May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

86. Summer now, November by Saturday.

Scott likes the June Nor'easter the GFS has early next week!  Wheel of MISFORTUNE at 500 mb!

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Scott likes the June Nor'easter the GFS has early next week!  Wheel of MISFORTUNE at 500 mb!

I hope not but some of the model models hint at it for a day or two anyways.

[vortex95]

I am surprised there is not more talk about the weekend event.  You know how rare these kind of events are in May?  And as I said, omega blocks are how you do it this time of year.  People like CoastalWx seem to fail to appreciate atypical/rare wx events since it ruins great outdoor weather or the like!  In other words, as one example, "if it's not the cold season, I don't want snow!"  Or more precisely, "if it's not IMBY, I don't care!"  LOL.  Grousing all the time seems to be SOP.

GFS and RRFS explicitly show accums in nrn NH/NW 4-8" at the higher elevations.  Look at the 850 temps valid 12z Sat.  That's *cold* and colder than previous runs (as low as -4 C).  The 500 low passes directly over the area for max dynamic cooling.  Not something to just ignore.

Also, and this is huge this time of year, the heaviest precip occurs during the overnight late Fri-early Sat.  Every degree counts this time of year for snow.  We are talking about say a 0.5 F deg difference in avg temp of the lowest 2000 ft here could mean just a mix of rain/snow or heavy snow w/ rapid accumulation.  So being at night given the strong sun angle this time of year (a factor even when thick clouds are present) matters a lot.

And given how borderline the temps are, this often results in a very fickle precip type situation.  When the precip gets heavier, it goes to all snow, and it lightens up, and goes back to rain.  It will be something that needs to be watched very closely in real-time.  The "surprise" factor is high here.

And you don't need an event like May 9-10, 1977 for the fun 'n games.  Look at May 18, 2002.  Omega block was much farther N and the 500 cut off center was no where near NEUS.  We are also talking later than any other snow event here in the last 60 years, later than 1967, 1977, and 2002.

[CT Valley Snowman]

BDL 84, BAF 84, CEF 89?.  Seems a bit warm.  

 

 

 

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

BDL 84, BAF 84, CEF 89?.  Seems a bit warm.  

 

 

 

BAF also 84, so CEF seems suspect.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, it’s cool and all, but verbatim the sensible Weather sucks. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

27 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I am surprised there is not more talk about the weekend event.  You know how rare these kind of events are in May?  And as I said, omega blocks are how you do it this time of year.  People like CoastalWx seem to fail to appreciate atypical/rare wx events since it ruins great outdoor weather or the like!  In other words, as one example, "if it's not the cold season, I don't want snow!"  Or more precisely, "if it's not IMBY, I don't care!"  LOL.  Grousing all the time seems to be SOP.

GFS and RRFS explicitly show accums in nrn NH/NW 4-8" at the higher elevations.  Look at the 850 temps valid 12z Sat.  That's *cold* and colder than previous runs (as low as -4 C).  The 500 low passes directly over the area for max dynamic cooling.  Not something to just ignore.

Also, and this is huge this time of year, the heaviest precip occurs during the overnight late Fri-early Sat.  Every degree counts this time of year for snow.  We are talking about say a 0.5 F deg difference in avg temp of the lowest 2000 ft here could mean just a mix of rain/snow or heavy snow w/ rapid accumulation.  So being at night given the strong sun angle this time of year (a factor even when thick clouds are present) matters a lot.

And given how borderline the temps are, this often results in a very fickle precip type situation.  When the precip gets heavier, it goes to all snow, and it lightens up, and goes back to rain.  It will be something that needs to be watched very closely in real-time.  The "surprise" factor is high here.

And you don't need an event like May 9-10, 1977 for the fun 'n games.  Look at May 18, 2002.  Omega block was much farther N and the 500 cut off center was no where near NEUS.  We are also talking later than any other snow event here in the last 60 years, later than 1967, 1977, and 2002.

I think if the snow line actually got down to more habitable locations vs high peaks it would draw some more people in, but yes it is meteorogically interesting.