Severe Threat 3/26/2026

[pen_artist]

Enhanced risk introduced. For LOT CWA essentially the Eisenhower and south. Figured it might be worth a thread. 

[Radtechwxman]

Shouldn't this say 3/26/26 because it's tomorrow? 

[Chinook]

The convection-allowing models show some huge storms with high shear in IL/IN/OH. There seems to be a window of a few hours tomorrow before the cold air catches up with the whole thing. The model soundings have some indicators of higher CAPE with elevated convection going later into the night.

 

[cyclone77]

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

[CheeselandSkies]

26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

Yeah. I have to resist the temptation to chase based solely on that and the HRRR UH swaths, which are portrayed 50-100 miles north of any surface-based instability except maybe from north-central Indiana eastward.

[A-L-E-K]

31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

Sad but true

[Chicago Storm]

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day.

that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

[Radtechwxman]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day.

that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

Agreed. Not sure what SPC is seeing. That cf really surges south fast. 

[A-L-E-K]

Lake front just hit 

About a 15 degree difference between my apartment and the lakefront a quarter mile away

[Jackstraw]

Any Tor threat with this is if a surface low can spin up with a strong enough W/NW flow (or super cell outflows, unlikely but non zero). Hell (hehe) the current surface low looks more like a strung out wave. Theres a stout SW around 700mb racing east out of Kansas/Nebraska with a surface reflection but even with it there's no backing flow yet. SPC addresses this in their latest write up. Backside elevated hailers with this moist HOT lol, surface air being flat out jammed upwards into the very cold air aloft by the strong CAA a bigger deal. Might see hail once every couple years where I live, seen it twice in a little more than a week. Last one (similar to this setup) covered the ground completely. Me know likey hail 

[A-L-E-K]

Jelly

 

 

[buckeye]

50 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Any Tor threat with this is if a surface low can spin up with a strong enough W/NW flow (or super cell outflows, unlikely but non zero). Hell (hehe) the current surface low looks more like a strung out wave. Theres a stout SW around 700mb racing east out of Kansas/Nebraska with a surface reflection but even with it there's no backing flow yet. SPC addresses this in their latest write up. Backside elevated hailers with this moist HOT lol, surface air being flat out jammed upwards into the very cold air aloft by the strong CAA a bigger deal. Might see hail once every couple years where I live, seen it twice in a little more than a week. Last one (similar to this setup) covered the ground completely. Me know likey hail 

this past Sunday night I witnessed the biggest hail in my life.   Literally thought our windows were going to break.  I think 1.5" was what they recorded.   Hail? No thanks although I know it's very likely in this set up.

off topic but the last three months has featured some pretty crazy weather for us starting with that big dog in late January,  a widespread windstorm a few weeks back, the hottest day ever recorded in March a week ago, the hail storm last week, greatest temp drop in like 8 hours, (or something like that)...   definitely hasn't been boring.

[A-L-E-K]

Getting my cold rain on, good luck to those downstream 

[Jackstraw]

Phreakin' confirmed hailers lining up in IN/IL. Stay up there dammit  Tor watch for OH where lake breeze interaction has a better chance with already organized cells.

      

Mesoscale Discussion 0292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Areas affected...much of Ohio into western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262025Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Gradual convective development should support an increasing risk for supercells late this afternoon into this evening. Hail, damaging gusts are likely, with a couple of tornadoes possible. DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible and radar imagery showed an area of showers and weak convection gradually intensifying across southern Lower MI into northwestern OH. Located along and south of a front/lake breeze intersection, warming and moistening of the air mass across much of OH and PA this afternoon has resulted in weak to moderate buoyancy. Area VADs show very strong mid-level flow with elongated and veering hodographs. This will favor a mix of supercells and linear segments as the primary storm mode. Given the sufficient buoyancy and strong low/deep-layer shear, hail and severe gusts are likely. Tornadoes are also possible given ESRH of 300-400 m2/s2. Additional vertical vorticity near the lake breeze boundary could also support a locally greater tornado risk given favorable storm motions parallel to the lake shore. Recent CAM guidance and satellite trends regarding the ongoing shallow convection/showers over northwest OH and Lower MI show them gradually deepening as continued heating and mid-level ascent erode inhibition. This should support an increase in the severe risk late this afternoon into the evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41748249 42038144 42058046 41617949 41077934 40447956 39768013 39258145 39148316 39458405 39838433 40468450 41188445 41648424 41758388 41768347 41748249 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction Center 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A. [email protected] Page last modified: March 26, 2026	Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary	Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities

[cyclone77]

34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Getting my cold rain on, good luck to those downstream 

Had a few sprinkles here today.  SPC FTL with yesterday's day2 outlook for northwest IL/east IA.

[Floydbuster]

On and off thunder and rain in Northern Summit County, OH. Nothing too extreme yet. Cooling down for sure, though.

[Jackstraw]

Ima gonna go sit and wait on that cell near Frankfort IN. Its dangling pre frontal all alone and has that look. Its moving @ 60 right at me so shouldn't have to wait long lol

Edit: shoiuld have a helluva shelf cloud from velocity if its not too dark