3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[sbnwx85]

Lake response looks impressive. I think we can manage at least a Wind Advisory/WWA Advisory combo in N IN/SW MI. Maybe a WSW if things go well. 

[Baum]

11 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Either trends or struggling models but just feels like rooting for the backside of this thing is precarious. The smarter folks eluded to the difficulty in models forecasting this system. Lots of moving pieces as Chicago Storm said. Anyhow, back to my run to run trolling.

A common theme in our Climo in spring is for heavy snow events to our north with pretty nuisance 1-3” backside defo hits. As I alluded to how we’ll end up with normal totals a week ago.  That’s essentially what’s on the table and has been. Euro runs were always a bit of an outlier but it looks like it’s falling in line. Let’s hope we’re still not doing this in May.

[cmillzz]

Question is how much further north this thing can trend, because we may not be done yet…

[DocATL]

A common theme in our Climo in spring is for heavy snow events to our north with pretty nuisance 1-3” backside defo hits. As I alluded to how we’ll end up with normal totals a week ago.  That’s essentially what’s on the table and has been. Euro runs were always a bit of an outlier but it looks like it’s falling in line. Let’s hope we’re still not doing this in May.

Amen brother


.

[Cary67]

39 minutes ago, Baum said:

Clearly a dramatic change on the 18Z Euro

N.IL snow totals

[Baum]

12 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Question is how much further north this thing can trend, because we may not be done yet…

Winnipeg

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Either trends or struggling models but just feels like rooting for the backside of this thing is precarious. The smarter folks eluded to the difficulty in models forecasting this system. Lots of moving pieces as Chicago Storm said. Anyhow, back to my run to run trolling.

I don't think I've ever seen you root for snow in N IL. 

[DocATL]

I don't think I've ever seen you root for snow in N IL. 

I’m just a neighborhood curmudgeon

[Jebman]

I was getting my daily weather readings and just noticed west central Wisc where my Uncle lives may get shellacked just before my Mar 16 birthday. Could be west central MI might get well over two feet.

Congrats. Hope it overperforms BIG!

[McHenrySnow]

[cmillzz]

AI GFS took a huge jump north and is more in line with the OP now. ICON and GEM are way north too.

[RCNYILWX]

From a pattern recognition/climo perspective, it's very difficult to get warning level snowfall into the heart of the Chicago metro with wraparound from a surface low that initially tracks so far NW. The various solutions that have shown a big hit demonstrate that those outcomes are certainly plausible. However, with needing to get the multiple moving parts right, there's plenty of failure modes (as shown by the solutions that keep the big snow out of the metro), and reason to be skeptical locally.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[Brian D]

3.4" at midnight so far for me. Not really a blizzard yet. Unless the wind kicks up a couple notches, this is just a good ol fashioned winter stm. 

[RemoteSenses]

Was fun to track one last major storm. But alas, I have been beat to hell again. 75 mile difference between huge snowfall versus all rain.

Being on warm weather. I’m over this shit.

[RemoteSenses]

Once again this will be a major storm for the UP. Those poor Yoopers had green grass this time last year. Guess mother nature is making up for it in a big way.

[Jackstraw]

Waiting on a reply from my new dog sitter. I'm looking at hotels up around the Rhinelander area. GFS puking out 60 inches lmao. Most snow I ever experienced was in March just outside of Denver in 2014. 26inches in 24hrs.

I'm 50/50 just to go see this insanity lmao.

[RemoteSenses]

Another 100 mile shift to the NW. This might end up in Canada

[A-L-E-K]

8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

From a pattern recognition/climo perspective, it's very difficult to get warning level snowfall into the heart of the Chicago metro with wraparound from a surface low that initially tracks so far NW. The various solutions that have shown a big hit demonstrate that those outcomes are certainly plausible. However, with needing to get the multiple moving parts right, there's plenty of failure modes (as shown by the solutions that keep the big snow out of the metro), and reason to be skeptical locally.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk
 

60+ on sunday with a wraparound DAB it is folks

[Baum]

TBH….if it really isn’t a Big Dog prefer nothing this time of year. (Snow wise).The cold will be bad enough so you can keep your wind whipped inch 

[A-L-E-K]

i always want the qpf

[cyclone77]

On 3/12/2026 at 7:14 AM, cyclone77 said:

Looking good for you guys north and east.  Any delay in the bombing will likely bump us out too far west, which will likely happen lol.

Yep.

[SchaumburgStormer]

43 minutes ago, Baum said:

TBH….it really is a Big Dog or prefer nothing this time of year. The cold will be bad enough so you can keep your wind whipped inch 

Indeed. Seems I care WAYYYY less about snow after we get that first hit of spring 

[Brian D]

6.6" imby. Another decent hit in the area, with some totals over 12".

[Baum]

58 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

60+ on sunday with a wraparound DAB it is folks

   On 3/4/2026 at 4:01 PM,  Baum said:

You can book 2-3” on grass only events at minimum post frontal in late March and April alone. Though, you might not know it happened. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro continues to trend in the wrong direction for Iowa.  At this point it's non-event except for wind.  It barely has a flake of snow falling anywhere in the state.  I'm expecting the GFS to cave soon.

[Baum]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro continues to trend in the wrong direction for Iowa.  At this point it's non-event except for wind.  It barely has a flake of snow falling anywhere in the state.  I'm expecting the GFS to cave soon.

[hawkeye_wx]

Oddly, I just read the DVN discussion and it talks about a winter storm watch for heavy deformation zone snow, with zero mention of the bone-dry Euro.  Other non-GFS models are also trending toward the Euro, so I think DVN will have to start walking back the snow talk.

[sbnwx85]

I still like where I sit with the 6z euro. It is a tough look for Iowa but keeps NE IL, NW IN and SW MI in the game for a few inches of wind driven snow. I’ll be the lone positive vibe. Going to be a fun system. Slight risk of severe weather on Sunday followed by potentially near-blizzard conditions on Monday. Let’s go!

[McHenrySnow]

33 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Oddly, I just read the DVN discussion and it talks about a winter storm watch for heavy deformation zone snow, with zero mention of the bone-dry Euro.  Other non-GFS models are also trending toward the Euro, so I think DVN will have to start walking back the snow talk.

DVN has issued a Watch for most, if not all, of its area it appears. Maybe not the very southern tier. 

[McHenrySnow]

Can you share the 6z Euro?