May 2026

[uofmiami]

Gusted to 33mph in Syosset & 32mph in Muttontown so far.

[TJW014]

Free skin exfoliation promo at the beach. Peak gust of 47. Pretty significant uptick over the last hour

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Free skin exfoliation promo at the beach. Peak gust of 47. Pretty significant uptick over the last hour

I was just talking with the head jones beach life gaurd and we were saying what miserable experience it would be if we were open. I can’t imagine what it’s like down there right now. These events are so localized that it could be gusting over 50 right on beach.


.

[lee59]

Wind has died down to a more reasonable level, short lived but intense wind event.

[Stormlover74]

Still pretty gusty here

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Good thread

https://x.com/i/status/2054544214952665366

 

 

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

I agree.  This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I agree.  This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous 

Certainly not worthy of any awards....that's for sure.

[Stormlover74]

Tuesday looks like a scorcher

[donsutherland1]

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s to perhaps near 90° on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will turn much cooler after midweek.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -11.78 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.054 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nj08822]

Pretty impressive storm w heavy rain here in Eastern PA.

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, nj08822 said:

Pretty impressive storm w heavy rain here in Eastern PA.

The line of showers is once again weakening as it moves east into the metro - lets see if it ends up stalling out as some guidance suggests once it is over the metro - really need the rain.....

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The line of showers is once again weakening as it moves east into the metro - lets see if it ends up stalling out as some guidance suggests once it is over the metro - really need the rain.....

Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here. 

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, MANDA said:

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

While the NAM often had unrealistic precipitation amounts especially since it wasn’t upgraded in almost 10 years, it did do much better than other models with the warm nose at 700mb to 800mb and snow to mix precipitation timing.

So we may just have to compensate for this by manually speeding up the snow to mix precipitation timing in situations which the other models are too weak with the 700-800 MB WAA.

The other story is that the SPC HREF was one of the best models showing snow banding and extreme heavy precipitation amounts. It did very well with the late February KU  and several flash flooding events over the years.