Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

In all seriousness, my one takeaway from the early mostly-joke mesos is that they try to be snow with that second portion at the start. That would be a good trend.

That’s an approach angle we all like. Models have gotten a little more thumpy with that 

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Since this is kind of a joke event, why not randomly post the ARW control. We can dream!

Sterling needs to issues WSWs now. 

[NorthArlington101]

ICON - all the afternoon. Some FRZA overnight. All models have temps cold enough at the surface... precip seems to do enough wherever it falls for this to accumulate on the grass, at least.

[Scraff]

We are all about to get caught with our pants down. 

[NorthArlington101]

RGEM looks like a general ~1" of snow before light icing

[MountainGeek]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sterling needs to issues WSWs now. 

Roads were heavily brined out here in WV today -- I'm confident it's a sign that something may or may not happen. 

[NorthArlington101]

It's a lock

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a lock

Another 20-30 miles north with the juice on basically every 0z model

[DDweatherman]

@NorthArlington101 I don’t think it’s any coincidence the models have all slowed this down just a handful of hours each suite, which has also allowed it to push more north each time. Slower has equaled north and a bit more “amped” if we want to call it that. Definitely lets the boundary recede a bit more and also helps set the track for the part 2

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a lock

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

[MountainGeek]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

Yup Philly is absolutely toast for this one. 

[NorthArlington101]

[mention=9980]NorthArlington101[/mention] I don’t think it’s any coincidence the models have all slowed this down just a handful of hours each suite, which has also allowed it to push more north each time. Slower has equaled north and a bit more “amped” if we want to call it that. Definitely lets the boundary recede a bit more and also helps set the track for the part 2

I see norther and wetter - idk if I see slower, but I’m not paying a crazy amount of attention to timing. Still feel like this band rolls in between 1-3pm.

Def want Pt. 2 to be more amped. Very skeptical of the GFS solution but that’s what gets someone from a lucky 1-2” to have someone push 3”.

[DDweatherman]

The AI GFS has gotten a little wetter and north for both part 1 and 2 for quite a few consecutive runs. Op seems to move right in line with it. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I see norther and wetter - idk if I see slower, but I’m not paying a crazy amount of attention to timing. Still feel like this band rolls in between 1-3pm.

Def want Pt. 2 to be more amped. Very skeptical of the GFS solution but that’s what gets someone from a lucky 1-2” to have someone push 3”.

Eh, toggling the GFS I guess I can see 3hrs slower. I guess it couldn’t hurt to be closer to darkness 

[high risk]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

 

  yeah, clearly a rain sounding.      

Spoiler

 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

  yeah, clearly a rain sounding.      

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Was clicking around on some soundings and some models seem to have a sneaky good alignment of lift and the DGZ for a band tomorrow somewhere between DC and Baltimore. We got a saturated upper atmosphere so once the surface moistens I think it would actually be a very pretty winter afternoon for someone. 

[87storms]

I’m fully expecting that Frederick gets no snow from the initial precip and the later round comes in as sleet/rain.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

I’m fully expecting that Frederick gets no snow from the initial precip and the later round comes in as sleet/rain.

You’re due, 2” for you

[NorthArlington101]

Was clicking around on some soundings and some models seem to have a sneaky good alignment of lift and the DGZ for a band tomorrow somewhere between DC and Baltimore. We got a saturated upper atmosphere so once the surface moistens I think it would actually be a very pretty winter afternoon for someone. 

Been noticing the Kuchera is greater than 10:1 so that helps with the context here - thanks!

Just hoping it’s for DC and notsomuch parts between

[stormtracker]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia.  But prob will be for this one 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Been noticing the Kuchera is greater than 10:1 so that helps with the context here - thanks!

Just hoping it’s for DC and notsomuch parts between

Some models have it better than others. Though enough show something of that sort where I'm cautiously hopeful. Don't really know where this lift is coming from but GFS and mesos show some 850-700mb temp advection and resulting FGEN which I guess will be something to watch tomorrow.  I'm trying to finish my Modern Political Theory essay on Hobbes from home tomorrow ("spring" break) so some nice ambiance would be cool. 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Some models have it better than others. Though enough show something of that sort where I'm cautiously hopeful. Don't really know where this lift is coming from but GFS and mesos show some 850-700mb temp advection and resulting FGEN which I guess will be something to watch tomorrow.  I'm trying to finish my Modern Political Theory essay on Hobbes from home tomorrow ("spring" break) so some nice ambiance would be cool. 

Perfect placement here. Just needs to hold for a few more hours. 

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You’re due, 2” for you

I don’t want to steal snow from Reagan and Dulles. I’m actually rooting for them to score for the snowfall contest.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Perfect placement here. Just needs to hold for a few more hours. 

Can’t wait to see pretty flakes flash melting on contact. 

[jayyy]

I’m up in New York visiting my dad - he’s unfortunately very sick. I’ve been up here since the big storm cleared out last week. 3” also fell the 2-3 days following the blizzard.

Back home in Maryland WOULD last minute luck into some accumulating snow (in early march) while I’m not there. Book it. The GFS / SREF CONTROL score a coup and someone sees 4”. Prob my backyard. My dad says you’re welcome, weenies.

All jokes aside… hope y’all get one last beautiful look at winter. Enjoy it for me

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I’m up in New York visiting my dad - he’s unfortunately very sick. I’ve been up here since the big storm cleared out last week. 3” also fell the 2-3 days following the blizzard.

Back home in Maryland WOULD last minute luck into some accumulating snow (in early march) while I’m not there. Book it. The GFS / SREF CONTROL score a coup and someone sees 4”. Prob my backyard. My dad says you’re welcome, weenies.

All jokes aside… hope y’all get one last beautiful look at winter. Enjoy it for me

Sorry to hear about your dad dude. And don’t worry, we’re paying attention but prob won’t see much out of this. 

[katabatic]

2 hours ago, MountainGeek said:

Roads were heavily brined out here in WV today -- I'm confident it's a sign that something may or may not happen. 

I just drove back home from Richmond tonight and noticed the brining. I travel this route (259 to 48) probably 15-20 times a year and don't remember ever seeing them brined like that.