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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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Why are you buckin' for that to be the case, Scott.  LOL

I dunno...  I've seen this before in spring when the season's on the death bed.  Like the "lucid interval" when out of nowhere the patient bounces back, talkative and smiling sending nurses and relatives scrambling but it ends up fake and they're dead in a couple hours anyway.

Heh..just wanted to make a disturbing metaphor.  No but I have seen this in spring where there's a regression, and it tends also happen during a warmer outlook, too.  But the warm up comes anyway.   interesting.  We'll see which way this one goes

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On 3/24/2026 at 7:24 AM, UnitedWx said:

We actually have quite a few patches greening quickly in our lawn. Lets get some warmth now to help them along. Also... allergies are already nearing off the charts 

Male aspens are already spreading pollen up here, and a couple of 60s days will pop the flowers on red & silver maples.  Looks like the pack (10" this morning) will survive into April, thanks to the cold weekend.  Only 9 of our 27 winters have failed to reach April, 10 if I count 2024 as we were down to a trace just pre-equinox.  I don't count it as we had 40.9" after the equinox, most spring snow of my 53 winters in Maine.

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up.

Seems they're fighting seasonal change, huh

I've seen something like this every spring around this time frankly going back years.  It would be an interesting discussion to have with the modelers at NCEP...but it seems as though their physics are not integrating for steadily increasing heat input into the system.  They just take whatever they see in the initialization, and then out in time they end up too cold  

So by the time we get to mid April the sun is like mid August.  Hot as hell on sunny days.  Sometime between now and 2.5 weeks .. I mean give it up.  Only once or twice do I recall an air mass cold enough to offset that, way back prior to 2000 ... and these patterns in the current model depictions ain't it.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems they're fighting seasonal change, huh

I've seen something like this every spring around this time frankly going back years.  It would be an interesting discussion to have with the modelers at NCEP...but it seems as though their physics are not integrating for steadily increasing heat input into the system.  They just take whatever they see in the initialization, and then out in time they end up too cold  

So by the time we get to mid April the sun is like mid August.  Hot as hell on sunny days.  Sometime between now and 2.5 weeks .. I mean give it up.  Only once or twice do I recall an air mass cold enough to offset that, way back prior to 2000 ... and these patterns in the current model depictions ain't it.

I told him the other day that the NAO has been verifying more positive than those d14 mean progs since mid Feb. Looks like the AO has since 3/1 too.

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