Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

What the hell is going on? 

I happened. I got frustrated because we just finished a top 10 warmest April ever but reading this thread you'd think it was the opposite. Saturday was 8-10 degrees below normal...fine, but there were quite a few days in April that were 20-25 degrees above normal. We've had both warm and cold but the warm has been WAY more dramatic, enough so that it resulted in a well AN month.

Also, that is what defines this time of year. This is not abnormal weather. 

I'm sorry that I lost my wits. I apologize to all of you. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Also, I need to remember that a lot of you live in areas that are notably cooler than here in Lanco. Your chilly 50 degree day might be a very pleasant 60 down here in the sun. 60 in early May feels a lot different than 60 in February. I can tell you that I was sweating profusely on Saturday.  

[ChescoWx]

Many lower spots reached the 30's this morning with the Warwick DEOS the chilliest at 30.9 degrees. We warm up nicely today to near normal highs around 70 today. We warm to close to 80 degrees tomorrow before we start another cooling trend. Shower chances also look to increase Wednesday into Thursday before we clear up on Friday. Below normal temperatures look likely from Thursday through the weekend.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of only 46 here.  A couple of nice days ahead before the rain moves in.  Not sure what all the fuss is about in here.  April in the northeast almost always means roller coaster temps.  Sometimes that leads to a cold month, sometimes warm, but either way it's an up and down adventure.  As @Itstrainingtime noted, we just came off a very warm April, so let's have some perspective.  I also don't mind the sports banter sprinkled in, especially when it's done in passing in the midst of weather talk.  No biggie at all, and if anything adds some excitement to the board during down times.  I'm not a fan of having another banter thread and I'm not sure it's really worked out.  In any case, get outside and touch some grass.  Lord knows the May sun can make even a chilly day feel good.  Onward.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Also, I need to remember that a lot of you live in areas that are notably cooler than here in Lanco. Your chilly 50 degree day might be a very pleasant 60 down here in the sun. 60 in early May feels a lot different than 60 in February. I can tell you that I was sweating profusely on Saturday.  

This is true. It's much cooler in Tamaqua, then adding in that a lot of my work puts me in Hazleton, which is even colder than Tamaqua, and you can see my frustration. Also, a malfunctioning thyroid makes me even more cold intolerant, and there you have it. A perfect recipe for complaining. So I too will apologize. Perhaps I need to tone it down and respect other folks' likes and preferences.

[Jns2183]

Also, I need to remember that a lot of you live in areas that are notably cooler than here in Lanco. Your chilly 50 degree day might be a very pleasant 60 down here in the sun. 60 in early May feels a lot different than 60 in February. I can tell you that I was sweating profusely on Saturday.  

I think we forgot the essence of spring

The idea that a "normal" April day in the Susquehanna Valley is a comfortable 65/45 split is more of a mathematical ghost than a daily reality. A 30-year rolling window analysis of Harrisburg-Middletown records from 1995 to 2024 reveals that April is less of a steady seasonal climb and more of a chaotic tug-of-war between competing air masses. While 65°F is indeed the mid-month mean, the standard deviation is a staggering 10.5°F—nearly double the volatility seen in the summer months—meaning the "average" is rarely the actual experience.
The statistical distribution for April proves this "battle of extremes." In a stable month like July, about 61% of days fall within 5 degrees of the daily normal. In April, that frequency drops to just 35%. Instead of temperatures clustering around the mean in a standard bell curve, the data shows a flattened, high-dispersion pattern. We are far more likely to be swung into a late-winter cold snap or an early-summer heat spike than to sit at the theoretical average.
By the time May arrives, the atmosphere begins to settle, with the standard deviation tightening and about 41% of days staying near the mean. April, however, remains the ultimate transitional wildcard. The "normal" day exists on paper, but the month is defined by its swings rather than its stats. If you're planning for a 65-degree afternoon, you're betting on the narrow middle ground of a month that statistically prefers to live in the extremes.


[mention=317]Voyager[/mention] your wish on consistency in April is basically a fig dream. That's just not the reality that exists in Pennsylvania. Consistency is for June, July, August

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[WmsptWx]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I happened. I got frustrated because we just finished a top 10 warmest April ever but reading this thread you'd think it was the opposite. Saturday was 8-10 degrees below normal...fine, but there were quite a few days in April that were 20-25 degrees above normal. We've had both warm and cold but the warm has been WAY more dramatic, enough so that it resulted in a well AN month.

Also, that is what defines this time of year. This is not abnormal weather. 

I'm sorry that I lost my wits. I apologize to all of you. 

I think what pisses me off is that right now it's sunny and 75°F and I'm sitting inside working. By the time Saturday rolls around, it'll be cold and wet again. Because at least here, that's how the weekends go in May. This past weekend I got home from my kid's T-Ball game, which was a nightmare because by the time all the pomp and circumcision was finished, it was cold, windy, and wet, and then snowflakes started mixing in with the rain. 

 

Two days later, it's a gorgeous spring day. And the point and click shows more cool and wet on the weekend to where I took time off work tomorrow to mow the grass because it already needs to be done again. 

 

Last year felt worse than this so far, but it seems like the first half of summer is going to be lousy. I can understand in Lancaster, where it's supposed to be warmer, it was. Here it's been a mixed bag. 

[Superstorm]

A lot has to do with perception and law of averages. We had a few really warm days that skew the average to warm.

However, we also had some really cold nights that probably kept us from a top 3 warm April.

April is always a fake out month. We get a day of two of really warm weather then right back to jacket weather. It’s even worse at my place in Connecticut.

Now that we’re in May, we should all be enjoying warmer weather.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I think we forgot the essence of spring

The idea that a "normal" April day in the Susquehanna Valley is a comfortable 65/45 split is more of a mathematical ghost than a daily reality. A 30-year rolling window analysis of Harrisburg-Middletown records from 1995 to 2024 reveals that April is less of a steady seasonal climb and more of a chaotic tug-of-war between competing air masses. While 65°F is indeed the mid-month mean, the standard deviation is a staggering 10.5°F—nearly double the volatility seen in the summer months—meaning the "average" is rarely the actual experience.
The statistical distribution for April proves this "battle of extremes." In a stable month like July, about 61% of days fall within 5 degrees of the daily normal. In April, that frequency drops to just 35%. Instead of temperatures clustering around the mean in a standard bell curve, the data shows a flattened, high-dispersion pattern. We are far more likely to be swung into a late-winter cold snap or an early-summer heat spike than to sit at the theoretical average.
By the time May arrives, the atmosphere begins to settle, with the standard deviation tightening and about 41% of days staying near the mean. April, however, remains the ultimate transitional wildcard. The "normal" day exists on paper, but the month is defined by its swings rather than its stats. If you're planning for a 65-degree afternoon, you're betting on the narrow middle ground of a month that statistically prefers to live in the extremes.


[mention=317]Voyager[/mention] your wish on consistency in April is basically a fig dream. That's just not the reality that exists in Pennsylvania. Consistency is for June, July, August

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THAT is exactly what I was trying to say. Thank you. 

[canderson]

What is the time for Wednesday’s rain? 

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Now that we’re in May, we should all be enjoying warmer weather.

I feel like May is always our coldest non-winter month. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Sunny skies and 75 degrees in Maytown. 

[canderson]

Gorgeous day today. 76 here now. I have to load on for a major conference tmrw and am going to sweat like a pig. 

[mahantango#1]

77 for the high today. A much more enjoyable day weatherwise.

[Voyager]

Got a surprise shower with some thunder a few minutes ago (4:30AM).

Picked up 0.02"...lol

[WmsptWx]

Decent thunder above about an hour ago.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Got a surprise shower with some thunder a few minutes ago (4:30AM).

Picked up 0.02"...lol

Had thunder and lightning and a few drops around 2am. 
I woke last night to the sound of thunder
"How far off?" I sat and wondered

[Mount Joy Snowman]

59 when I left the house. A hot one today before the rain comes. 

[Blizzard of 93]

47 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Had thunder and lightning and a few drops around 2am. 
I woke last night to the sound of thunder
"How far off?" I sat and wondered

Bob Seger lyrics?

[pawatch]

53 degrees this morning. Maybe few pop up showers this morning.

[mahantango#1]

34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Bob Seger lyrics?

You got it!

[Jns2183]

I feel like May is always our coldest non-winter month. 

This comment was a gold mine to explore

We’ve all heard the remark: “May always feels like our coldest non-winter month.” On the surface, that sounds statistically absurd. May is objectively warmer than April by the monthly averages. But “feel” is not just a raw average. It is thermal perception, seasonal expectation, and momentum. April is chaotic: a month of high variance, sharp warm spikes, and sudden spring previews. May, by contrast, often starts by lagging behind the psychological benchmark April just created.
That is the core of the Seasonal Slow-Start. April frequently sets a thermal ceiling so high that May takes days, and sometimes weeks, to consistently breach it. Using historical records for Middletown-Harrisburg (PATMDT), 1893–2026, I tracked the first date in May when temperatures reached or exceeded several April benchmarks. The result is the “Catch-Up Date.” In over 52% of years, May does not produce a single afternoon as warm as April’s peak until after May 15. Even more striking, in nearly 70% of years, May does not produce a sustained five-day warm stretch equal to April’s best until the final ten days of the month.
This is why early May can feel so weirdly disappointing. The month is warmer on paper, but it often opens beneath the emotional standard April already set. When the data is normalized using era-adjusted Z-scores based on a trailing 30-year weighted rolling mean, the effect becomes clearer: after a very warm April, early May can register as a real regression. Compared with other spring and early-summer transitions, May is the outlier. March usually catches February’s top warmth quickly, June catches May quickly, and July catches June almost immediately. But May takes until the second week, on average, to catch April’s top-three warmth. That delay is the statistical footprint of the “cold May” feeling.

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[Itstrainingtime]

Sunny and 84 at 2pm. 

[AccuChris]

This comment was a gold mine to explore

We’ve all heard the remark: “May always feels like our coldest non-winter month.” On the surface, that sounds statistically absurd. May is objectively warmer than April by the monthly averages. But “feel” is not just a raw average. It is thermal perception, seasonal expectation, and momentum. April is chaotic: a month of high variance, sharp warm spikes, and sudden spring previews. May, by contrast, often starts by lagging behind the psychological benchmark April just created.
That is the core of the Seasonal Slow-Start. April frequently sets a thermal ceiling so high that May takes days, and sometimes weeks, to consistently breach it. Using historical records for Middletown-Harrisburg (PATMDT), 1893–2026, I tracked the first date in May when temperatures reached or exceeded several April benchmarks. The result is the “Catch-Up Date.” In over 52% of years, May does not produce a single afternoon as warm as April’s peak until after May 15. Even more striking, in nearly 70% of years, May does not produce a sustained five-day warm stretch equal to April’s best until the final ten days of the month.
This is why early May can feel so weirdly disappointing. The month is warmer on paper, but it often opens beneath the emotional standard April already set. When the data is normalized using era-adjusted Z-scores based on a trailing 30-year weighted rolling mean, the effect becomes clearer: after a very warm April, early May can register as a real regression. Compared with other spring and early-summer transitions, May is the outlier. March usually catches February’s top warmth quickly, June catches May quickly, and July catches June almost immediately. But May takes until the second week, on average, to catch April’s top-three warmth. That delay is the statistical footprint of the “cold May” feeling.

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[WmsptWx]

Mow #2 is in the books. Finally feeling like I've caught up to the growth of the last year. Holy hell.

[SnowPlowGuy88]

3 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

Mow #2 is in the books. Finally feeling like I've caught up to the growth of the last year. Holy hell.

Mow #5 for me and a blade sharpening prior to it. I almost blew up my shed, sent sparks into it with my angle grinder, near to my fuel cans. I stopped and gathered myself, and another beer, and all was successful. 

[mahantango#1]

84 was the high today. Nice day, wind could have been calmer.

[Ruin]

On 5/4/2026 at 2:44 AM, Jns2183 said:

It's a lot more than rain goes into that. You have to look at absorption vs run off vs evapotranspiration. We have baked all April. I only got about 55% of normal preceiptitation. Go look at the PEMN sites on pa climate website. They have soil moisture at 3-5 different depths. That really tells the story. This super El nino building is not good either

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I did some stuff outback ground is pretty green and wet dug down a bit to plant a new tree in the back yard and moisture content was very high. the landscaping crew told me only to water it a little after planting since the ground lvl water table is high. So yeah we had a short period in april where we got way hotter then normal. but last 2 weeks aside from this tuesday we have been very cool to cold over night. 3 times last week I had frost on my car at 530-6am getting out of work.