Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 9 hours ago, Ji said: Looks good to me. It’s looking colder than what models had for 23-24 Nino Long range models constantly had a 500mb trough over the Mid Atlantic, including the Euro. This held all Summer/Fall then in the Winter the long range Euro weeklies were constantly showing the same pattern, a trough over the Mid Atlantic. It didn't work out - 23-24 was the warmest winter on record for US. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Going to be a really Super Nino. +8C has appeared in the subsurface. I think only 1997 matched this. I love strong events - because seeing how the global pattern responds gives indications about the current state of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread during the past hour. I see that J.B. has defaulted to 97-98. I pray that he is correct. 97-98 averaged +2.20 Nino, the ECMWF is closer to 3.00 for this coming winter. As most realize, we are in a serious to extreme, drought. To prevent hardship for many in our society, we need lots of rainfall or melted snow over an extended period of time. I pray for a repeat of 97 - 98 because it was the wettest winter of any of 9 strong Nino's back to 1950. I received 22.62" of rain and melted snow compared to a normal 8.40" of precip. in DJF. Regarding snowfall in 97-98, 33 inches was 9 inches above normal for Augusta County. Regarding NAO or AO for Augusta snowfall ?? The NAO doesn't seem to be really important, but the AO should be firmly negative according to historical observations. During 97-98 the AO averaged -2.00 and the NAO averaged about -.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 hours ago, stormy said: I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread... True. Gold spun from straw, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said: True. Gold spun from straw, perhaps. The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment. 72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow. 86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow. 09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 The wait is over. After today, shorter days until late December. One thing I'm noticing is, despite chances for AN temps among some models, I'm not seeing any all out furnace runs...not yet at least. Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers out there. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I wish 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 20 minutes ago, frd said: I wish Looks Modoki, but that's probably a long shot at this point. But it's not alone completely as Cansips has a more Modoki/central Pacific centered max: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=sstaMean_noice_month&runtime=2026060100&fh=8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf757075 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 On 6/21/2026 at 10:47 AM, mitchnick said: Looks Modoki, but that's probably a long shot at this point. But it's not alone completely as Cansips has a more Modoki/central Pacific centered max: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=sstaMean_noice_month&runtime=2026060100&fh=8 If we can get a +pdo and some semblance of a -amo, we may be in good shape this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM WB 7/1 Canad. Jan-Mar. looks wet, hopefully will get enough cold... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:22 PM CanSIPS has a basin wide Nino for the winter months. If that verifies the chances for snow vs mostly rain will largely be determined by the HL pattern. As currently advertised the h5 look(+PNA/-EPO/ possibly -AO/NAO should bring some colder air southward at times to combine with a pronounced STJ and some favorable storm tracks. All speculation at this juncture ofc. I will 100% roll with that idea. Anything but a strong East-based event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:08 PM Cansips really shifts the El Nino west. Looks dominant in 3.4. Not sure that's going to happen with the current orientation of the subsurface, and Nino 1+2 currently being +2.8c vs Nino 3.4 +1.3c. It looks like it actually cools the far eastern Nino regions between now and the Winter. Don't think that's going to happen with the ECMWF Seasonal forecasting the strongest El Nino on record. Also we haven't seen that "easy +PNA" over a long term period in the Pacific for a very long time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:28 PM 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Cansips really shifts the El Nino west. Looks dominant in 3.4. Not sure that's going to happen with the current orientation of the subsurface, and Nino 1+2 currently being +2.8c vs Nino 3.4 +1.3c. It looks like it actually cools the far eastern Nino regions between now and the Winter. Don't think that's going to happen with the ECMWF Seasonal forecasting the strongest El Nino on record. Also we haven't seen that "easy +PNA" over a long term period in the Pacific for a very long time. Let us dream a little, Chuck. Its July 1 lol. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted Thursday at 07:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 07:37 AM Having CanSIPS and JMA on our side at this point is actually encouraging no matter what ECMWF and Chuck say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:18 PM 14 hours ago, MDstorm said: Having CanSIPS and JMA on our side at this point is actually encouraging no matter what ECMWF and Chuck say With the projected strength of this Niño, anything on our side is encouraging at this point! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Friday at 01:29 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:29 AM On 6/19/2026 at 7:11 PM, Weather Will said: Hey Ji, did you do this graphic? Okay Ji, excellent graphic. But Texas does not want all that cold. Stop the cold and snow at Dallas. Above normal rain and mild south of there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:39 AM 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: With the projected strength of this Niño, anything on our side is encouraging at this point! I think that's a fallacy. There aren't enough examples and NAO/AO has been skewed more positive on Super events (which is a more random point). You have to go back to the physical mechanics of El Nino - Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super is the same. Difference of course being whether it's east or west based, but I think if it was a +3.5c Nino 4-based El Nino people would be saying blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 01:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:41 AM 18 hours ago, MDstorm said: Having CanSIPS and JMA on our side at this point is actually encouraging no matter what ECMWF and Chuck say I don't think it's impossible to have -EPO during El Nino's. Historical analogs are probably too +EPO (further north in latitude is more of a "random point" than like the PNA and NPH). If you look at the reverse of 1895-1948 La Nina's, it's very -EPO/WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:08 PM On 7/2/2026 at 9:39 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think that's a fallacy. There aren't enough examples and NAO/AO has been skewed more positive on Super events (which is a more random point). You have to go back to the physical mechanics of El Nino - Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super is the same. Difference of course being whether it's east or west based, but I think if it was a +3.5c Nino 4-based El Nino people would be saying blowtorch I thought this whole thread was a fallacy! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago New Euro seasonal has potential written all over it. Very wet with coastal storms clearly favored. Temps look to cooperate (only a little AN Nov-Jan) more than one may have thought with s Niño as strong as advertised. Here's a link to the free parameters. Unfortunately, they only go out to January, but if what it's showing holds for next month's forecast, Feb (March too?) should be rockin'. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} How's this for a mean Surface pressure Nov-Jan? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: New Euro seasonal has potential written all over it. Very wet with coastal storms clearly favored. Temps look to cooperate (only a little AN Nov-Jan) more than one may have thought with s Niño as strong as advertised. Here's a link to the free parameters. Unfortunately, they only go out to January, but if what it's showing holds for next month's forecast, Feb (March too?) should be rockin'. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} How's this for a mean Surface pressure Nov-Jan? Looks like its trying to put out a canonical nino pattern. I think it will be warmer than its saying given all this ocean warmth, but may be not by much. It will be interesting to see if the strength of this el nino will be enough to break the -pdo/-enso background state. 2023-24 nino tried to, but it wasn’t enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WB EURO latest seasonal through Jan. Maps: December and January temps and precip; Jan. Pacific Ocean temps, and Jan. upper air. Wet like the Canadian, but not as cold as the Canadian. It will be interesting to see how this trends over the upcoming months. We just need it cold enough to snow... One note: is encouraging not to see a SER this winter! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO latest seasonal through Jan. Maps: December and January temps and precip; Jan. Pacific Ocean temps, and Jan. upper air. Wet like the Canadian, but not as cold as the Canadian. It will be interesting to see how this trends over the upcoming months. We just need it cold enough to snow... One note: is encouraging not to see a SER this winter! Get that ridge max in SE Canada 100 miles further north than progged and we'll be fat city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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