Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, Ji said:

Looks good to me. It’s looking colder than what models had for 23-24 Nino

Long range models constantly had a 500mb trough over the Mid Atlantic, including the Euro. This held all Summer/Fall then in the Winter the long range Euro weeklies were constantly showing the same pattern, a trough over the Mid Atlantic. It didn't work out - 23-24 was the warmest winter on record for US. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Going to be a really Super Nino. +8C has appeared in the subsurface. I think only 1997 matched this. 

I love strong events - because seeing how the global pattern responds gives indications about the current state of things. 

[stormy]

I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread during the past hour.

I see that J.B. has defaulted to 97-98.   I pray that he is correct.  97-98 averaged +2.20 Nino, the ECMWF is closer to 3.00 for this coming winter.

As most realize, we are in a serious to extreme, drought.  To prevent hardship for many in our society, we need lots of rainfall or melted snow over an extended period of time.

I pray for a repeat of 97 - 98 because it was the wettest winter of any of 9 strong Nino's back to 1950. I received 22.62" of rain and melted snow compared to a normal 8.40" of precip. in DJF.  Regarding snowfall in 97-98, 33 inches was 9 inches above normal for Augusta County.

Regarding NAO or AO for Augusta snowfall ??   The NAO doesn't seem to be really important, but the AO should be firmly negative according to historical observations.  During 97-98 the AO averaged -2.00 and the NAO averaged about -.30".

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread...

True.

Gold spun from straw, perhaps.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

True.

Gold spun from straw, perhaps.

The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment.

72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow.  86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow.  09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important.