2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Every run is deeper and closer to the coast.

And that should help pull down cold air and cool the column with heavier rates

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Depends on rates

Indeed. Which is why in my hot UHI backyard im gonna be sweating thermals. Maybe the mesos will show better temps and I can stop worrying 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

still a bit more to come for east of the bay after this panel.

Whatever the real amounts will be...this is why we here in Baltimore sweat more than most. Always right on the edge--have no clue where I fall with this one. In the past my yard has occasionally been just close enough to get some love when the upper eastern shore gets slammed. But other times not so much, lol

[DDweatherman]

Given the 18z euro ropes us in often, I expect today to be a good happy hour run. 12z and it’s ensembles and AI were good improvements. 

[baltosquid]

UKMET not much different than 12z, maybe norther, rather than west/east changes. Low center is a tick W/NW and 986->981mb at hr57 but the precip isn't doing it for us.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but why does it feel like we can never get that in a nina though? Stuff seems to want to stay at the coast but not in it, lol Yes I'm being picky but ya know...

I know this is your thread, but maybe keep the nina talk in banter? Just for storm mode

(mods, if you disagree, feel free to remove my post)

[bncho]

Wow

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Wow

 

Yet another tick west. Maybe some members capture the better surface based on improved H5. 

I think you and I are in for a nail biter given our location both in the beginning with temps and the back edge towards the end

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Wow

That's a power grid killer right now.

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know this is your thread, but maybe keep the nina talk in banter? Just for storm mode

(mods, if you disagree, feel free to remove my post)

Agree with you

[baltosquid]

Big jump in probability for >4" 10:1. We're shedding bust members.

 

Edit: slower

[yoda]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Big jump in probability for >4" 10:1. We're shedding bust members.

Can you slow down the gif?  Like its too fast to parse the changes

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Can you slow down the gif?  Like its too fast to parse the changes

slowed it

[CAPE]

This is a hell of a setup with that deep h5 trough and a negative tilt. Given there really isnt a true NA block- that 50-50 low is in the perfect spot for this event but is on the move and hauls ass up into the NA just beyond. But with it there, it keeps HP in a near ideal place to feed somewhat colder southward into the storm as it intensifies. Talk about threading a needle. Who knows if the low will be that tucked as it deepens, but damn that's fun to look at.. yeah baby

 

[MillvilleWx]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Straight up porn from WPC-

@MillvilleWx

*** Nor'easter develops off Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday with impacts in the Northeast through Monday ***

Complex phasing evolution between a strong n/s shortwave and s/s disturbance migrating east out of the Rockies will generate a significant SLP maturation along the Atlantic seaboard with appreciable impacts poised for a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Trends the last 24hrs have favored a cleaner phase scenario with the 500mb height pattern amplifying once east of the Mississippi, negatively tilting as the pattern evolves downstream into the Ohio Valley and east coast. Model discrepancies are beginning to shrink with the majority of ensemble members now showing a more "tucked" SLP solution, albeit location of primary coastal is still being worked out as it reaches the latitude of MD/DE which would imply fairly robust implications in terms of the positioning of the CCB development and accompanying norlun (inverted) trough axis that will likely develop due to the phasing pattern and 500mb ULL progression across the central and southern Mid Atlantic. Sensible weather pattern will likely begin early Sunday morning with a light precip field entering the central and southern Mid Atlantic, encroaching a relatively benign antecedent airmass with the lower PBL likely to be marginal or just too warm for snowfall until you get further north closer to the Mason Dixon and northwest of the fall line in the Piedmont where wetbulb temps are forecast to be near freezing at precip onset. Further south off the Carolina coast, surface cyclogenesis will materialize within a strengthening diffluent axis ahead of the amplifying mean trough, and within the LER of a strong upper jet rounding the trough base across the Southern Mid Atlantic. As this evolution materializes over the course of Sunday, expectation is for the precip field to blossom with height falls encroaching the region allowing for reputable diabatic cooling to aid in lower PBL temperatures to cool, thus changing the primary hydrometeors from a mixture of liquid/solid, to all solid, implying a shift to snowfall with a favored collapse of the rain/snow line from northwest to southeast. As this occurs, expectation is for rates to begin picking up under the influence of an ULL passage across VA leading to heightened ascent north of the closed 500mb progression with increasing coverage of banding structures as the dynamical processes begin to mature. Cross- sections from most of the numerical suite indicate appreciable omega across the central Mid Atlantic over to the Delmarva and points northeast as the system continues to evolve and the cyclone deepens rapidly off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas furthest west from the primary surface low will, at the very least be under a threat from a maturing norlun trough that is pretty well-defined within several of the main NWP outputs, including the global deterministic. This area will be a relatively narrow corridor of heavy precip with significant ascent allowing for a band of heavy snow to develop and slowly progress east- northeast through the storms life cycle. Some guidance goes as far as a full "capture" at the mid-levels which allows for the surface low off the Atlantic coast to slow considerably and tuck closer to the coast allowing for a more pronounced coastal enhancement to be thrown back further west with a robust QPF distribution within a defined CCB axis that will develop to the west of the surface reflection. These outputs are generating the more significant snowfall accumulations across the Mid Atlantic to Southern New England in NWP output. That is only one potential outcome however, as current cluster analysis indicates two other viable scenarios that still deliver solid snowfall totals, but not as pronounced due to a lower influence directly from the coastal. Inverted trough axis is most likely to benefit areas west of the Chesapeake Bay up into PA with the coastal impacts likely to be felt from coastal Delmarva up through coastal NJ, Eastern LI, and Southeast New England. These areas have seen an appreciable uptick in the prob fields for all reputable totals, but especially >6", which is up to 40-80% across the aforementioned areas. The areas with more question marks are further west and northwest away from the coastal areas just due to potentially missing the coastal enhancement and losing some of the precip to the marginal airmass presence. That said, this setup is forecast to be very dynamic with appreciable ascent within the column with a favorable 850-500mb evolution capable of producing snowfall rates >1"/hr for hours, even within that norlun trough axis that will develop.

Thanks man. I put a lot of effort into that one. A lot to go over. I’m hoping everything materializes and we all get some solid fun from this one. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Agree with you

My bad.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z runs tomorrow are me go/no go for this. I certainly would love to out with a bang. Just go bull bore on this.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks man. I put a lot of effort into that one. A lot to go over. I’m hoping everything materializes and we all get some solid fun from this one. 

Honestly I’m not that bright but that was one of the best write ups i have ever seen. Extremely detailed and really easy to understand. Amazing job. You aren’t being kicked off the forum anytime soon. 

[davidjd1114]

Winter Storm Watch in York


.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks man. I put a lot of effort into that one. A lot to go over. I’m hoping everything materializes and we all get some solid fun from this one. 

It was well written. Nicely done.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a hell of a setup with that deep h5 trough and a negative tilt. Given there really isnt a true NA block- that 50-50 low is in the perfect spot for this event but is on the move and hauls ass up into the NA just beyond. But with it there, it keeps HP in a near ideal place to feed somewhat colder southward into the storm as it intensifies. Talk about threading a needle. Who knows if the low will be that tucked as it deepens, but damn that's fun to look at.. yeah baby

 

I was gonna ask about the technical discussion  Any analogs apply to this kind of setup?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I was gonna ask about the technical discussion  Any analogs apply to this kind of setup?

Here’s an actual good analog: 2/1966

[CAPE]

Where is Chuck?

I got a fever, and the only prescription.. is more +PNA baby!

[Nomz]

We’re close enough we can will this one home

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I was gonna ask about the technical discussion  Any analogs apply to this kind of setup?

There are always analogs, but at this point who cares lol. PSU would be the one to ask.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are always analogs, but at this point who cares lol. PSU would be the one to ask.

Jan 26, 2011 is the closest I can think of: 

• https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Jan-11.html
• https://www.weather.gov/lwx/20110126snow

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the 18z GEFS is more amped, further west, and more liquid. Very good to see.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the 18z GEFS is more amped, further west, and more liquid. Very good to see.

Gefs is close to double the Gfs operational imby. Lol

[Cobalt]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Jan 26, 2011 is the closest I can think of: 

• https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Jan-11.html
• https://www.weather.gov/lwx/20110126snow

This was showing up in the CIPS analogs yesterday. Alongside it were March 2013, Jan 1987, March 2018 (the one which clipped the Eastern Shore and jumped to Boston), along with a few misses.

[CAPE]

Well shit