3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[Malacka11]

Gfs slightly better?

[McHenrySnow]

6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Gfs slightly better?

Yup. At least for McHenry/Kane and northwest. The city not as much. Baby steps. 

[Imneversatisfied]

Im almost always lurking on the forum,just don't post much. Looks to me like 18z GFS and NAM are pretty similar with a SE shift. 

[DocATL]

 
Not really. 

Looks reasonable. I’ll say 1.3” for Naperville.


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[cmillzz]

I’ll go 2” for ORD. Was gonna go with DAB earlier, but that seems unrealistic now that I think about it.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Current thinking from MPX

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

has forced squall line/qlcs, with damaging winds and embedded tors written all over it.

DVN office...

[Tim from Springfield, IL]

I haven't check to see if it's been shared here yet, but on the warm side of this system there is already an SPC Day 3 ENH risk in this sub for SW IN up to Indy, and SE IL, with slight for much of IL up to lower MI.

Storm Prediction Center Mar 13, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

I am actually going to go on a limb and predict that these two TV weather-related coverage events occur Sunday night:

1. At least one CBS affiliate in the Slight or Enhanced area bumps the entire CBS NCAA Men's Selection Show for wall-to-wall weather; and
2. At least one ABC affiliate in the risk area bumps part or even all of the Oscars Sunday night for wall-to-wall weather and warnings coverage.

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Looks reasonable. I’ll say 1.3” for Naperville.


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Sounds like 1.3" too much for your house. 

[McHenrySnow]

10 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield, IL said:

I haven't check to see if it's been shared here yet, but on the warm side of this system there is already an SPC Day 3 ENH risk in this sub for SW IN up to Indy, and SE IL, with slight for much of IL up to lower MI.

Storm Prediction Center Mar 13, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

I am actually going to go on a limb and predict that these two TV weather-related coverage events occur Sunday night:

1. At least one CBS affiliate in the Slight or Enhanced area bumps the entire CBS NCAA Men's Selection Show for wall-to-wall weather; and
2. At least one ABC affiliate in the risk area bumps part or even all of the Oscars Sunday night for wall-to-wall weather and warnings coverage.

3. If 1 or 2 happens, viewers will go apeshit on Facebook. 

[DocATL]

Sounds like 1.3" too much for your house. 

I initially was going to type 0.7, you caught me in a moment of weakness.


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[cutlew]

I wish there were more MN posters. I can only post so much on the weekdays with job and parenting duties. 
 
NAM has me nervous but I’m chalking it up to NAM doing NAM things. 8-24” is a comfortable range at this juncture. 

Did you like the HRRR this afternoon bringing the SLP up into Minnesota

[Imneversatisfied]

Here's Michigan Storm Chasers ice forecast map for this weekend vs last years storm forecast.

[mnchaserguy]

Hrrr coming back south a bit. Making me cautiously optimistic that I might actually end up in the bullseye for MSP on this one.


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[frostfern]

NW trend took me out of the ice and put me in the severe risk.  Most likely elevated storms over a cold surface layer yet again.  Don’t need any more heavy rain at the moment.

Pre-greenup season really amplifies the effects of precip anomalies.  Too dry you get fires, too wet you get floods.

[McHenrySnow]

Huge difference in E IA between NAM and 3K. 

[RogueWaves]

5.5" today. May be bigger than this big dog. Waiting for GRR's overnight updates but from the APX latest for Gladwin east of me, another wet 3-5" seems reasonable unless things really shift south.

[cmillzz]

ICON almost looks like a nonevent lol. Parts of Wisconsin still get slammed, but it's without a doubt weaker and north.

[Chicago Storm]

ICON almost looks like a nonevent lol. Parts of Wisconsin still get slammed, but it's without a doubt weaker and north.

not really north.

you get that illusion due to the changes in the precip field, which is caused by different interactions aloft.

[cmillzz]

17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

not really north.

you get that illusion due to the changes in the precip field, which is caused by different interactions aloft.

Idk, just took a quick glance and the system itself seems ever so slightly north.

[ILSNOW]

Gem ice

 

[RemoteSenses]

Anyone not believing this is going further and further NE - yall are cray crazy. No hope left here.

[RemoteSenses]

Literally not a single model expect the recent NAM moving it SE.

I’m being realistic. If you’re south of mid Wisconsin or Mid - Michigan you can enjoy a rain storm.


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[Chicago Storm]

3 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Anyone not believing this is going further and further NE - yall are cray crazy. No hope left here.

 

1 minute ago, RemoteSenses said:

Literally not a single model expect the recent NAM moving it SE.

I’m being realistic. If you’re south of mid Wisconsin or Mid - Michigan you can enjoy a rain storm.


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doc, did you switch accounts?

[RemoteSenses]

Here's Michigan Storm Chasers ice forecast map for this weekend vs last years storm forecast.

God if this verifies…with the insane winds.

I’m still recovering from that at work.

[RemoteSenses]

doc, did you switch accounts?

Enjoy your wishcasting brother. I respect the hope you’re holding onto.

[Chicago Storm]

6 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Enjoy your wishcasting brother. I respect the hope you’re holding onto.

i'm hoping for something?

[RemoteSenses]

doc, did you switch accounts?

I have no idea what this means brother.

[Radtechwxman]

18 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Literally not a single model expect the recent NAM moving it SE.

I’m being realistic. If you’re south of mid Wisconsin or Mid - Michigan you can enjoy a rain storm.


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You clearly don't understand how strong cold air advection works especially behind a very powerful sfc low. Will there be massive snow totals down here? No. But there will be snow and it won't take much to get blizzard conditions. A strong cf is going to surge east and as the upper dynamics swing overhead you will get a deformation band stretching far south behind the low.