Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM 9 hours ago, Ji said: Looks good to me. It’s looking colder than what models had for 23-24 Nino Long range models constantly had a 500mb trough over the Mid Atlantic, including the Euro. This held all Summer/Fall then in the Winter the long range Euro weeklies were constantly showing the same pattern, a trough over the Mid Atlantic. It didn't work out - 23-24 was the warmest winter on record for US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Going to be a really Super Nino. +8C has appeared in the subsurface. I think only 1997 matched this. I love strong events - because seeing how the global pattern responds gives indications about the current state of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 12:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 PM I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread during the past hour. I see that J.B. has defaulted to 97-98. I pray that he is correct. 97-98 averaged +2.20 Nino, the ECMWF is closer to 3.00 for this coming winter. As most realize, we are in a serious to extreme, drought. To prevent hardship for many in our society, we need lots of rainfall or melted snow over an extended period of time. I pray for a repeat of 97 - 98 because it was the wettest winter of any of 9 strong Nino's back to 1950. I received 22.62" of rain and melted snow compared to a normal 8.40" of precip. in DJF. Regarding snowfall in 97-98, 33 inches was 9 inches above normal for Augusta County. Regarding NAO or AO for Augusta snowfall ?? The NAO doesn't seem to be really important, but the AO should be firmly negative according to historical observations. During 97-98 the AO averaged -2.00 and the NAO averaged about -.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM 2 hours ago, stormy said: I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread... True. Gold spun from straw, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM 1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said: True. Gold spun from straw, perhaps. The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment. 72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow. 86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow. 09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago The wait is over. After today, shorter days until late December. One thing I'm noticing is, despite chances for AN temps among some models, I'm not seeing any all out furnace runs...not yet at least. Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers out there. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I wish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, frd said: I wish Looks Modoki, but that's probably a long shot at this point. But it's not alone completely as Cansips has a more Modoki/central Pacific centered max: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=sstaMean_noice_month&runtime=2026060100&fh=8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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