Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Damage In Tolland]

Putting a warmer than normal spring behind us . Moving onto summer. Will it be Steiner or Dewey and stormy ? June looks to start off torched after the first 2 days . 
Long pants are not to be worn by anyone other than work , church or funerals until mid October at earliest.

 

[SJonesWX]

WTF is a Junorch?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

WTF is a Junorch?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

So nice to consistently see this as we hit JJA now. Gone are the BN anomolies. Canada is furnaced so summer can finally settle in for good 

[Chrisrotary12]

Pellet stove on to start June. Will I ever be able to turn it off?

[kdxken]

6 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pellet stove on to start June. Will I ever be able to turn it off?

Looks like the end of the week into the weekend. Week after light her up.

[ineedsnow]

On 5/30/2026 at 2:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Putting a warmer than normal spring behind us . Moving onto summer. Will it be Steiner or Dewey and stormy ? June looks to start off torched after the first 2 days . 
Long pants are not to be worn by anyone other than work , church or funerals until mid October at earliest.

 

atleast the warmest spring month (MAY) was 2 degrees  below normal here 

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

atleast the warmest spring month (MAY) was 2 degrees  below normal here 

June likely to follow suit. How much snow you think we get?

[kdxken]

More coyotes. Mom and Dad checking the bait. 

https://youtu.be/qcvl59bp0Lk?si=rv6I4fR1A9TyBUyr

https://youtu.be/qcvl59bp0Lk?si=rv6I4fR1A9TyBUyr

https://youtu.be/4cPpA7FB8i4?si=sgYtFjzGnnEMo2N8

[Torch Tiger]

Looks dry and mild through Saturday, a few showers Sunday/early Monday then retorch next week.  Overall summer vibes

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks dry and mild through Saturday, a few showers Sunday/early Monday then retorch next week.  Overall summer vibes

Need some summer to go along with this long daylight.  I’d take consistent 70s at this point.

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Need some summer to go along with this long daylight.  I’d take consistent 70s at this point.

What's your average high up there at 1k?  63-65?

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

What's your average high up there at 1k?  63-65?

No, 69F is today’s 1,100ft average based on MPV norms.

BTV is 74F.

In another few days it ticks up to 70-75F.

[kdxken]

"Details remain uncertain, but there is a consensus across ensemble guidance for a potential system to bring showers sometime Saturday."

 

Like clockwork.

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s a cool front bringing temps from 90 down to 80

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a cool front bringing temps from 90 down to 80

90 in Tolland?

[ineedsnow]

GFS is beautiful next Sunday 

[kdxken]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is beautiful next Sunday 

Warms right back up on Monday 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is beautiful next Sunday 

I’m shocked you chose GFS and didn’t use Euro

[NoCORH4L]

Starting to look like garbage from late Thursday thru the weekend. Just can't catch a break.

[Typhoon Tip]

Couple of borderline needling OCD observations about tomorrow  ( Tues)

I would argue that frontal like PP passing thru the region early tomorrow morning is not a cold front.  It's more of a warm front, nondescript but qualitatively.  It's unusual that the pressure rises behind a warm front, but not impossible.  Most importantly, the 850 mb temperatures are rising several degrees over today and tonight, having flooded over lower Ontario upstream, sourcing from the ridge nodal block N of Lake Superior, and about to spill SE - said boundary-like feature demarcates.   

Tomorrow probably pushes against the ceiling of perfection. It can't actually get there, because ... easy philosophy, perfection is unknowable.  What is a 10::10 for any given consensus, is likely to have contrived flaw(s) by TauntonBlizzard2013 ... Or, is thematically operative in a dry dystopian horror film by Michael Bay's buddy, Damage In Tolland.   Excluding these fringe tarnishing efforts/aspect,  tomorrow will be a text book down slope study case.   800 mb to surface flow is unidirection to the sfc, transporting out of that upstream warmth ... at about 15kts up top to barely noticeable at the surface/valleys.  DPs are not appreciably high so thermal absorption into water vapor is low.   The mixing layer may stop at 900 or 875 mb, because of +d(PP)/DVM on-going, but this compresses to go along with the d-slope katabatic action.   I would go above the 77 MAV/MEX mean.   I guess to be fair... there may be some pancake tendencies around noon, but that may be transient while mixing out.

 

[MJO812]

Happy June 

1 month closer to Winter

[kdxken]

49° and misery mist. Welcome to the first day of summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

49° and misery mist. Welcome to the first day of summer.

this is probably that 15th time this spring I've pondered how in the hell civility decided to footprint this cold atmospheric sewage cistern of planetary region ... It's gonna be 70 in Maine after morning coffee while we're being strapped down in Labrador's rape shack

[Typhoon Tip]

twisted dark humor aside, we're in some kind of fractal this spring for this dog shit cold pooling (recurrent leitmotif).   If it's not synoptic in scale, it's this shit above, even more so relative to our climate - which is bad enough for this in the first place.

[WinterWolf]

Beautiful morning here…clear and 55 currently. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah and looking at sfc obs together with morning sat loopage, there's a reinforcing diffused BD slipping SW through the region this early morning

[dendrite]

It should clear out here in the next couple hours. The mank will work deeper into SNE. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It should clear out here in the next couple hours. The mank will work deeper into SNE. 

we'll see...    I suspect you're seeing the motion on sat, en masse going SW?

but this is a legit cold insert behind the weakly defined low moving E of Cape Ann out there over the lower GOM.  Already you can see strata streets filling in over Fryeburg and up along the steppe of Maine's interior.  I'm curious to see how how much 'clearing' takes place.

i'll give it to you though that the day is long and we spend longer time in apex solar so ... there'll be some thermodynamic processing

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m shocked you chose GFS and didn’t use Euro

 

On 2/17/2026 at 6:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The Euro is just another model . The problem is so many still give it so much weight based on how it performed 10+ years ago. It’s rarely correct anymore 

 

On 2/19/2026 at 6:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What a collapse by the Euro . Just threw itself at GFS feet .