May 2026

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

its over by Monday

yes the rain should be mostly over by Monday but if you are implying this will end the drought - think again Upton only going for less than 3 inches overall more south than north

AFD from KOKX

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes the rain should be mostly over by Monday but if you are implying this will end the drought - think again Upton only going for less than 3 inches overall more south than north

AFD from KOKX

[Evie3]

In other news, I've been seeing short and medium term forecasts that indicate that the weather pattern over the Southeastern US is changing and there is a persistent moisture flow setting up (which will be very beneficial as they've been in a very severe drought that's had a major impact on agriculture etc).   I don't understand the meteorology behind all of that, but if we are on the fringes we might benefit by way of more consistent precipitation going forward (?)

[NEG NAO]

On 5/21/2026 at 3:08 PM, Brian5671 said:

Long duration rainstorm on tap-while it will help the drought the timing is awful.

True - many merchants in the shore towns will see less $$$ than expected but it will help the drought from getting any worse in the short term BUT we need soakers like this on a regular basis for a month or so to really lessen drought conditions - not lilkely with June traditionally not one of our wettest months and  a  stretch of sunny warm/hot long summer days more likely than not.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase tonight. Rain will develop tomorrow and continue into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely remain in the 50s all day on Saturday and struggle to reach the lower 60s on Sunday. The mercury will likely return to the lower 70s on Monday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -19.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.868 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

True - many merchants in the shore towns will see less $$$ than expected but it will help the drought from getting any worse in the short term BUT we need soakers like this on a regular basis for a month or so to really lessen drought conditions - not lilkely with June traditionally not one of our wettest months and  a  stretch of sunny warm/hot long summer days more likely than not.

With the nino we could see a wetter summer....