Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[Ginx snewx]

Grok based on the ECMWF seasonal 

[dendrite]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.

There’s something wrong with a lot of their 1981-2010 2m climo during the winter months around the Great Lakes. Almost like they’re using Lake Superior water temps in the grids so that there’s always a large, permanent negative 2m anomaly there.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/

 

Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Proceed with EXTREME caution using the Cansips

 

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Output looks okay on satelitewx.

I bet it'll be possible to take a pleasant hike in short sleeves and shorts along the hudson bay on christmas.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

There’s something wrong with a lot of their 1981-2010 2m climo during the winter months around the Great Lakes. Almost like they’re using Lake Superior water temps in the grids so that there’s always a large, permanent negative 2m anomaly there.

Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/

 

Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational. 

Thanks!

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F. 

Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?

[Brewbeer]

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

I choose the black tail.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/severeweathereu/status/2095419607100109295?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?

That's what the model predicted. I'm not talking about the Great Lakes. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Ryan got out his prediction

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ryan got out his prediction

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Looks like something an Accuweather forum member made while on acid. 

[CoastalWx]

10 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ryan got out his prediction

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

Social media has fostered an enormous proclivity for the development of these highly superficial and useless maps in the place of in-depth analysis.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

I've never watched his severe coverage videos so I have no opinion on them. From what I've heard they're pretty great but I've seen a few of his YouTube videos and shorts that pop up when I'm browsing and they are not particularly good. Not sure if he is a met or not but some of what he says doesn't make sense or is inaccurate. Can't remember the exact details of some instances off the top of my head b/c they were just too cringe worthy.   

[weatherwiz]

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter. 

Given the pace of the tropical season, there isn't much to catch up on.  Three blogs, though the last two are very deep.

[CoastalWx]

Those posts in the Sept thread probably should be on here lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know some people will say well it will just supercharge whatever we had for a strong or super Niño. I’m not sure you can apply that linear logic.

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it is as simple as that, who knows. But it’s such a huge expanse of warm water. Just a little hesitant in applying that thinking.

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad.

I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.