Severe Threat 3/26/2026

[pen_artist]

Enhanced risk introduced. For LOT CWA essentially the Eisenhower and south. Figured it might be worth a thread. 

[Radtechwxman]

Shouldn't this say 3/26/26 because it's tomorrow? 

[Chinook]

The convection-allowing models show some huge storms with high shear in IL/IN/OH. There seems to be a window of a few hours tomorrow before the cold air catches up with the whole thing. The model soundings have some indicators of higher CAPE with elevated convection going later into the night.

 

[cyclone77]

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

[CheeselandSkies]

26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

Yeah. I have to resist the temptation to chase based solely on that and the HRRR UH swaths, which are portrayed 50-100 miles north of any surface-based instability except maybe from north-central Indiana eastward.

[A-L-E-K]

31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

Sad but true

[Chicago Storm]

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day.

that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

[Radtechwxman]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day.

that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

Agreed. Not sure what SPC is seeing. That cf really surges south fast. 

[A-L-E-K]

Lake front just hit 

About a 15 degree difference between my apartment and the lakefront a quarter mile away

[Jackstraw]

Any Tor threat with this is if a surface low can spin up with a strong enough W/NW flow (or super cell outflows, unlikely but non zero). Hell (hehe) the current surface low looks more like a strung out wave. Theres a stout SW around 700mb racing east out of Kansas/Nebraska with a surface reflection but even with it there's no backing flow yet. SPC addresses this in their latest write up. Backside elevated hailers with this moist HOT lol, surface air being flat out jammed upwards into the very cold air aloft by the strong CAA a bigger deal. Might see hail once every couple years where I live, seen it twice in a little more than a week. Last one (similar to this setup) covered the ground completely. Me know likey hail 

[A-L-E-K]

Jelly

 

 

[buckeye]

50 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Any Tor threat with this is if a surface low can spin up with a strong enough W/NW flow (or super cell outflows, unlikely but non zero). Hell (hehe) the current surface low looks more like a strung out wave. Theres a stout SW around 700mb racing east out of Kansas/Nebraska with a surface reflection but even with it there's no backing flow yet. SPC addresses this in their latest write up. Backside elevated hailers with this moist HOT lol, surface air being flat out jammed upwards into the very cold air aloft by the strong CAA a bigger deal. Might see hail once every couple years where I live, seen it twice in a little more than a week. Last one (similar to this setup) covered the ground completely. Me know likey hail 

this past Sunday night I witnessed the biggest hail in my life.   Literally thought our windows were going to break.  I think 1.5" was what they recorded.   Hail? No thanks although I know it's very likely in this set up.

off topic but the last three months has featured some pretty crazy weather for us starting with that big dog in late January,  a widespread windstorm a few weeks back, the hottest day ever recorded in March a week ago, the hail storm last week, greatest temp drop in like 8 hours, (or something like that)...   definitely hasn't been boring.

[A-L-E-K]

Getting my cold rain on, good luck to those downstream