Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[Ginx snewx]

Grok based on the ECMWF seasonal 

[dendrite]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.

There’s something wrong with a lot of their 1981-2010 2m climo during the winter months around the Great Lakes. Almost like they’re using Lake Superior water temps in the grids so that there’s always a large, permanent negative 2m anomaly there.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/

 

Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Proceed with EXTREME caution using the Cansips

 

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Output looks okay on satelitewx.

I bet it'll be possible to take a pleasant hike in short sleeves and shorts along the hudson bay on christmas.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

There’s something wrong with a lot of their 1981-2010 2m climo during the winter months around the Great Lakes. Almost like they’re using Lake Superior water temps in the grids so that there’s always a large, permanent negative 2m anomaly there.

Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/

 

Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational. 

Thanks!

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F. 

Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?

[Brewbeer]

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

I choose the black tail.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/severeweathereu/status/2095419607100109295?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?

That's what the model predicted. I'm not talking about the Great Lakes. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Ryan got out his prediction

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ryan got out his prediction

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Looks like something an Accuweather forum member made while on acid. 

[CoastalWx]

10 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ryan got out his prediction

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

Social media has fostered an enormous proclivity for the development of these highly superficial and useless maps in the place of in-depth analysis.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

I've never watched his severe coverage videos so I have no opinion on them. From what I've heard they're pretty great but I've seen a few of his YouTube videos and shorts that pop up when I'm browsing and they are not particularly good. Not sure if he is a met or not but some of what he says doesn't make sense or is inaccurate. Can't remember the exact details of some instances off the top of my head b/c they were just too cringe worthy.   

[weatherwiz]

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter. 

Given the pace of the tropical season, there isn't much to catch up on.  Three blogs, though the last two are very deep.

[CoastalWx]

Those posts in the Sept thread probably should be on here lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know some people will say well it will just supercharge whatever we had for a strong or super Niño. I’m not sure you can apply that linear logic.

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it is as simple as that, who knows. But it’s such a huge expanse of warm water. Just a little hesitant in applying that thinking.

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad.

I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad.

I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

Well said. 

And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Well said. 

And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.

I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.