possibility as the winter season gets started. 

I'm not sold on this look or anything the CFS puts out in general lol but I also wouldn't be surprised if some version of this is how Dec looks. 

Totally reasonable....that ridge should lift up towards the NAO domain in January, as the GOA low retrogrades and forces the ridge away from the Aleutians.

[Winter Wizard]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, major El Niño season's are very high stakes....the dice are loaded towards huge events, but opportunities for more quotidian, or pedestrian snowfalls are limited by a dearth of cold in the seasonal mean, so it can be tough to sniff climo snowfall if you whiff not the big dogs.

Agreed. The frequency of events is almost certainly going to be lower than normal. The question is, will we be able to take advantage of the opportunities when they arise? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The most glaring commonality between the QBO composite and both the solar and intense El Niño composites is the pronounced ridging stretching from the northeastern CONUS and into central Canada, which obviously is a rather mild signal for the forecast area in the seasonal mean. However, it has been mentioned on numerous occasions that neither of these winter composites are entirely bereft of high latitude blocking or even shorts bursts of severe winter weather. This is evident in the bifurcation of the composite below.

This is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance.

What is clear is that as El Niño begins to wane and perhaps shift somewhat to the west as the season evolves, the Gulf of Alaska low begins to retrograde, which allows the central Canadian-Northeastern CONUS ridge to lift up into the NAO domain. This mid-to-latter season progression is the crux of the volatility and Modoki-like episode(s) that have been referenced with the respect the overall characterization of the polar domain. The primary risk here for a transition to a significantly colder pattern is that the block is more oriented towards the Eastern portion of the NAO domain, which is especially evident in the more meager El Niño analogs that did not have the very cohesive Gulf of Alaska low that is synonymous with El Niño. 

 

The inference is that the development of the more Modoki like intervals during the second half of the season is contingent on the progression of the mid latitudes of the northern Hemisphere growing more redolent of traditional El Niño as boreal winter ensues, which should take place given the forecast for this warm ENSO event to reach an unprecedented magnitude as Mother Nature gives her best shot at the redistribution of that stagnant west Pacific warm pool

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Latest CFS December won't make many friends in the east but this type of configuration makes sense to me as winter gets underway. Imho, a fast start is unlikely no matter how the hemisphere plays out in real time. A deep trough off the west coast and Pac overwhelm in the east is a very real possibility as the winter season gets started. 

I'm not sold on this look or anything the CFS puts out in general lol but I also wouldn't be surprised if some version of this is how Dec looks. 

That's a pretty ugly 500mb chart for December. Hello 65 and sunny on Christmas.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a pretty ugly 500mb chart for December. Hello 65 and sunny on Christmas.

I deleted my post re the Cfs2 as it seems the Cfs2 site is stuck on 9/12. 

Looks like TT, as of today’s link, is more current. 

Those government guys are tricky! 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a pretty ugly 500mb chart for December. Hello 65 and sunny on Christmas.

Just looking at the real time Pac ssta plots makes it really hard (for me) to make a case for a remotely cold December. PDO index #s have trended less hostile but thats only a numerical index.... the visual of the Pac is quite hostile still and it's a long ways away from what we consider a favorable enso/pdo combo.... There's a lot of rippin deep red where we want anything but lol

 

As fall progresses it should continue to cool and reconfigure towards at least a semi normal Npac during a Nino but its  hard to ignore how ugly the Npac is right now. Its hard to imagine a favorable pac pattern setting in quick for the Eastern conus. This is one of the main reasons I think the Dec CFS idea makes sense.