Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[anotherman]

50 here.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Day 4 clips, western Pa nwhat's slighr risk and Day 5 clips, southeastern Pa with slight risk. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Maybe those rascals over at the SPC are making up stories again, who knows.  

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

   Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Monday...
   A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and
   southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast
   along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into
   the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is
   forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a
   surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer
   is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong
   instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds,
   strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet
   streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized
   severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley
   Monday afternoon into night.


   ...Day 5/Tuesday...
   The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an
   upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an
   associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH
   Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an
   area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into
   central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH
   Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

   Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the
   front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the
   Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the
   early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where
   moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The
   strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer
   shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday
   afternoon and evening.

[Voyager]

36 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

45 this morning here. 

You yell at me about heat in the car, and look at you. Wearing a winter coat...lol

[mahantango#1]

28 minutes ago, Voyager said:

You yell at me about heat in the car, and look at you. Wearing a winter coat...lol

This cold requires drastic measures.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

50 here.

Same here in Marysville!

It can’t get much better for July!

[pawatch]

48 degrees again this morning.

Wow! Voyager you sure got that low down on your weather station.Impressive!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 54. Perfect days. Happy Friday. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I was just curious because some conifers can handle lean more then others.  If there was a hump on one side of the root flare, opposing the direction of the lean, then it was destined to fall for wind or over saturation at some point . If the root flares went out nice and straight in all directions and there was no humps ,bumps or rot in the actual central leader  then you might want to have an arborist come check your other conifers on your property if you have any.  

It was a white pine. I’m not entirely sure but the root ball does appear to have some rot and be a bit bundled. Maybe I’ll take a picture of the exposed root ball later and post it here and you can give me your thoughts. We do have a couple more of these pines but not quite as large or leaning. 

[Superstorm]

52.9F for low in Lancaster.


.

[NepaJames8602]

48 here this am in the Poconos, Beautiful. Nothing beats natural a.c.

[ChescoWx]

Another chilly start for much of the area again today with the Warwick DEOS as low as 48.6 degrees this AM. A great weather weekend on the way with highs from the upper 70's to low 80's and lows in the 50's to low 60's. Rain chances look to increase both Monday and Tuesday - there could be some heavy rain chances for the area.

[canderson]

53 here for the low. More please. 

[Jns2183]

DOGE is one big reason 

I tested the “worst forecast summer ever” claim by verifying KMDT MOS guidance against routine MDT observations and comparing the same partial-season dates in every usable year from 2017 through 2026. The broad claim does **not** hold up. Using equal within-model ranks for GFS and NAM temperature, dew point, and wind speed, 2026 ranks **5th-worst out of 10** for both Memorial Day–July 15 and June 1–July 15. In other words, this season lands in the middle of the pack overall, not at the bottom of the archive.

That does **not** mean the complaints were imagined. Dew-point guidance was poor, overnight-low forecasts were the real train wreck, and several NBS, NBE, and MEX temperature busts reached **15°F**. NAM wind guidance also had some ugly stretches. Meanwhile, daytime temperature guidance, heat-index guidance, and precipitation probabilities were comparatively solid. So this was an **uneven** forecast season, not a universal collapse.

Bottom line: **2026 was not the worst overall, but it absolutely had some loud, memorable failure modes**. I attached the infographic panels below

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[Jns2183]

I need some feedback before a website page that's basically a report which is better a, b or c

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