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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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29 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

"There's more than anecdotal evidence..."  Then proceeds to provide only an anecdote. :P

 

26 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I should have put an also somewhere in there, but writing fast, at work, mutlitasking.

The family is anecdotal evidence.  But there is non-anecdotal data that suggests the anecdotal data, is not anecdotal.

Is that better? :lol:

Great example of funny, yet respectable, responses.

We should be able to call each other out on our bullshit without dismissing data outright.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Great example of funny, yet respectable, responses.

We should be able to call each other out on our bullshit without dismissing data outright.

I was respectable…I said believe the BS if you want. Thats respectable. I have nothing against anybody here. All good. 
 

Came home and just turned on the AC lol…place was hot and stuffy. 

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was respectable…I said believe the BS if you want. Thats respectable. I have nothing against anybody here. All good. 
 

Came home and just turned on the AC lol…place was hot and stuffy. 

Honestly that one wasn’t directed to you or our exchanges.  It felt like good natured banter.

Jealous of the warmth… 54F here.  Mild but feels dreary.

 

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I can't find climate-specific data regarding the accuracy of modeled -NAO(+NAO) index values, at different time ranges...  Then considering seasons? no chance.

Good luck trying to find what no one has apparently ever sicced a red-eyed grad student on because it doesn't apparently exist.  That said, I'm personally certain that -NAOs modeled beyond D7 have a deplorably bad verification score, where as ...those scheduled to manifest between D3 and 6 ( mid range) are the ones that most often materialize.  

This -NAO in the guidance since last week is a nice candidate to test Charlie Browning with that particular index, because it's been out there in the extended index prog a lot longer than 7 days.  Thing is... I wouldn't be shocked if there is at least some sort of -NAO observed down wind and time of this warm anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent.  That's a correlation actually that I have personally seen.  It doesn't say anything to magnitude or west or eastern limb.   But warms up --> cools down/-NAO is progression.

The 12z Euro is attempting to abandon the -NAO by D8/9 now ...and it reminds of the fragility in modeling that index is all.  It could go either way.  

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully we kill some plants down there with the freeze next week

It’s amazing how some folks like to try and kill people enjoying weather they love. It sucks to be on the wrong side of the front . I get that. But you and Scoots just trying to shit on folks that got lucky 

https://imgur.com/a/WH4har0#bKvnrZu

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s amazing how some folks like to try and kill people enjoying weather they love. It sucks to be on the wrong side of the front . I get that. But you and Scoots just trying to shit on folks that got lucky 

https://imgur.com/a/WH4har0#bKvnrZu

I hit 73F today. It was nice. But what does that have to do with next week?

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