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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

Voyager
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Itstrainingtime
Itstrainingtime

My wife and I at last night's MLB all star game:

Voyager
Voyager

Still an hour from train time, and Tamaqua is full of people trackside already...

Voyager
Voyager

Despite a few camera malfunctions, I got some video of the Union Pacific Big Boy in Nesquehoning this morning. When I get them edited and uploaded to YouTube, I'll share them here.

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted

Maybe those rascals over at the SPC are making up stories again, who knows.  

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

   Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Monday...
   A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and
   southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast
   along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into
   the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is
   forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a
   surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer
   is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong
   instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds,
   strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet
   streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized
   severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley
   Monday afternoon into night.


   ...Day 5/Tuesday...
   The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an
   upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an
   associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH
   Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an
   area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into
   central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH
   Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

   Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the
   front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the
   Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the
   early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where
   moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The
   strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer
   shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday
   afternoon and evening.
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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I was just curious because some conifers can handle lean more then others.  If there was a hump on one side of the root flare, opposing the direction of the lean, then it was destined to fall for wind or over saturation at some point . If the root flares went out nice and straight in all directions and there was no humps ,bumps or rot in the actual central leader  then you might want to have an arborist come check your other conifers on your property if you have any.  

It was a white pine. I’m not entirely sure but the root ball does appear to have some rot and be a bit bundled. Maybe I’ll take a picture of the exposed root ball later and post it here and you can give me your thoughts. We do have a couple more of these pines but not quite as large or leaning. 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Another chilly start for much of the area again today with the Warwick DEOS as low as 48.6 degrees this AM. A great weather weekend on the way with highs from the upper 70's to low 80's and lows in the 50's to low 60's. Rain chances look to increase both Monday and Tuesday - there could be some heavy rain chances for the area.

image.png.340f08765e9d4d70a5f55d7d909d15ea.pngimage.thumb.png.4bf12cb1a102dcbf39ddd6169bfe0378.png

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
DOGE is one big reason 

I tested the “worst forecast summer ever” claim by verifying KMDT MOS guidance against routine MDT observations and comparing the same partial-season dates in every usable year from 2017 through 2026. The broad claim does **not** hold up. Using equal within-model ranks for GFS and NAM temperature, dew point, and wind speed, 2026 ranks **5th-worst out of 10** for both Memorial Day–July 15 and June 1–July 15. In other words, this season lands in the middle of the pack overall, not at the bottom of the archive.

That does **not** mean the complaints were imagined. Dew-point guidance was poor, overnight-low forecasts were the real train wreck, and several NBS, NBE, and MEX temperature busts reached **15°F**. NAM wind guidance also had some ugly stretches. Meanwhile, daytime temperature guidance, heat-index guidance, and precipitation probabilities were comparatively solid. So this was an **uneven** forecast season, not a universal collapse.

Bottom line: **2026 was not the worst overall, but it absolutely had some loud, memorable failure modes**. I attached the infographic panels belowfile_0000000043f4820c843e8121e5d230a3.jpgfile_000000005e68822fbf411812b6180aeb.jpgfile_00000000937c822f8b7bb448c17a1663.jpg

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, pawatch said:

Did the wind have anything to do with it failing? Only good thing is at least we are having cool weather and less humidity for cleanup. :unsure:

Nope, beautiful day.  I think it was just his time ha.  Yeah I have a neighbor who is a tree guy and his crew is here right now taking care of it, glad it's nice conditions for them. 

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

For @Yardstickgozinya or any other tree dudes who want to chime in.  Pic of the uprooted base.....

image.jpeg.27080976f3942cd94d1f1c72a1bb8074.jpeg

I'm really not a tree guy, but i've seen a lot of different things in my landscaping. For my unprofessional viewpoint, the likely culprit looks to be annosus .

 

1502049-PPT-e1581028822744.jpg.dd167d4d2239bc380f6070ee2513fc7a.jpg

Annosus Root Rot

  Courtesy USDA Forest Service, Bugwood.org

Hosts

Annosus root and butt rot is a commercially important disease of conifers. All southern pines are susceptible, but loblolly and slash pine are most severely affected.

Identification

Conks are often present in the litter at the base of dead or dying trees or tree stumps, or under root masses of windthrown trees. Conks, when fresh, are tan to brownish on the upper surface and white with tiny pores on the lower surface. They are rubbery and tough to tear. In the southern United States, conks are most common from December through March.

Damage

Damage from annosus root and butt rot may be scattered throughout a stand or in pockets of dead and dying pine trees called “infection centers.” Mortality is sometimes preceded by thinning and yellowing of the crown; however, some trees simply turn red and die. Trees in various stages of dying or death may suffer windthrow. Infected roots exhibit resin or pitch-soaking, and stringy root decay.

Biology

Annosus root and butt rot probably enters the stand when fungal spores land on fresh cut stump surfaces. The fungus grows through the remaining root system into nearby live trees via root grafts or contacts. Mortality usually begins 2 to 3 years after thinning and often ceases 5 to 7 years later. Damage increases with the sand content of the soil. Twelve inches (30 mm) or more of sand or sandy loam above a clay subsoil in a soil with good internal drainage is considered a high hazard site for tree mortality.

Control

Prevention and control strategies for annosus root rot include stump treatment, timing of thinnings, prescribed burns, and the manipulation of planting density

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

@Mount Joy Snowman It is a biotic and infectious tree disease  that mainly affects conifers, but it can also spread the hardwoods but apparently it rarely kills hardwoods. Calling in a arborist to be safe, probably wouldn't be a bad idea. 

I ment biotic and contagious.

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted

From nws  

KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid and unsettled into early next
week with the best odds for storms Monday PM through Tuesday PM

Shortwave energy diving southeast around the prominent upper
high centered over central and southern Plains will help to
eventually carve out a closed upper low over the eastern Great
Lakes by early next week. Expect a gradual increase in shower
and thunderstorm coverage Sunday through Tuesday with peak POPs
in the Monday PM-Tuesday PM window based on the latest ensemble
guidance. There will likely be some level of severe and/or
excessive rain risks to manage that are largely dependent on
timing/upstream system evolution at this point.

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

These well below normal last few days have knocked down the monthly temperature departure at MDT to just +1.5 through yesterday.

It’s hard to believe with the two heatwaves that we had earlier this month, but outside of that, it’s been a fairly pleasant July in terms of temperature. The severe weather has been the worst part for many of us.

@Mount Joy Snowman it’s time for your back of the envelope calculation for MDT’s final monthly departure estimate. Do you think there’s a chance that a near normal month goes in the books when all is said and done?

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