Wxtrix Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes. east of the Potomac where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: If something like this actually occurs, that would be quite something! Boom potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If this comes to fruition the GFS is a champ, and all other guidance are chumps. It figured out the complex interplay of the individual pieces of vorticity and once it locked on it never waivered. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic. It struck on a Sunday night. I was supposed to report for my first day of work at DTNSRDC in Carderock, Md (Potomac River near Bethesda) Monday morning but of course that never happened. In fact, it wasn't until the next Monday that work opened. Expecting a tolerable 4" of overnight snow I woke up to what I thought was fog outside. With the onset of daylight I about fainted when I realized that "fog" was torrential snow. Cars were completely buried and drifts were to the top of storefronts. Tractors were used to clear Georgia Avenue (Georgian Towers in Silver Spring.) https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Absolute misery rn. I need to go down the block and buy crack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Wow. What's 50th percentile look like? Almost exactly the same, which is what you would expect at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Climate175 said: If something like this actually occurs, that would be quite something! Boom potential. That's the one my parents experienced like 2 weeks after moving here from South Africa in '79. No shovel. Dug out with a baking sheet and wondered wtf they'd gotten themselves into... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Almost exactly the same, which is what would expect at this point. It’s on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 CIPS is beginning to like this more. Top 12z, bottom 00z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: It struck on a Sunday night. I was supposed to report for my first day of work at DTNSRDC in Carderock, Md (Potomac River near Bethesda) Monday morning but of course that never happened. In fact, it wasn't until the next Monday that work opened. Expecting a tolerable 4" of overnight snow I woke up to what I thought was fog outside. With the onset of daylight I about fainted when I realized that "fog" was torrential snow. Cars were completely buried and drift were to the top of storefronts. Tractors were used to clear Georgia Avenue (Georgian Towers in Silver Spring.) https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979 President's Day 1 Blizzard in February 1979 here in southern MD is the gold standard for winter storms......bar none. Extreme rates, surprise factor, massive drifting, low temperatures. That storm had it all. This one isn't a cold storm. But it could be a wet paste bomb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 38 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: February 11th 1983 Thundersnow . Got 1” in12 minutes and 3” in one hour. Highest one hour and around those muffled thunderclaps the flake size was huge and blinding 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: It’s on Pretty much every member depicts the same thing. Like no spread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 27 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I can't remember the last time we saw the modeling break to the GFS like this. Absolutely amazing to see. I imagine DT is utterly apoplectic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 38 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I would shit a brick if we got a redux of that. It’s still my Dad’s favorite rates driven event. Said he’s never seen snowflakes bigger than he did from that one. Some of the flakes were very close to Pringle's size slowly floating down and then in a torrent around thunderclaps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: It struck on a Sunday night. I was supposed to report for my first day of work at DTNSRDC in Carderock, Md (Potomac River near Bethesda) Monday morning but of course that never happened. In fact, it wasn't until the next Monday that work opened. Expecting a tolerable 4" of overnight snow I woke up to what I thought was fog outside. With the onset of daylight I about fainted when I realized that "fog" was torrential snow. Cars were completely buried and drift were to the top of storefronts. Tractors were used to clear Georgia Avenue (Georgian Towers in Silver Spring.) https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979 It was super dry powder. I stayed up all night and watched as the cars in our driveway disappeared. Super easy to shovel and I had it all shoveled before the rest of my family finished their first cup of coffee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 LWX hasnt updated there snow map since 2;44pm great... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: President's Day 1 Blizzard in February 1979 here in southern MD is the gold standard for winter storms......bar none. Extreme rates, surprise factor, massive drifting, low temperatures. That storm had it all. This one isn't a cold storm. But it could be a wet paste bomb. We had very little of the wind in eastern MoCo, unless my memory is failing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: Been a while since I’ve had a chance to get back in here to see what’s shakin….and this gem of a storm is what @MillvilleWx has thoughts of!? I’m not sure I have enough beer in the house! ETA: Nah. I’m full of shit. I got enough for everyone in here currently to have 2-3 beers each. No more. No less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: I imagine DT is utterly apoplectic. https://x.com/i/status/2024564778669395990 Think this answers your question and to be fair the majority of us thought the GFS op runs from those timeframes were BS too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: I imagine DT is utterly apoplectic. This was what he posted on his Facebook page one day ago... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 25 minutes ago, mappy said: The surface is 36, so it’s falling as snow and probably 50/50 mix of snow/rain at the surface. The model is outputting it as rain in reflectivity probably bc the surface temp being 36 It looks like maybe last 900 feet are above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: If this comes to fruition the GFS is a champ, and all other guidance are chumps. It figured out the complex interplay of the individual pieces of vorticity and once it locked on it never waivered. Can't be said enough. The GFS is a perfectly fine model. It doesn't verify as well as the Euro because with all the work on the dynamical core and DA system there's a backlog in all the other bread and butter parts of running a model - obs QC, error parameterization, physics parameters, bias correction etc. etc. It's not "broken" and a few bad performances doesn't mean it will always do worse than other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 23 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Play Cafe Reggie’s by Issac Hayes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Where's Chuck? Cowbell +PNA baby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 euro runnin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again. Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s. Euro AI running. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again. Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s. Euro AI running. Bring us home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 No pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro AI east 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again. Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s. Euro AI running. Hey you're good, man. I don't think Randy was referring to you earlier--it ain't easy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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