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Winter 2026-2027 Speculation


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13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Direct Weathers preliminary winter outlook ( yes its too early )

 

 

https://youtu.be/IZqYlxG7C9U?is=3cdS4C1yUk_g8R87

I don't understand on how he can can be so confident in below average temps throughout the NE in the most intense El Nino on record when there is no incidence of the NE being below average in an intense El Nino in recorded history. He said that he would explain early on, but never really did....just offered some vague rhetoric concerning +PNA inducing backdoor arctic shots. While arctic infiltration from the north is the most efficient avenue for arctic delivery in the NE, which was evident in the Feb 2016 outbreak, it is highly unlikely to be prevalent enough to be reflected in the seasonal mean. 

Above average snowfall virtually everywhere east of the apps?? I could see it for the mid atl, but not all throughout the NE....none of the intense events have pulled that off.

He seems to be going with a 1957/1965 outcome, which is near average around here, but I think the magnitude of ENSO and the solar cycle make that a tough sell this year.

 

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Probably off to a slow start and not expecting a very good retention year given the high probability of warmer temp anomalies, but I think we have our chances.  And there could be a couple of big boys that help out with the snowfall anomolies, even in a overall hostile regime.   That's my early take.  

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8 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Probably off to a slow start and not expecting a very good retention year given the high probability of warmer temp anomalies, but I think we have our chances.  And there could be a couple of big boys that help out with the snowfall anomolies, even in a overall hostile regime.   That's my early take.  

I'm glad I still have Pit2.  I think Pit1 is going to be toast following last year's epicosity.

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On 8/6/2026 at 9:55 PM, powderfreak said:

No thanks. 

Getting very nervous about this winter being a 2015-2016 like bust in vermont ski country. Same atmospheric patterns in place, in an even warmer background climate. Yikes.

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32 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Getting very nervous about this winter being a 2015-2016 like bust in vermont ski country. Same atmospheric patterns in place, in an even warmer background climate. Yikes.

I’m not worried about 2015-16 because that was something so absurd and record breaking that I think even that pattern repeated again would be snowier.

Maybe that’s a poor assumption on my part but at least on Mount Mansfield where most of my knowledge is rooted in, I take some comfort in that even a standard deviation on the bad side of normal is still a lot snowier than 15-16.

I do think there’s definitely concern about a strong El Niño though.  But there’s a fine line in there where our normals are cold enough to snow decently even with a +4 or +5 winter month (could also be heavy snows at elevation, lackluster in valleys)… but it’s once it gets to +7 or +8 that we often tip the scale to real bad at all elevations.

We’ve also seen the El Ninos that have had below normal snow and snowpack down where people live but 2,000+ feet is buried in multiple marginal events.

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't disagree it could suck on the coast, but I highly doubt the snow anomalies would just stop at the Catskills if that were the case. It's a weird distribution, but we know these maps are beer anyways. That guy is terrible.

Disappointed you gave it any critical thinking.

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