Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Damage In Tolland]

Putting a warmer than normal spring behind us . Moving onto summer. Will it be Steiner or Dewey and stormy ? June looks to start off torched after the first 2 days . 
Long pants are not to be worn by anyone other than work , church or funerals until mid October at earliest.

 

[SJonesWX]

WTF is a Junorch?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

WTF is a Junorch?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

So nice to consistently see this as we hit JJA now. Gone are the BN anomolies. Canada is furnaced so summer can finally settle in for good 

[Chrisrotary12]

Pellet stove on to start June. Will I ever be able to turn it off?

[kdxken]

6 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pellet stove on to start June. Will I ever be able to turn it off?

Looks like the end of the week into the weekend. Week after light her up.

[ineedsnow]

On 5/30/2026 at 2:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Putting a warmer than normal spring behind us . Moving onto summer. Will it be Steiner or Dewey and stormy ? June looks to start off torched after the first 2 days . 
Long pants are not to be worn by anyone other than work , church or funerals until mid October at earliest.

 

atleast the warmest spring month (MAY) was 2 degrees  below normal here 

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

atleast the warmest spring month (MAY) was 2 degrees  below normal here 

June likely to follow suit. How much snow you think we get?

[kdxken]

More coyotes. Mom and Dad checking the bait. 

https://youtu.be/qcvl59bp0Lk?si=rv6I4fR1A9TyBUyr

https://youtu.be/qcvl59bp0Lk?si=rv6I4fR1A9TyBUyr

https://youtu.be/4cPpA7FB8i4?si=sgYtFjzGnnEMo2N8

[Torch Tiger]

Looks dry and mild through Saturday, a few showers Sunday/early Monday then retorch next week.  Overall summer vibes

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks dry and mild through Saturday, a few showers Sunday/early Monday then retorch next week.  Overall summer vibes

Need some summer to go along with this long daylight.  I’d take consistent 70s at this point.

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Need some summer to go along with this long daylight.  I’d take consistent 70s at this point.

What's your average high up there at 1k?  63-65?

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

What's your average high up there at 1k?  63-65?

No, 69F is today’s 1,100ft average based on MPV norms.

BTV is 74F.

In another few days it ticks up to 70-75F.

[kdxken]

"Details remain uncertain, but there is a consensus across ensemble guidance for a potential system to bring showers sometime Saturday."

 

Like clockwork.

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s a cool front bringing temps from 90 down to 80

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a cool front bringing temps from 90 down to 80

90 in Tolland?

[ineedsnow]

GFS is beautiful next Sunday 

[kdxken]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is beautiful next Sunday 

Warms right back up on Monday 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is beautiful next Sunday 

I’m shocked you chose GFS and didn’t use Euro

[NoCORH4L]

Starting to look like garbage from late Thursday thru the weekend. Just can't catch a break.

[Typhoon Tip]

Couple of borderline needling OCD observations about tomorrow  ( Tues)

I would argue that frontal like PP passing thru the region early tomorrow morning is not a cold front.  It's more of a warm front, nondescript but qualitatively.  It's unusual that the pressure rises behind a warm front, but not impossible.  Most importantly, the 850 mb temperatures are rising several degrees over today and tonight, having flooded over lower Ontario upstream, sourcing from the ridge nodal block N of Lake Superior, and about to spill SE.  

Tomorrow probably pushes against the ceiling of perfection. It can't actually get there, because ... easy philosophy, perfection is unknowable.  What is a 10::10 for any given consensus, is likely to have contrived flaw by TauntonBlizzard2013 ... Or, is thematically operative in a dystopian drought by Damage In Tolland.   Excluding these fringe perspectives ...  But tomorrow will be a text book down slope study case.   800 mb to surface flow is unilateral, at about 15kts up top to barely noticeable at the surface/valleys.   This is happening with very little if perhaps no cloud.  DPs are not appreciably high so thermal absorption into water vapor is low.   The mixing layer may stop at 900 or 875 mb, because of +d(PP)/DVM on-going, but this compresses to go along with the d-slope katabatic action.   I would go above the 77 MAV/MEX mean.