May 2026

[Monty]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

There are a few types of plants that are looking weak due to disrupted development from that freeze. Some don't really show it but, because they started flowering and the flowers froze they won't be fruiting and seed production will be severely reduced. 

My Wisteria browned out, my hostas look like they were scorched. Worst freeze in 20 years for tree fruits and the wine industry from VA through the northeast. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We need one or two loaded up El Niño southern jet setups to make it this far north with cold air. We don’t want too much blocking to squash everything south. 

Agree but I doubt that would happen with a strong el nino unless a big block forms.

[SACRUS]

55 / 39 pretty much basically a repeat of Thursday today.  Cloudy showers/ cooler Saturday. Warmer Mothers Day but clouds could cling on.  Overall cooler and wetter weerk 5/9 - 5/16.  Moderation towards the 17th and perhaps more persistent warmth in the 5/24 period / beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2000)
NYC: 91 (2000)
LGA: 89 (2000)
JFK: 86 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 36 (2020)
LGA: 37 (1947)
JFK: 39 (2020)


Historical: 

 

1784 - A deadly hailstorm in South Carolina hit the town of Winnsborough. The hailstones, measuring as much as nine inches in circumference, killed several persons, and a great number of sheep, lambs and birds. (David Ludlum)

1803 - A freak spring storm produced heavy snow from southern Indiana to New England. The storm made sleighing possible in Massachusetts, but also ruined shade trees in Philadelphia. (David Ludlum)

1840: Natchez, Mississippi: May 7-8th one of the most deadly tornado in US history strikes Natchez and Natchez Landing on the Mississippi, killing 317. (Ref. Wx. Doctor)

1874: A deadly hailstorm in South Carolina hit the town of Winnsborough. The hailstones, measuring as much as nine inches in circumference, killed several persons, and a great number of sheep, lambs and birds. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1917: Richmond, VA had a high temperature for the day of 47 °F making it the coolest May day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)

1965: A strong cold front helped produce a major tornado outbreak across central and eastern Nebraska and South Dakota. Four people were killed in Nebraska in an F4 tornado. An F5 tornado hit southern South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1974: Record Minimum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 39 °F.

1981 - The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced its worst hailstorm of record as baseball to grapefruit size hail, accompanied by 100 mph winds, caused nearly 200 million dollars damage. Hail accumulated eight inches deep at Cedar Hill TX. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-eight cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 95 degrees at Redding CA was their fifth in a row, and the record high of 102 degrees at Hanover WA was just one degree shy of their record for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley spawned a total of 57 tornadoes, including 24 in Wisconsin, and a record 22 tornadoes in one day in Iowa. There were also more than 200 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Terre Bonne Mo. At Rockford IL one person was temporarily trapped inside a portable toilet toppled by thunderstorm winds gusting to 80 mph. Fortuntely, not a single person was killed in the "Mother's Day" tornado outbreak. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 28 degrees at Asheville NC and 31 degrees at Greer SC were records for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in northwestern and north central Kansas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Brewster, and wind gusts to 92 mph south of Wakeeney. Thunderstorms over northwest Iowa deluged the town of Boone with five inches of rain flooding basements and leaving some areas under four feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

First 7 days of May Dep

 

Through the 7

 

LGA: -1.3
NYC: -1.2
JFK: -0.3
EWR: +0.5

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Anyone else notice that the freeze a couple weeks back after 90 degree temps ended up damaging and killing some oak and japanese maple leaves that were leafing out
 
Brown and shriveled. Doesnt happen often. Just a cae of bad tining Google says they will releaf but with smaller leaves

No freeze here in Nassua. My early girl tomatoes which have been in since early April are taking off now.
One thing we do have is damage to broad leaf evergreens from the winter. Especially skip laurel and Japanese acuba. My red rocket crape mryrle which died back to the ground in 15 made it this year though and is finally starting to leaf out.


.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Mother's day is trending wetter. Got tickets to Grounds for Sculpture down in Hamilton, crossing my fingers.

[steve392]

39 minutes ago, Monty said:

My Wisteria browned out, my hostas look like they were scorched. Worst freeze in 20 years for tree fruits and the wine industry from VA through the northeast. 

Only thing that truly got damaged was my citronella I had just transplanted.  Most of it browned but is coming back nicely.  My catnip looked bad too but rebounded. 

 

Hostas curled up but nothing died thankfully.  Any veggies we had in pots outside were dead on night two. 

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Mother's day is trending wetter. Got tickets to Grounds for Sculpture down in Hamilton, crossing my fingers.

Sunday looks great.  No rain til at night

[the_other_guy]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree but I doubt that would happen with a strong el nino unless a big block forms.

Next winter is toast if this plays out like they say. Awful

[FPizz]

15 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Anyone else notice that the freeze a couple weeks back after 90 degree temps ended up damaging and killing some oak and japanese maple leaves that were leafing out

 

Brown and shriveled. Doesnt happen often. Just a cae of bad tining Google says they will releaf but with smaller leaves

Yes, I noticed lots of damage to many plants around my property and when taking the dogs for a walk around the neighborhood.  My one Magnolia (about 25' tall) took the biggest hit.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is toast if this plays out like they say. Awful

if we get a super nino we'll need to hope for one big bomb 1983 or 2016 style

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No freeze here in Nassua. My early girl tomatoes which have been in since early April are taking off now.
One thing we do have is damage to broad leaf evergreens from the winter. Especially skip laurel and Japanese acuba. My red rocket crape mryrle which died back to the ground in 15 made it this year though and is finally starting to leaf out.


.

Looking around this area there’s lots of tree damage I assume from the winter storms. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is toast if this plays out like they say. Awful

A strong or super Nino ensures there’s lots of mild Pacific air flooding in. But it will also be moist and we won’t have the endless cutters/SWFE we sometimes see in Nina’s. It’ll be southern stream driven and we have to hope to time one or two of them with cold enough air. We all know what happened in Nino seasons like 2002-03, 2009-10, 1982-83, 2015-16 etc. If only 2/6/10 could’ve edged north a little more. 

[Stormlover74]

Of course now the models do bring in some rain sunday afternoon 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is toast if this plays out like they say. Awful

Dude its may. No one knows what next weeks weather will be like let alone next winter. Long range forecasting has been awful for years. 

[NEG NAO]

[NorthWestNJ]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A strong or super Nino ensures there’s lots of mild Pacific air flooding in. But it will also be moist and we won’t have the endless cutters/SWFE we sometimes see in Nina’s. It’ll be southern stream driven and we have to hope to time one or two of them with cold enough air. We all know what happened in Nino seasons like 2002-03, 2009-10, 1982-83, 2015-16 etc. If only 2/6/10 could’ve edged north a little more. 

Wasn't 2002-03 not nearly as strong a Nino as those others though?

[NEG NAO]

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall.

Showers are possible tomorrow into tomorrow evening as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s.  Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall amounts are not likely to be significant.

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -0.90 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.612 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The STJ should be active. Thats step 1. Step 2 would be blocking. Step 3 would be a negative EPO/ AO.

2009-10 is a perfect example that proves that a strong el nino winter can be cold and snowy.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2009-10 is a perfect example that proves that a strong el nino winter can be cold and snowy.

2009-2010 was a much weaker modoki compared to the 2023-2024 full basin event and what 2026-2027 is projected to be.

Plus it occurred back in a much colder climate prior to the baseline temperature jumps in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024.

This is why places from DC to Philly haven’t experienced anything close to those snowfall totals since.