2026 Tropical Tracking Thread

[frd]

9 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Home brew next week?

OMG please, please, please.......

The surf at most locations is a freakin lake..... wave energy like 20 to 29 ..... boring........

 

 

[WxUSAF]

@WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend???

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend???

It’s on the table. Euro AI has been leading the way but the other ensembles have a signal for something that pops off what’s likely a stalled front in the Gulf. Might get pulled up the coast, or if a trough isn’t there, steered west in the Gulf. 

[WxWatcher007]

I like seeing the GDM (Google Deep Mind) ensembles increasingly bullish on some type of development. I'm intrigued. 3/10 for now. 

[WxWatcher007]

Still pretty active

[frd]

[stormy]

5 hours ago, frd said:

Wind-shear and African Dust have killed the Atlantic Tropical season.

[Herb@MAWS]

As insignificant as it is, it’s nice to finally see at least for the moment a few clouds surviving off the Africa coast.

[WxWatcher007]

Got a little area of convection off the FL coast. Could become the seedling for our weekend low. 

[WxWatcher007]

We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. 

The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. 

The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. 

The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. 

Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. 

A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. 

 

The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. 

 

However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. 

 

The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. 

 

 

So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not. 

[WxWatcher007]

Mid-level spin but no indication of real organization yet. 

[Weather Will]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad 
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America.  However, 
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms 
are still disorganized.  Gradual development of this system is 
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves 
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.  
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and 
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as 
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during 
the next several days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

On 7/13/2026 at 6:49 AM, WxUSAF said:

@WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend???

 

On 7/13/2026 at 9:47 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s on the table. Euro AI has been leading the way but the other ensembles have a signal for something that pops off what’s likely a stalled front in the Gulf. Might get pulled up the coast, or if a trough isn’t there, steered west in the Gulf. 

Heyyy we have homebrew  

 

No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out. 

[WxWatcher007]

Probably still on track to become a TS today. Still weak and disorganized given dry air and shear, but it's progresssing.

 

[Kmlwx]

The GFS seems to be pretty insistent that something might pop and at least get close to the CONUS before a recurve. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

The GFS seems to be pretty insistent that something might pop and at least get close to the CONUS before a recurve. 

Euro ai hinting at it

[frd]

Finally something might form and get near the Islands, then head out to sea,  but at least it can send some swells to the nearby beaches for surfing. Wave energy has been lacking so far this season here and along the East Coast.  

[adelphi_sky]

19 hours ago, frd said:

Finally something might form and get near the Islands, then head out to sea,  but at least it can send some swells to the nearby beaches for surfing. Wave energy has been lacking so far this season here and along the East Coast.  

MD beaches are dealing with a jellyfish swarm. wonder if it is because of El Niño. 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

MD beaches are dealing with a jellyfish swarm. wonder if it is because of El Niño. 

Hmm, not sure.  I go to North Wildwood NJ. because the waves are better, versus Dewey Beach and the Inlet here in Delaware. 

I did hear there were jelly fish at some Delaware beaches,  but I have not heard about any at the lower Southern NJ beaches such as Cape May, the Wildwoods and Stone Harbor.  

I believe Delaware beaches are more prone to stinging jelly fish due to the effects of the Delaware Bay incubator effect. Also, North Wildwood is more exposed to open water and more active currents lessening stinging jelly swarms.   

The Cheasapeake Bay might be responsible for more jelly fish activity on the MD beaches due to salinity this year because of the drought, calmer surf and warmer temps in the Chessy .   

 

[dailylurker]

It's kinda boring not having any tropical to track this time of year. No big swells, no cone of uncertainty, no weenie NAM runs with a cat 5 into Annopoils. Nothing but dust and cobwebs. 

[WxWatcher007]

MDR is showing signs of life for a brief moment at least. Might get two TCs out of it. Would need to watch if they get shunted toward the U.S. 

[WxWatcher007]

Well, that was a bust  

Peak season forecast will come out this week. 

[WxWatcher007]

I'm late, but that's what happens when the basin is dead. 

WxWatcher007 2026 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

For those of you that have been around a while you know that this is peak season forecast number eight! Tropical is my chief weather passion. I've tracked it for decades and been chasing it for nearly a decade now with 16 overall chases. Last year was the first time since I started in 2017 that there was no chase. We have Imelda and Humberto doing a fujiwhara off the southeast coast to thank for that. 

August 20 has come and gone and as the late Dr. Bill Gray would ring the bell heralding the start of peak season, this annual forecast is doing it too. Here's a look at past grades for the peak season forecast, which strictly covers August 20 - October 20, when approximately 2/3 of average Atlantic season activity occurs. 

Seasonal Grades

2019 Grade: B+
2020 Grade: A-
2021 Grade: C
2022 Grade: B
2023 Grade: A
2024 Grade: B
2025 Grade: B+

I've done fairly well for myself, and I've avoided disasters like the 2021 season, but now it's time to get back into A territory. We have high confidence that the 2026 peak season will all but certainly lead the overall 2026 season to end well below normal, but how low will we go? 

Quick Recap
So far, it has been a very quiet season, as expected, with only three named storms. On average, by this date (Aug 22) we should have 5 NS and 1 H. We've been nowhere close to a hurricane, but we have had two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, make landfall, with Arthur breaking the Louisiana rainfall record. So far, the AI guidance that blew past legacy models last year in tropical cyclone genesis have been excellent again and worthy of serious respect, but the hostile conditions of the Main Development Region (MDR) played tricks on all the models with destroying Invests 92L and 94L. As of today we have an underwhelming signal in the Atlantic, with two subtropical areas of interest and one MDR area that could be our first of a meaningful few MDR systems during the peak. 

 

The overall tenor of the season so far has been very quiet, dominated by what is likely to be a historically strong El Nino. Overall NS numbers are one thing, but another essential way to tell the story of the season thus far is in ACE. Even though few named storms are expected by this point in the season, we have had seasons recently with few NS and higher ACE relative to climatology. This year? Both NS and ACE are flat. Really flat. 

This really tells the story of the season so far. Conditions have not just been hostile to any development, the development has been weak and short lived due to hostile conditions. The Nino has laid the foundation for a very quiet season, but the peak season means that climatology should open some windows for development. In recent years, the seasons have been structurally backloaded with our strongest and most active periods, but this season I think the strengthening El Nino means that rather than a subseasonal period that favors a backloaded season, the windows for TC genesis are more sporadic and based on in-situ short term mid to upper level patterns that briefly break consistently hostile conditions.

 With all that said, it's time to get to the forecast. Note that the average seasonal NS/H/MH numbers are 14/7/3 and we are currently at 3/0/0.  

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 
Hurricanes: 3
Major Hurricanes: 1

Here are the factors that make up my forecast. 

1. ENSO
I think this will be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons this century, and in 2026 ENSO is fundamentally driving the show in the Atlantic. To illustrate the absolutely massive turnaround between last year and this year, here is a comparison of the 3.4 region. 

We went from cool neutral in 2025...

To blazing hot in 2026...

Every indication suggests that the El Nino will continue to strengthen during the peak of the hurricane season, and with the atmospheric response already being felt in a big way across the basin (more on that later), everything points to a historically strong Nino that dominates our hurricane season. 

I'd also note that in addition to the big El Nino we see above, the ribbon of cooler than normal Atlantic SSTs near the Equator also denotes a potential Atlantic Nina, which would only aid in suppressing Atlantic activity, especially in the MDR.

The progression of the Nino has been impressive to say the least, and we're going to have a potentially historic one right through the rest of the season. Not much else needs to be said. 

I'll get to some of the impacts on other factors in the sections below, but basically, a big Nino is already producing a hot Pacific hurricane season with much of the basin above climo for ACE so far with more to come. That rising motion creates hostile wind shear in the Atlantic, and also brings sinking air that suppresses activity. 

The result is what you'd expect. Much less activity during Nino years, and especially so during strong Nino conditions. Image below courtesy of Michael Lowry (he's worth a follow)

 

2. Wind Shear
Shear has dominated the basin so far this season, and it's not showing any sign of letting up on a structural level. You can sum up what we've seen so far in two images. The first is a current look at shear across the basin. 

If you want to see an El Nino inspired graveyard, look above. This is what atmospheric response looks like. There is a persistent ribbon of very high wind shear across the MDR. While there is less shear in the subtropics, this has been a relatively short lived feature as much of the basin has been overwhelmed with shear. In fact, it's been historically high. 

Alarm bells are ringing for shear in the Atlantic not just because shear has been historically high looking back as recently as July, but because even with the gradual decline from that position, we still see very high to extreme shear across the MDR. Note that even as we enter the peak of the season, shear is still well above normal in the Tropical Atlantic. In the Caribbean, shear has come down from off the charts levels, but again, that hasn't changed the overall conditions in that part of the basin. It's ugly, and it's not going away. 

This kind of shear renders even an active West African Monsoon and active wave train useless. Vigorous waves that roll off Africa have little chance of even staying organized as deep layer shear tears them apart. With this setup, I expect most waves to be obliterated long before they reach relatively more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic. This is a radical departure from recent seasons where even a hostile Tropical Atlantic couldn't stop waves from exploding in favorable conditions further west. 

Note however that in the subtropics, we do see shear lowering below climatology. That does fit warm ENSO, so I do anticipate some activity there even though it won't be much. 

I'm spending a lot of time on this because it is the defining environmental factor in a suppressed peak season, but even a few weeks out, guidance does not relent on shear in the MDR even as we approach the actual peak of the season. This further strengthens my belief that we will need to watch for short to medium term windows rather than an overall shift to a more favorable backloaded season structure. 

2. SSTs & OHC
In a season like this, the sea surface temperature anomalies and oceanic heat content numbers matter far less than usual, but they do matter. Even here, most data suggest that an underwhelming peak season is on tap. Recall the global SSTa image I posted above. That would suggest that the Atlantic is warm, but it actually isn't looking deeper. We've had some historically warm periods in recent years that led to big hurricanes. The best example being the Caribbean power keg that led to Melissa last season. That's not evident this year across virtually the entire basin. 

In an absolute sense, the Atlantic can sustain tropical activity, and the best chance of that is in the western Atlantic and Gulf where absolute SSTs are highest.

But look one layer deeper at the sea surface temperature anomalies and you will see two problems. The first is the MDR from the Tropical Atlantic all the way into the Caribbean being near to below normal. The second, and even bigger issue is the warmth in the basin being concentrated in the subtropics. That will yes, increase the chances of subtropical development, but in the MDR it will act to suppress activity with a whole lot of stability--an issue that has been a problem in the eastern Atlantic this entire decade.

Go another level deeper and you realize that the Atlantic isn't anywhere near warm enough for high volume, high end activity. 

This is the difference from the global mean. You can see the Nino clear as day, but on the Atlantic side? The MDR is substantially colder all the way into the Gulf! You see how this manifests itself as we look at OHC, which is in my mind a measure of what kind of higher end (major hurricane) activity a basin can sustain. It's cool to have 30C waters off the southeast coast, but is it actually deep enough to sustain multiple major hurricanes in a short period of time? The answer appears to be no. 

Not only is most of the warmth concentrated in the western Atlantic and subtropics...

There's actually much less of it compared to climatology in the usually warm areas. While a graphical average will show near average OHC in the MDR as you can see below, there are numerous pockets where OHC is analyzed to be below climo...

What this suggests to me is that if we do see a major hurricane or two, they will come north of the Antilles in a zone that usually means a recurve OTS. The caveat here is a short fuse, rapidly intensifying system in a window that gets maximized, but that's going to be hard to do in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf as we get to later in the season and advancing fronts bring wind shear to the Gulf and off the eastern U.S. coastline. The Gulf stands out with its average OHC. 

3. Stability, Dry Air, & SAL
SAL hasn't been that big a factor this season as its been overtaken by historically strong shear, and I won't spend much time on it. As we get into September and October SAL should decline substantially as climo favors. In fact, compared to other years, SAL isn't that bad over the Atlantic. 

The much bigger issue heading into the peak is stability forced by the SSTa orientation in the Atlantic basin, the possibility of an Atlantic Nina, and El Nino forcing sinking air into the basin. Stability and subsidence have been issues in the MDR, especially the eastern Tropical Atlantic, for years as you've heard me talk about...for years. This year, we're seeing this bleed into the Caribbean, where there's a near historic lack of instability that could spur development. 

In the Tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR, things are not much better. 

Anything that comes off the African coast is going to need help in the form of a favorable MJO and passage of a CCKW. Otherwise, it's going to be hard for anything to take off given the background state of historically hostile shear and mediocre thermodynamic conditions across the MDR. Along the east coast and Gulf, we've see more vertical instability than usual, but again, you need to get a wave or front or some kind of trigger to take advantage of that and develop a TC. To date, there have been exceedingly few opportunities. I do think later in the forecast period we could see the presence of our usual CAG setup break this some, but higher end activity looks unlikely if the background shear state remains and we don't see a significant uptick in SST/OHC levels. Once again, in the subtropics conditions look more favorable relative to the MDR with instability levels near normal. 

4. MJO & CCKW
The final factor I want to jump into is the one I mentioned above, and whether "well" timed MJO changes and CCKWs could enhance activity. I think they will be needed given how hostile the background state is. However, in a season where so much aligns against activity itself, this will only take you so far. In prior years, we had standing waves in favorable positions east of Africa that would promote active wave trains and rising motion that would offset the stability issues we've had in the basin. This year, through the peak of the season it looks like we won't get much help. 

There will be favorable periods, but it could be later in the peak aside from the kind of one off spurts in activity we've seen dominate the season so far. Everything suggests that what we've seen is what we will continue to get. 

Overall
To be sure, there will be activity. It's almost impossible to go through a peak season and not see some activity, but we're staring at what could be an extremely quiet peak with TCs developing based on whatever short term favorable window opens rather than because a longer window is open because the background state makes the basin conducive. That is an essential distinction, because it means that we're looking at very few periods where something can actually develop. Guidance is focused on a coming wave off Africa early next week, but even looking beyond that, there aren't a whole lot of other things being picked up by guidance. This is going to be a slow going peak, with activity more likely focused in the western Atlantic and subtropics, most likely after our usual peak of September 10. 

I think the most likely vectors for development will be ones that are climatologically favored for their period. Think upper level or baroclinic lows becoming tropical off a front in the subtropics or the open Atlantic, a later peak season CAG creating a window for something to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf (including the Bay of Campeche which has a topographical edge for TC genesis), and maybe a wave or two in the MDR.

I do think something becomes major, but it's just as likely IMO that nothing does. I think the fact that something develops probably means the environment is open for strengthening to a hurricane, but perhaps barely so. I could see 2-3 but hedged higher in case October opens the door for development off the east coast or out in the subtropics. 

I do not believe there will be a major hurricane or hurricane hit in the continental U.S. this season. Homebrew is the only chance for a TC strike this year. 

Hope you enjoyed reading. Thank you and happy tracking. 

 

[George BM]

Great write up, @WxWatcher007!...

No. I haven't read the whole thing yet. I just know it's great.