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June Discobs 2026


George BM
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Maybe because its 4th of July weekend and so many people will be out?  Go extremely hot and try to get the word out?  I mean besides us... I dont think many people are going to care for the difference between 100 and 105.

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Very small rain blob right over central-western Fairfax County since at least sunrise. I keep waiting for this rain cell to move east and for us to get some sunshine to reduce the dewpoint a little, but it keeps on not happening. Pretty frustrating,

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4 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I really don't know what the NWS is thinking by putting 104 and 105 into the zones.  You don't forecast historic heat 4-5 days out, especially when the only guidance giving those types of numbers are models that have known boundary layer issues.  

 

From the AFD:

==================================================================
                    *** ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore                 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936)
Washington                106 (set on Jul 20, 1930 + Aug 06, 1918)
Sterling-Dulles Airport   105 (set on Jul 22, 2011)
Baltimore Downtown        108 (set on Jul 07, 2012 + Jul 22, 2011)
Annapolis                 106 (set on Aug 06, 1918)
Hagerstown                105 (set on Jul 14, 1954)
Martinsburg               112 (set on Jul 11, 1936)
Charlottesville           107 (set on Sep 07, 1954 + 3 other times)

==================================================================
                  *** ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOWS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore                  83 (set on Aug 05, 1930 + 2 other times)
Washington                 84 (set on Jul 24, 2011 + 2 other times)
Sterling-Dulles Airport    79 (set on Aug 08, 2007)
Baltimore Downtown         88 (set on Jul 02, 2011 and Jul 10, 1993)
Annapolis                  92 (set on Jul 07, 1994)
Hagerstown                 86 (set on Jun 15, 1899)
Martinsburg                86 (set on Jul 21, 1930)
Charlottesville            85 (set on Aug 07, 1918)

==================================================================
                  *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore                 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936)
Washington                106 (set on Jul 20, 1930)
Sterling-Dulles Airport   105 (set on Jul 22, 2011)
Baltimore Downtown        108 (set on Jul 07, 2012 + Jul 22, 2011)
Annapolis                 105 (set on Jul 21, 1930 + Jul 02, 1901)
Hagerstown                105 (set on Jul 14, 1954)
Martinsburg               112 (set on Jul 11, 1936)
Charlottesville           107 (set on Jul 10, 1936 + Jul 20, 1930)

==================================================================
                 *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD WARM LOWS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore                  83 (set on Jul 21, 1930)
Washington                 84 (set on Jul 24, 2011 + 2 other times)
Sterling-Dulles Airport    78 (set on Jul 24, 2010 + Jul 08, 2010)
Baltimore Downtown         88 (set on Jul 22, 2011 + Jul 10, 1993)
Annapolis                  92 (set on Jul 07, 1994)
Hagerstown                 83 (set on Jul 24, 2010)
Martinsburg                86 (set on Jul 21, 1930)
Charlottesville            84 (set on Jul 22, 1930)

==================================================================
               *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
                          VALID: Jul 01
==================================================================
Baltimore                103 (1901)        |   80 (1933 + 1901)
Washington               102 (1901)        |   79 (1977)
Sterling-Dulles Airport   96 (2012)        |   72 (2017 + 3)
Baltimore Downtown       101 (2012)        |   82 (2012)
Annapolis                103 (1901)        |   79 (1945 + 1901)
Hagerstown               100 (1901)        |   74 (2017 + 1977)
Martinsburg              102 (1933)        |   74 (1933)
Charlottesville          101 (2012 + 1945) |   78 (1901)

==================================================================
               *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
                          VALID: Jul 02
==================================================================
Baltimore                103 (1901)        |   80 (1901)
Washington               101 (1898)        |   79 (2012 + 1872)
Sterling-Dulles Airport   98 (1966)        |   75 (2022)
Baltimore Downtown       102 (1966)        |   84 (2002)
Annapolis                105 (1901)        |   80 (1901)
Hagerstown               100 (1966)        |   74 (2018 + 1901)
Martinsburg              102 (1933 + 1931) |   75 (1933 + 1901)
Charlottesville          100 (1954)        |   76 (1910)

==================================================================
               *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
                          VALID: Jul 03
==================================================================
Baltimore                104 (1898)        |   80 (1898)
Washington               101 (1966 + 2)    |   80 (2018)
Sterling-Dulles Airport  103 (1966)        |   73 (2018 + 2)
Baltimore Downtown       102 (1997)        |   82 (2018 + 1983)
Annapolis                100 (1901)        |   84 (1896)
Hagerstown               102 (1966)        |   76 (2002)
Martinsburg              102 (1941 + 1911) |   74 (1980)
Charlottesville          100 (1966 + 1954) |   79 (1911)

IMHO, one better have darn good reason and solid model agreement when forecasting all-time record events. esp. several days out.  You don't just pick the most extreme scenario b/c that grabs the attention more to drive the hazard home. 

It is better to start more modest and work your way up as the fcst details become clearer.  When you start at the top, it's very hard to come back down b/c of the viral nature of things on social media.  And really, we know its going to very hot, so "piling on" tends be counterproductive (the apathy factor, and ppl get wise and say, "is it really that bad/dangerous b/c we've had 100+ before, and did just fine overall).  This is not being snarky, the hype pushes things like one should not even go outside at all b/c it is so "dangerous" b/c it is 100 F.  How did we ever survive as a society prior to this in-your-face danger hype or before AC, for that matter!

The problem is the media doesn't act on a "linear scale."  It's like if the temp hits 100, somehow that is *so* much worse or extreme than 99, when it is only b/c 100 is a power of 10 and a more psychologically satisfying value.  That is meaningless as to sensible wx impact.  Another example?  A piece of crap low pressure gets named a TS, and it is like end of days to the media, when typical winter storms are *far* more impressive and powerful than a weak sheared TS.

 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly going with 101 and 102 here respectively for Thursday and Friday. Pretty bold. I have never seen 100 here on my station. I will take the under.

My COOP site (RSTM2) has never hit 100° either.

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Here something a little different for general FYI.  I got this table of highest storm surges and storm tides for Portland ME (PWM).  I learned a few things here.

Storm surge and storm tide are 2 different things, but we often use them interchangeably.

Storm surge is the water height deviation from atmospheric phenomena in itself, nothing else.

Storm tide takes into account everything, the atmospheric contribution, monthly astro tides, the 19 year tidal epoch, coast rise/drop, and anything else that may influence a tide height.

In the NEUS/Mid-Atlantic we use storm tide the most b/c we have 2 high tides a day and our tidal ranges are high.  Along the Gulf Coast, storm surge used most often b/c there is only 1 high tide a day and the tidal range is low. 

For PWM, 3 of the 5 highest storm surges are not even in the top 20 highest storm tides, so that shows how one is not necessarily related to the other.  For proper historical scaling and an objective meteorological POV, storm surge is what one would use b/c that has only one factor.

For storm tides, one may note that we've had 5 top ten tides in the last 8 years.  But that is not a level playing field.  PWM sea level has risen about 8" in 100 years, and more than half of that is due to local land subsidence.
 

tide3.jpg

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Late but here! Numbers for June 2026.

Averaged high was 80.4 degrees vs a normal of 80.3 degrees, a +0.1 degree above average. The warmest temp recorded was 90.1 degrees on the 13th. Averaged low temp was 57.0 degrees vs a normal of 57.3 degrees, a -0.3 degree below average. The coolest temp recorded was 46.1 degrees on the 3rd. Overall averaged temp was 68.7 degrees vs a normal of 68.8 degrees, a -0.1 degree below average. Total rainfall for the month was 3.16 inches vs a normal of 4.20 inches, -1.04 inches below average. The wettest day was the 15th with 0.93" falling. There were 12 days with measurable, 0 days with a 'T' and 18 dry days. The highest wind recorded was 41 mph on the 15th. There were 8 days with winds above 25 mph. Lots of variation during the month with warm and cool spells but surprisingly worked out to almost a perfect average. Again, the month ended drier than normal, bad trend ongoing. A special thanks to the folks that kept up with the numbers while I was traversing the country! 

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