Severe Threat 3/26/2026

[pen_artist]

Enhanced risk introduced. For LOT CWA essentially the Eisenhower and south. Figured it might be worth a thread. 

[Radtechwxman]

Shouldn't this say 3/26/26 because it's tomorrow? 

[Chinook]

The convection-allowing models show some huge storms with high shear in IL/IN/OH. There seems to be a window of a few hours tomorrow before the cold air catches up with the whole thing. The model soundings have some indicators of higher CAPE with elevated convection going later into the night.

 

[cyclone77]

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

[CheeselandSkies]

26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

Yeah. I have to resist the temptation to chase based solely on that and the HRRR UH swaths, which are portrayed 50-100 miles north of any surface-based instability except maybe from north-central Indiana eastward.

[A-L-E-K]

31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC risk needs to be shaved off over northwest IL and eastern IA.  Will be a whiff east/southeast.

Sad but true

[Chicago Storm]

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day.

that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

[Radtechwxman]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day.

that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

Agreed. Not sure what SPC is seeing. That cf really surges south fast. 

[A-L-E-K]

Lake front just hit 

About a 15 degree difference between my apartment and the lakefront a quarter mile away