2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Wxtrix]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes. 

 

east of the Potomac where? 

[Climate175]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If something like this actually occurs, that would be quite something! Boom potential.

[CAPE]

If this comes to fruition the GFS is a champ, and all other guidance are chumps. It figured out the complex interplay of the individual pieces of vorticity and once it locked on it never waivered.

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic.

It struck on a Sunday night. I was supposed to report for my first day of work at DTNSRDC in Carderock, Md (Potomac River near Bethesda) Monday morning but of course that never happened. In fact, it wasn't until the next Monday that work opened. Expecting a tolerable 4" of overnight snow I woke up to what I thought was fog outside. With the onset of daylight I about fainted when I realized that "fog" was torrential snow. Cars were completely buried and drifts were to the top of storefronts. Tractors were used to clear Georgia Avenue (Georgian Towers in Silver Spring.) 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979

[TowsonWeather]

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Absolute misery rn.  I need to go down the block and buy crack.

 

 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Wow. What's 50th percentile look like?

Almost exactly the same, which is what you would expect at this point.

[TowsonWeather]

2 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

If something like this actually occurs, that would be quite something! Boom potential.

That's the one my parents experienced like 2 weeks after moving here from South Africa in '79. No shovel. Dug out with a baking sheet and wondered wtf they'd gotten themselves into...

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Almost exactly the same, which is what would expect at this point.

It’s on

[baltosquid]

CIPS is beginning to like this more. Top 12z, bottom 00z.

[southmdwatcher]

7 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

It struck on a Sunday night. I was supposed to report for my first day of work at DTNSRDC in Carderock, Md (Potomac River near Bethesda) Monday morning but of course that never happened. In fact, it wasn't until the next Monday that work opened. Expecting a tolerable 4" of overnight snow I woke up to what I thought was fog outside. With the onset of daylight I about fainted when I realized that "fog" was torrential snow. Cars were completely buried and drift were to the top of storefronts. Tractors were used to clear Georgia Avenue (Georgian Towers in Silver Spring.) 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979

President's Day 1 Blizzard in February 1979 here in southern MD is the gold standard for winter storms......bar none. Extreme rates, surprise factor, massive drifting, low temperatures. That storm had it all. This one isn't a cold storm. But it could be a wet paste bomb.

[WEATHER53]

38 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

February 11th 1983

Thundersnow . Got 1” in12 minutes and 3” in one hour.  Highest one hour and around those muffled thunderclaps the flake size was huge and blinding 

 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

It’s on

Pretty much every member depicts the same thing. Like no spread.

[Silver Meteor]

27 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I can't remember the last time we saw the modeling break to the GFS like this. Absolutely amazing to see.

 

 

I imagine DT is utterly apoplectic. 

[WEATHER53]

38 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I would shit a brick if we got a redux of that. It’s still my Dad’s favorite rates driven event. Said he’s never seen snowflakes bigger than he did from that one. 

Some of the flakes were very close to Pringle's size slowly floating down and then in a torrent around thunderclaps 

[AU74]

10 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

It struck on a Sunday night. I was supposed to report for my first day of work at DTNSRDC in Carderock, Md (Potomac River near Bethesda) Monday morning but of course that never happened. In fact, it wasn't until the next Monday that work opened. Expecting a tolerable 4" of overnight snow I woke up to what I thought was fog outside. With the onset of daylight I about fainted when I realized that "fog" was torrential snow. Cars were completely buried and drift were to the top of storefronts. Tractors were used to clear Georgia Avenue (Georgian Towers in Silver Spring.) 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979

It was super dry powder. I stayed up all night and watched as the cars in our driveway disappeared. Super easy to shovel and I had it all shoveled before the rest of my family finished their first cup of coffee.

[Jake Wx]

LWX hasnt updated there snow map since 2;44pm great...

[AU74]

8 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

President's Day 1 Blizzard in February 1979 here in southern MD is the gold standard for winter storms......bar none. Extreme rates, surprise factor, massive drifting, low temperatures. That storm had it all. This one isn't a cold storm. But it could be a wet paste bomb.

We had very little of the wind in eastern MoCo, unless my memory is failing me.

[Scraff]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Been a while since I’ve had a chance to get back in here to see what’s shakin….and this gem of a storm is what @MillvilleWx has thoughts of!? I’m not sure I have enough beer in the house! 
 

ETA: Nah. I’m full of shit. I got enough for everyone in here currently to have 2-3 beers each. No more. No less. 

[tstate21]

9 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

I imagine DT is utterly apoplectic. 

https://x.com/i/status/2024564778669395990 Think this answers your question and to be fair the majority of us thought the GFS op runs from those timeframes were BS too. 

[TowsonWeather]

10 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

I imagine DT is utterly apoplectic. 

This was what he posted on his Facebook page one day ago...

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

The surface is 36, so it’s falling as snow and probably 50/50 mix of snow/rain at the surface. The model is outputting it as rain in reflectivity probably bc the surface temp being 36

It looks like maybe last 900 feet are above freezing?

[LordBaltimore]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If this comes to fruition the GFS is a champ, and all other guidance are chumps. It figured out the complex interplay of the individual pieces of vorticity and once it locked on it never waivered.

Can't be said enough. The GFS is a perfectly fine model. It doesn't verify as well as the Euro because with all the work on the dynamical core and DA system there's a backlog in all the other bread and butter parts of running a model - obs QC, error parameterization, physics parameters, bias correction etc. etc. It's not "broken" and a few bad performances doesn't mean it will always do worse than other models.

[WEATHER53]

23 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

 

 

Play Cafe Reggie’s  by Issac Hayes 

[CAPE]

Where's Chuck? 

Cowbell +PNA baby

[Jake Wx]

euro runnin

[bncho]

It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again.

Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s.

Euro AI running.

[IUsedToHateCold]

Just now, bncho said:

It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again.

Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s.

Euro AI running.

Bring us home. 

[jviper]

No pressure. 

[bncho]

Euro AI east

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again.

Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s.

Euro AI running.

Hey you're good, man. I don't think Randy was referring to you earlier--it ain't easy!