3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[sbnwx85]

Lake response looks impressive. I think we can manage at least a Wind Advisory/WWA Advisory combo in N IN/SW MI. Maybe a WSW if things go well. 

[Baum]

11 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Either trends or struggling models but just feels like rooting for the backside of this thing is precarious. The smarter folks eluded to the difficulty in models forecasting this system. Lots of moving pieces as Chicago Storm said. Anyhow, back to my run to run trolling.

A common theme in our Climo in spring is for heavy snow events to our north with pretty nuisance 1-3” backside defo hits. As I alluded to how we’ll end up with normal totals a week ago.  That’s essentially what’s on the table and has been. Euro runs were always a bit of an outlier but it looks like it’s falling in line. Let’s hope we’re still not doing this in May.

[cmillzz]

Question is how much further north this thing can trend, because we may not be done yet…

[DocATL]

A common theme in our Climo in spring is for heavy snow events to our north with pretty nuisance 1-3” backside defo hits. As I alluded to how we’ll end up with normal totals a week ago.  That’s essentially what’s on the table and has been. Euro runs were always a bit of an outlier but it looks like it’s falling in line. Let’s hope we’re still not doing this in May.

Amen brother


.

[Cary67]

39 minutes ago, Baum said:

Clearly a dramatic change on the 18Z Euro

N.IL snow totals

[Baum]

12 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Question is how much further north this thing can trend, because we may not be done yet…

Winnipeg

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Either trends or struggling models but just feels like rooting for the backside of this thing is precarious. The smarter folks eluded to the difficulty in models forecasting this system. Lots of moving pieces as Chicago Storm said. Anyhow, back to my run to run trolling.

I don't think I've ever seen you root for snow in N IL. 

[DocATL]

I don't think I've ever seen you root for snow in N IL. 

I’m just a neighborhood curmudgeon

[Jebman]

I was getting my daily weather readings and just noticed west central Wisc where my Uncle lives may get shellacked just before my Mar 16 birthday. Could be west central MI might get well over two feet.

Congrats. Hope it overperforms BIG!

[McHenrySnow]

[cmillzz]

AI GFS took a huge jump north and is more in line with the OP now. ICON and GEM are way north too.

[RCNYILWX]

From a pattern recognition/climo perspective, it's very difficult to get warning level snowfall into the heart of the Chicago metro with wraparound from a surface low that initially tracks so far NW. The various solutions that have shown a big hit demonstrate that those outcomes are certainly plausible. However, with needing to get the multiple moving parts right, there's plenty of failure modes (as shown by the solutions that keep the big snow out of the metro), and reason to be skeptical locally.

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[Brian D]

3.4" at midnight so far for me. Not really a blizzard yet. Unless the wind kicks up a couple notches, this is just a good ol fashioned winter stm.