3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[Malacka11]

Gfs slightly better?

[McHenrySnow]

6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Gfs slightly better?

Yup. At least for McHenry/Kane and northwest. The city not as much. Baby steps. 

[Imneversatisfied]

Im almost always lurking on the forum,just don't post much. Looks to me like 18z GFS and NAM are pretty similar with a SE shift. 

[DocATL]

 
Not really. 

Looks reasonable. I’ll say 1.3” for Naperville.


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[cmillzz]

I’ll go 2” for ORD. Was gonna go with DAB earlier, but that seems unrealistic now that I think about it.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Current thinking from MPX

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

has forced squall line/qlcs, with damaging winds and embedded tors written all over it.

DVN office...

[Tim from Springfield, IL]

I haven't check to see if it's been shared here yet, but on the warm side of this system there is already an SPC Day 3 ENH risk in this sub for SW IN up to Indy, and SE IL, with slight for much of IL up to lower MI.

Storm Prediction Center Mar 13, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

I am actually going to go on a limb and predict that these two TV weather-related coverage events occur Sunday night:

1. At least one CBS affiliate in the Slight or Enhanced area bumps the entire CBS NCAA Men's Selection Show for wall-to-wall weather; and
2. At least one ABC affiliate in the risk area bumps part or even all of the Oscars Sunday night for wall-to-wall weather and warnings coverage.

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Looks reasonable. I’ll say 1.3” for Naperville.


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Sounds like 1.3" too much for your house. 

[McHenrySnow]

10 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield, IL said:

I haven't check to see if it's been shared here yet, but on the warm side of this system there is already an SPC Day 3 ENH risk in this sub for SW IN up to Indy, and SE IL, with slight for much of IL up to lower MI.

Storm Prediction Center Mar 13, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

I am actually going to go on a limb and predict that these two TV weather-related coverage events occur Sunday night:

1. At least one CBS affiliate in the Slight or Enhanced area bumps the entire CBS NCAA Men's Selection Show for wall-to-wall weather; and
2. At least one ABC affiliate in the risk area bumps part or even all of the Oscars Sunday night for wall-to-wall weather and warnings coverage.

3. If 1 or 2 happens, viewers will go apeshit on Facebook. 

[DocATL]

Sounds like 1.3" too much for your house. 

I initially was going to type 0.7, you caught me in a moment of weakness.


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[cutlew]

I wish there were more MN posters. I can only post so much on the weekdays with job and parenting duties. 
 
NAM has me nervous but I’m chalking it up to NAM doing NAM things. 8-24” is a comfortable range at this juncture. 

Did you like the HRRR this afternoon bringing the SLP up into Minnesota