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snowman19
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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr now takes the convection further north like the nam is showing 

You can blindly forecast that without any models, and 75-80% of the time you'd be right.  That's been a multi-year trend, and I can easily see most of our frontal passages and pop up thunderstorm forecasts resulting in exactly that for this season too.  It's probably the reason drought conditions are generally worse as you get closer to the east coast (although for now not right on the coast).

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9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:
euro and euro ai has 1-2 inches for us tomorrow early evening


The National Weather Service disagrees. Here is the 2:00pm updated disco:

“The cold front should move through early Thursday morning, so
after a relatively mild Wednesday night with lows in the 40s,
winds switch quickly to the NW as a continental polar air mass
moves in. High temps in the 50s will likely be achieved in the
morning, with temps falling into the 40s after fropa, and then
to the upper 20s and 30s Thu night. Post-frontal rain showers
could mix with or change to wet snow showers just before precip
ends. Boundary temps will be noticeably milder than aloft, so
any wet snowflakes will have difficulty accumulating.

Liquid precipitation amounts are likely to range from 1/4 to 1/2
inch, with the higher amts from NYC north/west where stronger
showers/thunderstorms are expected.”

Forecast for Rockland County:

“Thursday
Rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Temperature falling to around 40 by 9am. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.”

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4 minutes ago, Picard said:

You can blindly forecast that without any models, and 75-80% of the time you'd be right.  That's been a multi-year trend, and I can easily see most of our frontal passages and pop up thunderstorm forecasts resulting in exactly that for this season too.  It's probably the reason drought conditions are generally worse as you get closer to the east coast (although for now not right on the coast).

We'll see. Now it has heavy stuff moving through the metro after 9pm

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25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


The National Weather Service disagrees. Here is the 2:00pm updated disco:

“The cold front should move through early Thursday morning, so
after a relatively mild Wednesday night with lows in the 40s,
winds switch quickly to the NW as a continental polar air mass
moves in. High temps in the 50s will likely be achieved in the
morning, with temps falling into the 40s after fropa, and then
to the upper 20s and 30s Thu night. Post-frontal rain showers
could mix with or change to wet snow showers just before precip
ends. Boundary temps will be noticeably milder than aloft, so
any wet snowflakes will have difficulty accumulating.

Liquid precipitation amounts are likely to range from 1/4 to 1/2
inch, with the higher amts from NYC north/west where stronger
showers/thunderstorms are expected.”

Forecast for Rockland County:

“Thursday
Rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Temperature falling to around 40 by 9am. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.”

Thats good for them

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