2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[Windspeed]

Nolo is looking spectacular this morning and well on its way to becoming another 2026 EPAC/CPAC Category 5.

[Windspeed]

Increased shear over Nolo put a halt on Category 5 being attained. Peaked at 135 kts.

[Windspeed]

Polo is approaching landfall. Shear is also affecting Polo, but it is now better aligned with the hurricane's vector of motion, which should mitigate any significant weakening prior to landfall. Intense convection is currently firing in the eastern and northern semicircles of the eyewall and spilling over the eye, giving an assymetric structure. However, we're close enough to landfall that it will likely remain officially a Category 3 landfall at this point since the last recon mission confirmed 100 kts. Morgerman is headed to the community of Las Barrancas, which still looks like a close point of landfall. If he nails the eye, he should get enough data to help confirm.

[olafminesaw]

One rather strange thing about Polo is despite multiple ERCs/structural changes it remains a relatively compact hurricane. In fact the code has remained roughly the same size throughout its life

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

One rather strange thing about Polo is despite multiple ERCs/structural changes it remains a relatively compact hurricane. In fact the code has remained roughly the same size throughout its life

That is odd.  Usually every ERC, the radii of TS and HU winds expands somewhat.

[GaWx]

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:
 

 

[Wannabehippie]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:
 

 

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB

"8:15 pm  Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang.
Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas."
That 8:15pm is his local time

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB

"8:15 pm  Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang.
Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas."
That 8:15pm is his local time

From 5AM EDT NHC discussion:

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected for Key Message number 1.

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.

[GaWx]

 Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Rachel well on its way to becoming *yet another* high end Major hurricane in this ludicrous EPAC season

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Rachel well on its way to becoming *yet another* high end Major hurricane in this ludicrous EPAC season

In the next week, given Rachel and Nolo will be around for some time, we should make it to #2 for most ACE in an E/CPAC season.

[Chinook]

powerful Hurricane Rachel yesterday at a strength of 105 knots

[olafminesaw]

Dang Nola. Not many major hurricanes cross the date line

[Chinook]

strange Hurricane Nolo

[Boston Bulldog]

35 minutes ago, Chinook said:

strange Hurricane Nolo

Began as a depression in the E-pac that dissipated, then made a sudden comeback and instantly began threatening the Big Island almost a week later

[gallopinggertie]

NHC is now predicting Rachel to stay tropical upon landfall, though in the forecast discussion they say it’s not certain. Either way it’s unusual for a EPac system to make landfall so far north.

[Windspeed]

Simon appears to be doing what most EPAC hurricanes have done this year. It's undergoing rapid intensification. A pinhole eye has formed in the direct center of the tiny CDO. This is a microcane for now and on it's way to becoming a major hurricane today. It will most likely grow in size over the weekend. It's tiny core will expand, and the pinehole eye should give way to a larger eye eventually.

[MJO812]

San Diego under a Tropical Storm Watch

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

San Diego under a Tropical Storm Watch

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 124.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southern California
coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange
County Line.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the 
west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas 
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border and, the east coast of Baja 
California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border
northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line
* West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border
* East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to
Puerto Penasco
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, 
and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of 
Rachel.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
Satellite images indicate that Rachel is struggling to maintain deep 
convection, with only limited and shallow convection remaining near 
the center of circulation. A scatterometer pass received shortly 
after the previous advisory indicated peak winds of around 43 kt. 
Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 44 kt, 
while the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T2.5/35 kt. Given the 
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this 
advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward at an estimated 055/4 kt. A 
deepening mid-to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific 
toward the western United States is expected to steer Rachel 
northeastward to north-northeastward with an increasing forward 
speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the 
system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late 
Saturday or early Sunday before continuing northeastward into the 
southwestern United States on Sunday. There has been a northward 
shift in the latest track guidance, with the global and hurricane 
regional models now bringing the center near the U.S./Mexico border 
or into extreme southern California. The latest NHC track forecast 
has been nudged northward and lies between the global and regional 
hurricane models to the left, and the HCCA and GDMI slightly to the 
right. Given this track forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been 
issued for portions of northern Baja California and southern 
California. There will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with 
the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern 
and southern semicircles of the circulation.

Rachel remains embedded within a very dry air mass, with mid-level 
relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Sea surface 
temperatures of around 24-25C will also limit convective 
organization. However, interaction with the aforementioned deepening 
trough is expected to increase mid-level moisture and improve 
upper-level divergence, allowing Rachel to produce intermittent 
bursts of deep convection and maintain tropical cyclone status. 
Furthermore, there are anomalously warm waters just offshore of 
northern Baja California for this time of year, running roughly 6-7C 
above normal. There has been a notable upward trend in the intensity 
guidance from the global and regional models this cycle, and the NHC 
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. As the system approaches the 
coast, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to displace the 
remaining convection downshear toward the northeastern portion of 
the circulation. Rachel is forecast to remain a strong tropical 
storm as it makes landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is 
expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over 
the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, reflecting the 
complex interactions between Rachel and the approaching trough, as 
well as the inherent uncertainty in how models handle these 
processes.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja 
California Peninsula and southern California at tropical storm 
strength Saturday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect 
from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico northward into southern 
California to the San Diego/Orange County Line. 

2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are 
expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior 
portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of 
higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday.

3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread 
over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja 
California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to 
increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and 
urban flooding.

4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along 
the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal 
flooding, through early next week.  Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 22.8N 124.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 23.4N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 25.1N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 28.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 33.3N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0000Z 38.1N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

Rachel Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 50
National Weather Service San Diego CA  EP182026
759 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

CAZ050-092300-
/O.NEW.KSGX.TR.A.2018.261009T1459Z-000000T0000Z/
San Diego County Valleys-
759 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Escondido
    - El Cajon
    - Lakeside
    - Poway

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley
          locations that don`t typically experience strong winds.
          Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: around 1 inch

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
          rescues, especially in and below recently burned areas.
        - Rivers may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and
          overspill their banks in a few places, especially in
          usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, arroyos,
          and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains overflow. Driving conditions
          become hazardous. Some road closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - sdcountyemergency.com

[Sickman]

This is the first time I've heard of an EPac system taking advantage of a positive trough interaction to maintain intensity further north than normal.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Warning issued to the US/MX border for Rachel... TS watch still remains at 5pm for S CA

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 124.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Baja California, from
San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to 
the San Diego/Orange County Line
* East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to
Puerto Penasco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California,
and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of
Rachel.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion

Advisory Number: 10
300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092046
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026
 
An intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since 
this morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in 
visible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily 
on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to 
the very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from 
around 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning 
indicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small 
it is.

Simon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly 
slower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is 
still anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick 
up again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are 
particularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in 
intensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the 
NHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the 
guidance envelope. 

The main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the 
exact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it 
moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track 
slightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to 
quickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther 
north in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely 
allow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, 
the difference between these track scenarios is less than the 
average error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global 
models shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance 
indicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and 
intensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to 
show Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make 
it to emphasize that risk. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a
Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
late today.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky