Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[weathafella]

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

[cleetussnow]

57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

Which was a record Nino…signs of things to come.  Bad things.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking.

1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.

[Ginx snewx]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking.

1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.

What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall. 

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[stadiumwave]

CANSIPS OCTOBER UPDATE

DEC

JAN

 

FEB

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward.

For instance, it's trying to do this for December.

But I think we end up with something like this:

[forkyfork]

yeah. warm and rainy

[forkyfork]

ray-nee

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward.

For instance, it's trying to do this for December.

But I think we end up with something like this:

Yeah we are going to lose December. The question is what happens after that.

[Prismshine Productions]

CANSIPS OCTOBER UPDATE
DEC



JAN



 
FEB



 
 

+1.5
+1.5
+1
All three months +QPF...

Honestly for the interior Rt.2 N that isn't a terrible look

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.

And it’s warm already 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And it’s warm already 

I feel like the trend on seasonal guidance is at least as, if not more important than the absolute data and CANSIPS keeps trending warmer and further south with that ridge...this is why February is now no longer above average precip for us, but if you look back at the 9/1 and especially 8/1 run, precip was way above average.

[Prismshine Productions]

Prediction: +2-+3.5° AN, 50-75% snowfall

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

I made this call back on May 4th and it still feels comfortable

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I made this call back on May 4th and it still feels comfortable

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Primshineweather.com?

[Cobalt]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

yeah. warm and rainy

I was really thinking we were in for a cold and snowy winter looking at all of the analogs for east based super el ninos. This helped reign in my expectations. thank you

[512high]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I was really thinking we were in for a cold and snowy winter looking at all of the analogs for east based super el ninos. This helped reign in my expectations. thank you

Lol, not sure if I can afford diesel for equipment this winter! But the show must go on.........

[Torch Tiger]

33 minutes ago, 512high said:

Lol, not sure if I can afford diesel for equipment this winter! But the show must go on.........

Yeah, forget it